There are several dangers next week. Pitfalls, traps but which way-?
Going way back to my original thesis on everything-- The Master Plan...
The thought was Inflation comes down rapidly and the market celebrates!
Even though earn estimates are coming down... the market celebrates that inflation.
So focused. My argument, the market will not be able to control itself.
With that understood we have to be aware of how the market will react to a slight bump UP
in inflation!/
In my mind right around the 4% mark (2X the target) we were going to have a ratchet up and that was going to freak everyone out.
Now that Jobs report... I don't know where that strength came from but it coincides with a pick up in the home builders. For that reason we have to be open to the possibility that a bump up or a ceasing of the decline may happen right now at 6% which would be super scary.
I am playing it both ways.. being careful but also 100% invested.
Always in my mind is that 4,400 number where the Fed stops being Ok with the market's advance...
My bet now is that we do race up to that 4,400, that this reporting cycle we do get further declines in the inflation number // a break above 4,200 will get us there.. the computer action alone.
The next time this all rolls around that April-June period I don't feel good about.-~si
Going way back to my original thesis on everything-- The Master Plan...
The thought was Inflation comes down rapidly and the market celebrates!
Even though earn estimates are coming down... the market celebrates that inflation.
So focused. My argument, the market will not be able to control itself.
With that understood we have to be aware of how the market will react to a slight bump UP
in inflation!/
In my mind right around the 4% mark (2X the target) we were going to have a ratchet up and that was going to freak everyone out.
Now that Jobs report... I don't know where that strength came from but it coincides with a pick up in the home builders. For that reason we have to be open to the possibility that a bump up or a ceasing of the decline may happen right now at 6% which would be super scary.
I am playing it both ways.. being careful but also 100% invested.
Always in my mind is that 4,400 number where the Fed stops being Ok with the market's advance...
My bet now is that we do race up to that 4,400, that this reporting cycle we do get further declines in the inflation number // a break above 4,200 will get us there.. the computer action alone.
The next time this all rolls around that April-June period I don't feel good about.-~si
.