Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[niko]

Ok,

So far there have been 1 or 2 opps to enter. 1 if one is comfortable taking heat, and 2 if one is into scratching and reentering.

But at the moment of the post, seems like we are stuck around R at 90, If it holds I will call the second entry a scratch as well, and will look a this as a congestion with a rising bottom (Ascending triangle they call it )

 

[Roffe]

But what matters more is the barrier presented for some reason by 90. And given the level of activity, or lack of it, it's unlikely to be breached decisively.

90ish seems to be the mean of the downward sloping channel with both highs and lows from the 27th and 29th, if that matters...

 

[dbphoenix]

90ish seems to be the mean of the downward sloping channel with both highs and lows from the 27th and 29th, if that matters...

You're right. Good one. And it may matter a great deal. Getting into microtrends and microchannels can be a trap, but this may be more substantial than that.

Won't have to wait long to find out.

 

[niko]

Db,

Tracing the daily channel, the initial version. I seem to be doing something wrong because my bottom is way below 50.

 

[dbphoenix]

Db,

Tracing the daily channel, the initial version. I seem to be doing something wrong because my bottom is way below 50.

View attachment 142638

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showpost.php?p=3934902&postcount=881

 

[dbphoenix]

So price breaks thru and there's a ret at 0843. Let's see if buyers can hold on to their advance.

 

[niko]

So far, so good.

 

[niko]

Interesting turn of events. Buyers finally gave up around 35 which given the whole movement from 633 still shows weakness in the market. I was not there but the entry was, DL break + failure to make a HH. Short at 3522, that short is still valid and price is still falling.

Lets see what happens today We are approaching the congestion between 90 and 70 with an MP in 80.

 

[dbphoenix]

Interesting turn of events. Buyers finally gave up around 35 which given the whole movement from 633 still shows weakness in the market.

Not necessarily. It appears that traders tried to break through the very-short-term trend channel that roffe pointed out, looking for new value and failing, falling back into the VST TC. However, this is how trend change takes place in real time. If we make a higher low, we then have a trendline. If we copy a parallel line to yesterday's high, we can project a potential new trend channel. Otherwise, we test the low again and start over.

We've come close to testing the mean of that VST TC at or about 3478. If we were to turn here, I'd vote for a VST trend change upward to the mean of the longer-term TC, posted a day or so ago, at 3570 or thereabouts.

 

[niko]

Not necessarily. It appears that traders tried to break through the very-short-term trend channel that roffe pointed out, looking for new value and failing, falling back into the VST TC. However, this is how trend change takes place in real time. If we make a higher low, we then have a trendline. If we copy a parallel line to yesterday's high, we can project a potential new trend channel. Otherwise, we test the low again and start over.

We've come close to testing the mean of that VST TC at or about 3478. If we were to turn here, I'd vote for a VST trend change upward to the mean of the longer-term TC, posted a day or so ago, at 3570 or thereabouts.

So, the fact that traders managed to push prices outside of the TC is a sign of strength and the confirmation of that strength is the inability of sellers to take prices to the bottom of the TC?