Get The Hell Out: Part II

Quote from HolyGrail:

I know it will. I've only been trading since 1997 but I'm not an idiot. I don't base my decisions on potential catastrophic events. It's just not a way I want to live my life. I manage risk very well, so there isn't anything economically that is going to have a major effect on my life unless the world ends as we know it.
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Grail,

I'm sorry if I came off harsh, this is a touchy subject for me because unfortunately I have seen way too many people lose fortunes, their life savings, marriages and more importantly their lives from over confidence or ignorance about this business.

I think your a pretty cool guy and I respect your efforts on the P & F thread that's good work.

I hope you understand that for probably thousands and thousands of hours I've studied not only P & F but virtually EVERY type of trading imaginable (It's part of the job) so I've seen the good the bad and the ugly of it all.

My whole point is - trading with confidence is great and necessary BUT always never lose site of the fact, that we are all just one trade away from being out of business.

If it can happen to the best in history it can happen and will happen to the best of the best now.

Best of trades to you!
 
Quote from Joab:

Grail,

I'm sorry if I came off harsh, this is a touchy subject for me because unfortunately I have seen way too many people lose fortunes, their life savings, marriages and more importantly their lives from over confidence or ignorance about this business.

I think your a pretty cool guy and I respect your efforts on the P & F thread that's good work.

I hope you understand that for probably hundreds and hundreds of hours I've studied not only P & F but virtually EVERY type of trading imaginable (It's part of the job) so I've seen the good the bad and the ugly of it all.

My whole point is - trading with confidence is great and necessary BUT always never lose site of the fact, that we are all just one trade away from being out of business.

If it can happen to the best in history it can happen and will happen to the best of the best now.

Best of trades to you!
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I know you have been trading a long time, and I have always respected your opinion. I was just answering a question as to why I am not going to get the hell out of the market. Believe me, I have not been long from the top until now. I do go long and short with my swing trading, and obviously when I day trade I am not biased in any direction.

I'm 58 years old. I've seen a lot of things in my life. Yes I was around in 1987 when the market crashed. I remember it well. I wasn't trading it, but I did see its effects. Events like that are unavoidable. I'm not one of those guys that just keep saying 100% up room to go blindly, but I am following a system that is working. I'm going to ride that pony as long as I can whether up or down.

Good trading to you!!
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

I know you have been trading a long time, and I have always respected your opinion. I was just answering a question as to why I am not going to get the hell out of the market. Believe me, I have not been long from the top until now. I do go long and short with my swing trading, and obviously when I day trade I am not biased in any direction.

I'm 58 years old. I've seen a lot of things in my life. Yes I was around in 1987 when the market crashed. I remember it well. I wasn't trading it, but I did see its effects. Events like that are unavoidable. I'm not one of those guys that just keep saying 100% up room to go blindly, but I am following a system that is working. I'm going to ride that pony as long as I can whether up or down.

Good trading to you!!
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Off the subject, but wow, an age! I only started posting online recently and it's weird not knowing anything about anyone. (I'm a 47-yr-old vegan soccer-playing musician, cancer survivor & FT trader but surely you knew that)

I've only been trading a bit over 3 months, mostly long with a few intraday/2-day shorts based on technicals. Shorts are starting to look good after days like last week. My watch lists turned red and dropped 2-4% in a very "short" time. The market's still so choppy, I'm a bit hesitant to jump in. GRMN jumped and fell $2+/share in about 82.3 seconds Fri after announcing their share repurchase. What's your experience w short intradays?
 
Quote from NoDoji:

What's your experience w short intradays?
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I only trade ES, NQ, or YM intraday so I really can't comment. There are plenty that do trade stocks intraday on the board that I am sure can help you.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

I know you have been trading a long time, and I have always respected your opinion. I was just answering a question as to why I am not going to get the hell out of the market. Believe me, I have not been long from the top until now. I do go long and short with my swing trading, and obviously when I day trade I am not biased in any direction.

I'm 58 years old. I've seen a lot of things in my life. Yes I was around in 1987 when the market crashed. I remember it well. I wasn't trading it, but I did see its effects. Events like that are unavoidable. I'm not one of those guys that just keep saying 100% up room to go blindly, but I am following a system that is working. I'm going to ride that pony as long as I can whether up or down.

Good trading to you!!
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I always listen when veteran traders talk about the markets of 2001 and 2002, when every time the market rallied, anyone biting the bait would soon be stomped hard, day after day after day - an endless cycle, as they seemed to suggest.

I've never experienced that.

That's my worst fear. A return to an environment where nothing stabilizes, there is no base, and unless you're just 'out,' with no chips on the table to lose, one is ground into dust.
 
In stocks world, there are no rainy days, credit problems, housing worries, everyone who wans a job, has a great one, and stocks only go higher....therefore, to him, this is a stupid thread
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I always listen when veteran traders talk about the markets of 2001 and 2002, when every time the market rallied, anyone biting the bait would soon be stomped hard, day after day after day - an endless cycle, as they seemed to suggest.

I've never experienced that.

That's my worst fear. A return to an environment where nothing stabilizes, there is no base, and unless you're just 'out,' with no chips on the table to lose, one is ground into dust.
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Having an option writing strategy on an index as a complement to your other strategies, for example, a call credit spread, or legging in and out of an iron condor on the swings can be helpful in the scenario you painted.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121295844546455357.html
 
The OP is making very good points.

I rarely post in the ES thread but i did on friday when the ES dropped below 370.

If you get a chance look at the C span senate hearings on the commod commissioners. What you will find out is that the senators cannot even ask Q's and the commissioners are dumbed down totally and they have no staffing or budget.

The sovereign money section and the "new capital going into oil" section were the most revealing.

Most of the federal hearings designed to shore up regulation or overcite are all haywire by now.

What is in the air now hasn't happened for over 50 years.
I was born in the Hoover admin and lived knowledgeably through the crawl out from the Great Depression.

This is not the time for anyone to go on bullshitting himself that he knows how to trade any market.

The electronics of trading the markets came of age before '87 and at that time all smart money was able to handle the leading indicators if it wasn't BS'ing itself. There were some very lucky people, too. It took a lot to run an excellent C&C from the ridges and it was clearly possible to call the shots within a day of the critical moments. Some market tests hit the marks as many as four times on the way into and out of the trauma.

Don't bullshit yourself if you haven't got what it takes at these times. Don't be a Babak or mark brown etc....

NB: Go back and read the run up from people explaining it to Nitro when he was on his way to blowing out in December.
 
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