Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[dbphoenix]

Take bar 3 for example. Obviously it's easy to see now that prices above 60 were rejected. However in general how far do you let price move? Until the ticker rejects a price we do not know what is going to happen. So once the ticker gets to 60 and it doesn't reject then what. How much room do we give it? What if price gets to 70 before a rejection?

Bar 6 for example as well. We have moved up from 30 to 50 and in one bar moved up over 10 points. Seeing what happens next makes it easier to say one thing or the other but in real time how do you let price come back 20 points. Is it the given amount of time in that move up that causes you to say ok we are moving up but not as fast as down at the moment? Are we thinking price rejected up from 50 so now we give price room even if it's 20 points to see if there is any more interest in prices above 50 since the previous rejection in bar 2?

Replay it and watch the right tick.

 

[eminiman414]

might be a silly question. Should I watch in the same interval as the chart that was provided? Watch the whole day again or just the areas surrounding the highlighted bars?

 

[Gringo]

I don't think price is moving up 10 points from the entry. It's once the gain is in place it is happening. For someone looking at the 1 min and only using lines, this might get troublesome as the SL is bound to break and price continues up. For a person looking at the gradual decline of value areas this might not be as difficult.

We know a few things:

1. Price turned before even getting to the mean - sign of weakness.
2. The other end of the extreme diagonally is somewhere around the 20's or 30's - lots of distance to cover before price gets oversold.
3. Price is heading lower because of value areas stacked one after the other stepping down - down trend.

Whether one can withstand this in 1 min I don't know but yes, someone without issues and not worried about keeping gains might be able to pull this off.

 

[gears]

I suggest that anyone who is interested in this post a chart of this morning's activity, finding those bars and levels which provide information that can be used to make real-time decisions. This is after all a large part of what trade review is all about.

Is this along the lines of what you're suggesting?

 

[dbphoenix]

might be a silly question. Should I watch in the same interval as the chart that was provided? Watch the whole day again or just the areas surrounding the highlighted bars?

The market moves in ticks. It doesn't care how you illustrate its moves. So use whatever you like. The pushes and pulls and rejections and continuations are there whether you see them or not.

 

[dbphoenix]

Is this along the lines of what you're suggesting?

You're in the ballpark. Accepting the fact that the morning pretty much sucked, you can't know in advance what kind of morning you're going to have. Which makes understanding this interplay all the more important.

Where might you have tried your first short?

 

[gears]

You're in the ballpark. Accepting the fact that the morning pretty much sucked, you can't know in advance what kind of morning you're going to have. Which makes understanding this interplay all the more important.

Where might you have tried your first short?

I'll tell you where I did try my first short. I wanted to stay out of the overnight range. I didn't know if it would be a roller coaster up and down between those 15 points. So I waited for it to be cleared. I "should" have noted the lack of a HH at 0948 and used that as an entry spot, but I didn't. I waited too long.

I went short on the RET just before the HL around 0955. It was followed by a HL and took off up. I scratched. For the morning, it was the worst place to try to enter a short.

 

[gears]

In the world of CWS, I would like to think that I would have seen the rejection of 3513, the movement of price below the last swing low (for the up move), the LH at 0932/33 and the RET there. But that timeframe is also right after the open when things are more chaotic than usual.

A more realistic entry for my knowledge level should have been after price couldn't get above the LSH around 0944.

 

[trip]

Where might you have tried your first short?

My first entry today was 09:34 at 3508. As I trade using Spandex it was good for a few points.

You've really given us something to ponder today. I think I should do away with the Spandex and get naked soon. Moving from observing to pressing buttons has shifted my perception to the worse.

Edit: Correct entry price was 3507.75. Not that it matters but for my logs should I reread my own post .

 

[green.green]

Let me put this another way.

What is the significance of each of these bars, in succession, "high" to "low", "open" to "close", in context? What is each story?

First bar?

Sorry - this is going to get ugly - I'm going to pretend I was part of the conversation and reply as they come.

The first bar moves opens on it's high and closes on it's low. It is also pushing through the swing L to it's left. The next three bars make downward progress.

The second red bar is the first "uh -oh" bar. It opens on it's high and makes good progress before nearly reversing all the way. The next red bar is the "ahhh" bar. Buyers had only fleeting control and sellers are willing to step up. It opens, rallies above the previous bar before closing lower. Buyers couldn't attract a following.

The forth bar is similar to the 1st - pushing through the previous low with weak close. One bar hesitates and the next bar (red) makes good progress and closes near it's low.

The next red bar (6) is an attempt to rally. Price opens, moves a little lower but doesn't exceed the low of the previous par and then challenges the temporary swing high. It exceeds this high by a bit but can't close above it and falls away. Looking left sellers stepped up here once and it's a bearish indication that they step here again.

Bar 7 & 8 is the next level below the swing low where there is some indication of buying. The first bar wouldn't mean much until the second bar is also rejected at the same level. The next red bar (9) is a small poke that tests the last seing low. Making a little bar sandwich of the two bars on either side of the red one shows a drive up and a complete recovery - sellers are rejecting 3429 ish.

The last two bars form another rejection couplet. 3410 has buying coming in. This rallies but price does not turn back at the last swing high.