It's a good point. Even wars, there's always some warning. I guess the closet thing in recent history that we can say was truly a black swan event was 9-11.
Honestly, I don't know what China moving on Taiwan will do to our markets, but I have a few theories.
One is, and if any of you guys read the other threads here, you'll see I called a perfect bottom on INTC. To the day. Actually, to the hour. (And please, I'm not bragging about that, call it luck) But know why I wrote that post the day I did(?)... because the day before Xi changed his tune in one of his speeches to his "people" and in that speech, he said something to the effect of 'prepare for war'.
Now I know as much about the subtleties of Chinese linguistics as I do.... whatever... French poetry from the 1600's.... but 'prepare for war' seems pretty cut and dry to me.
Aside from the fact that the far dated option activity (the 2025 calls) on INTC spiked huge that day, which with the luxury of hindsight did indeed confirm the bottom as it oftentimes does, there's a bigger picture here that hasn't really been addressed in the main stream financial press. But the whales know it. Of course.
What is the biggest thing going right now? What are we on the cusp of? Something as world changing as the industrial revolution, or the internet itself? AI. Simple as that. And what company's products are powering this revolution? ---Nvidea. The stock reflects that too. Obviously.
But what a lot of folks don't realize is this... Nvidea doesn't fab its top of the line, cutting edge chips. Know who builds them? Taiwan Semi.
Read that again. Taiwan Semi.
This is why the $20B plus new INTC fab plant in Ohio is so important. INTC will eventually be building Nvidea's chips. And that's why INTC is going up.
If China takes Taiwan... we're f'd... near term. Yes Nvidea's IP is U.S. based for the most part, but making those chips, that's a whole different story. You just don't throw together a fabrication facility for these types of chips like you would a Tesla assembly plant. There's very few places in the world that can currently make the chips that are powering the next mega-change in human existence. And they are in Taiwan. All the intellectual property in the world isn't worth a nickle if you can't build your product. China to the U.S.---> "checkmate".
And that my friends is why INTC is climbing.
So... I suppose a war in Taiwan wouldn't be a black swan per-se, but it sure will upset the game board temporarily, and in that, you'll see a decent drop in the markets. You guys here are all traders, so it won't matter unless you get burned overnight on a big position, but for your retirement accounts, I'd get in cash and then buy the dip. The BIG dip. IE, a 30% plus dip.
Just my opinion. Nothing more.