Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[dbphoenix]

So, the fact that traders managed to push prices outside of the TC is a sign of strength and the confirmation of that strength is the inability of sellers to take prices to the bottom of the TC?

At the time it showed strength, but that doesn't mean that one should not have taken the reversal when price rolled over, if he was trading at the time. Not trading simply because one anticipates a trend change to the upside is pretty silly. Let's see what happens here if price doesn't go anywhere before the NY open.

 

[niko]

Here is the update in today's, short not too promising, but still holding.

 

[Gringo]

I thought this short was nullified when NQ hourly gave a buy signal in the morning. I think I had brought this up in chat. I believe it's your TL that's causing you to stay in, when a tighter SL would have told you trend was changing and there was a retracement. I have only had a quick look at it but perhaps redrawing would clarify things a bit more.

Notice the break in SL and then there's a Ret.

Gringo

 

[guido]

this thread is really what it is all about trading .Nothing less nothing more.My compliment!
However in my experience I would not use time charts to draw the various lines SL or DL .I find that the price is distorted especially when in a certain period of time there no activity.. or am I wrong?

thanks

have a nice weekend

 

[Money Trust]

Damn, this is why I love the Wyckoff method. It's the only method I've ever seen that allows one to see what's most likely about to occur before it actually does...unlike typical technical analysis a.k.a pattern-watching.

 

[niko]

I thought this short was nullified when NQ hourly gave a buy signal in the morning. I think I had brought this up in chat. I believe it's your TL that's causing you to stay in, when a tighter SL would have told you trend was changing and there was a retracement. I have only had a quick look at it but perhaps redrawing would clarify things a bit more.

Notice the break in SL and then there's a Ret.

Gringo

Given the fact that the short was in the money, I was looking for reasons to stay. Currently in my learning curve, the break of the line is not a reason to exit, at least not the whole thing. I have turned into a 50% kind of trader .

Nonetheless, the long was a hell of a good call. But wait, now is hindsight, so perhaps.....

 

[niko]

Not necessarily. It appears that traders tried to break through the very-short-term trend channel that roffe pointed out, looking for new value and failing, falling back into the VST TC. However, this is how trend change takes place in real time. If we make a higher low, we then have a trendline. If we copy a parallel line to yesterday's high, we can project a potential new trend channel. Otherwise, we test the low again and start over.

We've come close to testing the mean of that VST TC at or about 3478. If we were to turn here, I'd vote for a VST trend change upward to the mean of the longer-term TC, posted a day or so ago, at 3570 or thereabouts.

Now, I have to admit that I did not pay the due attention to the fact that Db mentioned earlier that the mean of the VST TC was being tested and therefore the short was at more risk than I initially assumed.

Db is this the channel you were talking about?, don't we need a break above yesterday. Or is it that I am already seeing bunnies in the clouds?

 

[niko]

this thread is really what it is all about trading .Nothing less nothing more.My compliment!
However in my experience I would not use time charts to draw the various lines SL or DL .I find that the price is distorted especially when in a certain period of time there no activity.. or am I wrong?

thanks

have a nice weekend

Interesting Guido, perhaps you could share your experience with the rest of the thread followers. There are hundreds of ways to skin a cat and yours could be a interesting one.

Or not, your call .

 

[dbphoenix]

Where we are:

 

[dbphoenix]

Now, I have to admit that I did not pay the due attention to the fact that Db mentioned earlier that the mean of the VST TC was being tested and therefore the short was at more risk than I initially assumed.

Db is this the channel you were talking about?, don't we need a break above yesterday. Or is it that I am already seeing bunnies in the clouds?

Some things have been shifted to chat since the people there are at least somewhat likely to be interested, whereas only a couple of people are interested in this thread, and due to the latter I'm not motivated to repeat it all here.

In any case, the "hourly signal" was given on the 29th and had nothing to do with your trade unless you were trading the hourly. If the market were "fractal" it might, but since it isn't, it doesn't.

Be that as it may, yes, you do have to make a higher high to confirm a trend change. Otherwise you end up with sideways chop.