GLD up or down in 2014

[murray t turtle]

My guess is up..2014 should have more vol in stocks. Right now with the market "over priced" GLD should have some attraction.

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Good points Rich Rimes.

Most of GLD, gold trends are up. most time frames;
some shorts may want to get short. Thats fine, short s help fuel the rally, as Art Cashin so wisely worded it, on CNBC one day
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[badnewsbear]

GLD couldn't break 125, went as high as 124.96 until dropping. Possible top. Added to my short position.

 

[SBanana]

Slightly higher , maybe touching the 1300

 

[trefoil]

Already past that, at 1306 as I write this. As usual, both the bulls and bears in the gold mkt completely misunderstand the underlying reason for why it moves. Which is fine, since in the gap created by that misunderstanding is always where I've made my money with this asset.

 

[badnewsbear]

It definitely popped after breaking through a key technical. Bought 1200 shares of DUST @20.

 

[trefoil]

It definitely popped after breaking through a key technical. Bought 1200 shares of DUST @20.

I think you're being suicidal, but that's alright.
Just because I'm feeling generous, or something, some data: Cleveland Fed's Inflation Expectations Page.
What counts here is the real interest rate. In the Excel you can download at the bottom of the page is the 1 month and 1 year real interest rate according to their method. Simplistically, it's a bad idea to be [Dennis Gartman]short of gold[/Dennis Gartman] when real interest rates are negative and getting more so, although the relationship is pretty complex. This isn't the only thing I look at when deciding about gold, but it has a pretty high weighting in my decision process.
The data on this page is updated once a month and is just about due for its next update.

 

[badnewsbear]

I think you're being suicidal, but that's alright.
Just because I'm feeling generous, or something, some data: Cleveland Fed's Inflation Expectations Page.
What counts here is the real interest rate. In the Excel you can download at the bottom of the page is the 1 month and 1 year real interest rate according to their method. Simplistically, it's a bad idea to be [Dennis Gartman]short of gold[/Dennis Gartman] when real interest rates are negative and getting more so, although the relationship is pretty complex. This isn't the only thing I look at when deciding about gold, but it has a pretty high weighting in my decision process.
The data on this page is updated once a month and is just about due for its next update.

That data doesn't mean anything. Gold is a play on fear and the US dollar. The dollar/yen trade has been getting crushed all this year so far. One good jobs report and the rally is over.

I would win in this trade either way, whether gold goes to 1400 or 1000. Let's say gold breaks 1400 and hovers (which it won't), and DUST goes to 15, well I write that loss off and pay less in taxes on my long stock gains. So I pay much less in taxes on my profits. It's a win win in either direction, but obviously a bit more if gold goes to 1000 by year end.

 

[trefoil]

That data doesn't mean anything. Gold is a play on fear and the US dollar.

That's what everyone thinks. Everyone also thinks the Fed is effective.
Neither are true, but then most people have never read Galbraith (old, dead, and worst of all, Keynesian) and never even heard of Paul Einzig (all three of the above AND a freakin Brit to boot) nor would they even understand Einzig's books if they bothered to find and read them, all of which is fine by me.

 

[Van Halen]

Long GLD off the 2 standard deviation downside move that 2013 provided.

Long off the 2 std dev move still working out. As I see it, the next level of resistance (GC) is up around 1343.

 

[badnewsbear]

That's what everyone thinks. Everyone also thinks the Fed is effective.
Neither are true, but then most people have never read Galbraith (old, dead, and worst of all, Keynesian) and never even heard of Paul Einzig (all three of the above AND a freakin Brit to boot) nor would they even understand Einzig's books if they bothered to find and read them, all of which is fine by me.

If you disagree that the Fed has extraordinary influence over the stock market, I have nothing else to say to you.