Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[Gringo]

The first thick one might be a level that comes from some other action, but just based on this chart, it is a level that price couldn't cross.

Each successive line shows first a level where enough buyers first stepped in to drive price up, and then a level at which buyers were unwilling to buy and sellers were able to overwhelm them. (dare I say first the lines act as support and then as resistance!)

The lines also divide the areas of consolidation so to speak, areas where not many trades happened as price moved between different levels of consolidation.

I would perhaps state the above with different words, meaning mostly the same thing as stated above. Each value area or where price was supported by buyers coming in is successively lower than the previous one, showing a down trend in price.

This continues until the last horizontal line. It's here that the buyers chase price back up into the previous value area and sellers keep raising their offer price. The first time this previous value area is 'revisited' might be an occasion to perhaps anticipate a shift in the demand and supply dynamic. Maybe, just maybe the buyers are more eager to pay the prices offered by sellers, and sellers sensing this are raising them. Could this continue? Meaning would buyers chase price higher to another value area above the current one?

 

[k p]

I would perhaps state the above with different words, meaning mostly the same thing as stated above. Each value area or where price was supported by buyers coming in is successively lower than the previous one. Price Buyers also are not interested to chase offers to a higher level and back into the previous value area. This continues until the last horizontal line. It's here that the buyers chase prices back up into the previous value area and sellers keep raising their offer price. The first time this previous value area is 'revisited' might be and occasion to perhaps anticipate a shift in demand and supply dynamic. Maybe, just maybe the buyers are more eager to pay the prices offered by sellers and sellers sensing this start raising them.

I find it funny when we talk about, myself included, that buyers are unwilling to pay more, or sellers are letting price come up so they can short at a better price. Ultimately, I don't think we know if price drops because of sellers selling, or buyers not buying. The only thing we can say is that at this price level, there was not a buyer and seller who agreed on price. The only buyer was one tick lower, not at that tick, and not one tick higher. That is what makes price goes down. Not sure if this is an important distinction or not, but I find I'm catching myself when I start to get too descriptive of what is happening since I'm probably just talking garbage.

 

[Gringo]

I find it funny when we talk about, myself included, that buyers are unwilling to pay more, or sellers are letting price come up so they can short at a better price. Ultimately, I don't think we know if price drops because of sellers selling, or buyers not buying. The only thing we can say is that at this price level, there was not a buyer and seller who agreed on price. The only buyer was one tick lower, not at that tick, and not one tick higher. That is what makes price goes down. Not sure if this is an important distinction or not, but I find I'm catching myself when I start to get too descriptive of what is happening since I'm probably just talking garbage.

You're right. Without volume we have less of an idea about the intensity of the transactions. All we can decipher is the side that's advancing and the side that's backing off.

 

[dbphoenix]

Okay, now, using both charts, and using the red bars as characters, tell me the story of this move from the "thick line" -- which is the mean of the TC -- all the way down to the bottom.

 

[eminiman414]

Before we get too far into hindsight, note that the second time price tries to get through 3490, it fails. This creates a DT. One can short the next bar. But that trade rejects the downside as soon as it triggers. Not good. The other option is the upside, so one goes long in the next bar. This carries for a few points but traders reject 98. Why? Who knows? Who cares? The trader allows price to come back. Which it does. To 91. But then there's no upside continuation. Instead price continues to fall. This is reason for a scratch and even a short. But then traders reject 86 and you're back in a range. And you stay there for the next 4m.

Then price finally falls out of this -- what is the significance of this breach? -- with a ret at 1004. This provides a shorting op. Does price come back at you? Yes. A whole point. Then it resumes its downtrend. How long will this last? Who can say? But if you're more concerned about where you entered and how much money you're making/losing than you are about what traders are doing and where and why, then you're focusing in the wrong direction.

I've attached my chart which is in reference to what's highlighted in red. So taking that short is correct? Is the exit correct or is holding on a better choice in this situation? Given the bounce I was out. In terms of re-entering my brain was looking long.

As per what is highlighted in green are we back in a range bc of 72 and 98 being rejected giving us two extremes?

After my exit since 92 is rejected does that say ok no long, re-enter short? (if that type of action repeats itself in the future).

Since I did exit would the re-entry be set as a "regular" entry as in 1 point away from 87.25?

What would cause you not to short 90 and wait for the next entry at 86.25? How did you know to not enter 90 and wait for that one entry? Taking 90 and having such a rejection of 86 caused me to look long vs. re-entering short? What really should I be thinking? Mean rejected than 92/50% of the move from 98 to 86 rejected? Given the SLA rules looking long I suppose I got lost and I guess the problem is looking long and not looking at price?

How do I obtain your skills lol????

ps magenta symbol entry, blue symbol exit

 

[k p]

Okay, now, using both charts, and using the red bars as characters, tell me the story of this move from the "thick line" -- which is the mean of the TC -- all the way down to the bottom.

The story is a sad tale of hope and rejection!

Before the first character (bar) shows up, we have a rejection of the mean. The first red bar drops decisively below the previous swing low. The second red bar finds hope in the form of a rejection of price, followed by a small rally, which ends in another rejection on the third red bar.

The fourth red bar is decisive in that it break the low of the previous red bar.

Firth bar continues the drop, but the 6th comes up to test the levels of the previous bars, to see if there are any buyers there. When none are found, we drop some more, and bars 7 and 8 provide a halt to the drop. We once again see that bar 9 tries to test for buyers at the previous halt of price at bar 5, but none are found.

Bars 10 and 11 provide a turnaround, a rejection of price below this, a value for buyers.

The horizontal bars show the levels that provide hope for our characters, an area where price tries to reverse the move down but can't hold.

 

[dbphoenix]

How do I obtain your skills lol????

Start here.

 

[dbphoenix]

Bars 10 and 11 provide a turnaround, a rejection of price below this, a value for buyers.

Why at this particular level?

 

[trip]

Why at this particular level?

It's the bottom channel line.

Edit:

 

[k p]

Why at this particular level?

Based on just your two charts, no way to know.

When you look at the daily, we see 3414 as a level that halted a price drop in December and February. Looking at the hourly, this level is also close to the lower level of our newer and steeper channel. It isn't quite perfect, but we are getting into oversold territory at these low values.