Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[dbphoenix]

Based on just your two charts, no way to know.

True, but it's all part of an ongoing drama. By now you all know what the mean of the TC is, where the LL is, where the LSL is.

So given what the two of you (2) have said about these charts, and looking back at what I posted yesterday regarding a suggested entry (third chart), can you think of any reason why you'd want to exit this trade between the short and the turn at the bottom?

 

[trip]

So given what the two of you (2) have said about these charts, and looking back at what I posted yesterday regarding a suggested entry (third chart), can you think of any reason why you'd want to exit this trade between the short and the turn at the bottom?

I don't know if I'm one of the two but my answer is "no, there is no reason to exit other than because of fear or disbelief in the method".

Edit: Thank you for the posts Db and for your replies KP. Made my day.

 

[k p]

True, but it's all part of an ongoing drama. By now you all know what the mean of the TC is, where the LL is, where the LSL is.

So given what the two of you (2) have said about these charts, and looking back at what I posted yesterday regarding a suggested entry (third chart), can you think of any reason why you'd want to exit this trade between the short and the turn at the bottom?

I'm actually stumped here if you're asking a rhetorical question or not. Holding on to get to the bottom of the channel is certainly what makes sense if you see the bounce off the mean, and the weak attempts at a rally. The last horizontal line certainly shows that price doesn't want to go any lower for an extended period of time, so that could be signalling a bottom as well. But I'm not sure if I'm reading your question properly.

 

[dbphoenix]

I'm actually stumped here if you're asking a rhetorical question or not. Holding on to get to the bottom of the channel is certainly what makes sense if you see the bounce off the mean, and the weak attempts at a rally. The last horizontal line certainly shows that price doesn't want to go any lower for an extended period of time, so that could be signalling a bottom as well. But I'm not sure if I'm reading your question properly.

No, I'm not asking a rhetorical question at all. This is what assessing the balance between demand and supply is all about, and there's no reason why it can't be done in real time if you understand what creates that balance.

OTOH, if the trader doesn't know where the mean is, doesn't see the rejection of it, doesn't see the lower high, then it will all be a big mystery and he'll enter and exit 43 times trying to catch some of the move.

Today, of course, was different. But the pulls and pushes and failures to breach and failures to hold and failures to find trades in one direction or the other were identical.

Those of you who have been using DLs and SLs for more than two weeks and still don't know how to read the demand/supply balancing act should stop using them immediately. Not only are they no longer doing you any good, if they ever did, they are actually pulling you backward. If you continue, things will likely only get worse.

In the meantime, I suggest that those who want to continue read the last post in the first journal.

 

[eminiman414]

True, but it's all part of an ongoing drama. By now you all know what the mean of the TC is, where the LL is, where the LSL is.

So given what the two of you (2) have said about these charts, and looking back at what I posted yesterday regarding a suggested entry (third chart), can you think of any reason why you'd want to exit this trade between the short and the turn at the bottom?

I'd say yes in regarding an exit. It is the first time traders are finding trades above a previous swing high and given we have made it to the other extreme.

 

[eminiman414]

sorry misinterpreted the question. Thought you meant after the turn.

 

[k p]

No, I'm not asking a rhetorical question at all. This is what assessing the balance between demand and supply is all about, and there's no reason why it can't be done in real time if you understand what creates that balance.

Thank-you Db. It is difficult to see it real time, but mostly because I am micromanaging and not giving price a bit of room. Perhaps my biggest problem is that I think about what might be problems a few minutes from now, without just seeing what is right now.

Its a shame we didn't have you in chat today as there was so much going on. As you mentioned yesterday, it might not be as easy going forward after the recent drops, and you were absolutely right on that one!

 

[dbphoenix]

Thank-you Db. It is difficult to see it real time, but mostly because I am micromanaging and not giving price a bit of room.

Actually it's easier in real time because you can see price move. If you were to replay yesterday after this exercise, you might see just how easy it is. But if you're futzing around with lines, most if not all of it will just whiz right by.

I suggest that anyone who is interested in this post a chart of this morning's activity, finding those bars and levels which provide information that can be used to make real-time decisions. This is after all a large part of what trade review is all about.

 

[gears]

True, but it's all part of an ongoing drama. By now you all know what the mean of the TC is, where the LL is, where the LSL is.

So given what the two of you (2) have said about these charts, and looking back at what I posted yesterday regarding a suggested entry (third chart), can you think of any reason why you'd want to exit this trade between the short and the turn at the bottom?

No - no need to exit. As price moves down, there are pullbacks, but that is to be expected. Each pullback is further down than each previous pullback.

I do believe the lines are a bit of a hinderance. I've tried before to remove them - I will do so again. This was very helpful to use as a review exercise. Thank you.

 

[eminiman414]

Take bar 3 for example. Obviously it's easy to see now that prices above 60 were rejected. However in general how far do you let price move? Until the ticker rejects a price we do not know what is going to happen. So once the ticker gets to 60 and it doesn't reject then what. How much room do we give it? What if price gets to 70 before a rejection?

Bar 6 for example as well. We have moved up from 30 to 50 and in one bar moved up over 10 points. Seeing what happens next makes it easier to say one thing or the other but in real time how do you let price come back 20 points. Is it the given amount of time in that move up that causes you to say ok we are moving up but not as fast as down at the moment? Are we thinking price rejected up from 50 so now we give price room even if it's 20 points to see if there is any more interest in prices above 50 since the previous rejection in bar 2?