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There’s a strong possibility that the bear market in stocks is over as investors have given up hope
ae0afc9bfb1407b1ba0a99e0c87fd28b

There’s a strong possibility that the bear market in stocks is over as investors have given up hope

Marketwatch used to be free. It ticks me off that yahoo lists this as news and then they freeze your screen and asks for money. Bastards! Does anyone have access to this article? By Mark Hulburt who I used to ping off in the old days////
 
stonedinvestor said:

There’s a strong possibility that the bear market in stocks is over as investors have given up hope
ae0afc9bfb1407b1ba0a99e0c87fd28b

There’s a strong possibility that the bear market in stocks is over as investors have given up hope

Marketwatch used to be free. It ticks me off that yahoo lists this as news and then they freeze your screen and asks for money. Bastards! Does anyone have access to this article? By Mark Hulburt who I used to ping off in the old days////
More...
There’s a strong possibility that the bear market in stocks is over as investors have given up hope


MARKETWATCH PREMIUM




A contrarian case can be made that the stock market rally since the October lows is the beginning of a new bull market.

That’s because the criteria for “capitulation” that I laid out in previous columns have been met.

Capitulation occurs when investors give up because of despair, the last emotional stage of bear market grief. Without it, the odds are considerable that any rally is but a blip. When I last devoted a column to a contrarian analysis of stock market sentiment two months ago, capitulation had not yet occurred.

That has changed.

To review, the capitulation indicator keys off the two sentiment indices my firm calculates. The first reflects the average recommended equity exposure level among short-term timers who focus on the broad market, as represented by benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average The second covers the Nasdaq market (The indices are the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index and the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index.)

The capitulation indicator is based on the percentage of trading days over the trailing month in which each of these two indices is in the bottom decile of its historical distribution since 2000. At many major market bottoms of the past, this indicator rose to above 80%. In the last half of October the indicator rose to 90.5%.

No rush to jump on the bullish bandwagon

Another encouraging sign, from a contrarian point of view, is the restraint that market timers have shown in the face of the DJIA’s greater-than-20% rally since its low two months ago. One of the telltale contrarian signs of a bear market rally is an eagerness to jump on the bullish bandwagon. The prevailing sentiment at the beginning of a new bull market, in contrast, is stubbornly held skepticism.

There is considerable evidence of this stubbornness. Consider the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI). In the face of the DJIA’s rally of more than 20%, the HSNSI has risen only modestly. It currently stands at the 35th percentile of its historical distribution, as you can see from the chart at the bottom of this column. That means that 65% of the daily HSNSI readings over the past two decades were higher than where it stands today.

We would normally expect a 20%-plus rally to cause many more market timers to turn bullish. It’s remarkable that they haven’t. To provide context, consider market timer sentiment in the gold arena in the wake of gold’s nearly $200 jump over the past month. Though in percentage terms gold’s rally is barely half the DJIA’s, the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index has risen to one of its highest levels in years. As you can see from the chart below, it currently stands at the 94th percentile of its two-decade distribution.

According to contrarian analysis, therefore, stocks more than gold are likely to be entering into a new bull market.
 
THANKS SO MUCH VAN. This guy used to have an old fashioned newsletter like me. I would hand mine out for $10. Mark did a lot better-

I really doubt that ticket price Van! I would think the game is sold out.
 
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Really a ballsy take by Mark.

I've been wanting to go here for contrary reasons. Whats the one thing nobody is saying? That the June bottom (Stoney curve) was the low after all.

You just don't hear that from anyone.

The problem is on my heart I don't believe that can be the case. Why? All this impending doom. China new outbreak of Covid sure to come as their bad vax wanes quick... The war, the damn war... price of oil. Europe in the dumps. England recession for sure... these currency headwinds to earn--> Brutal... Job firings // econ slow down '' high inflation // urban decays.... crime...

But that countered by all of this Covid- special situations-- is that the inflation?

Double ordering because of the shipping situation there's just so much to take into consideraton.

The DOW is now in a new Bull Market. (Up 20%)
 
You have to think the Fri report coming up will thrust us over the declining trend line.

For now that's all that matters--WE MUST DO THIS TRUST ME!!! Even if we turn right around as long as we spend a week nicely above the 200 day the computers will talk to themselves and the next mild correction will be BOUGHT HEAVILY.
 
stonedinvestor said:
You have to think the Fri report coming up will thrust us over the declining trend line.

For now that's all that matters--WE MUST DO THIS TRUST ME!!! Even if we turn right around as long as we spend a week nicely above the 200 day the computers will talk to themselves and the next mild correction will be BOUGHT HEAVILY.
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Oh Stoney...

"The "S&P needs to stay above the 200 day for a bit" has been in the news and heralded by every swinging d*ck "expert" with a keyboard and 1/2 an audience for the last week.

I only point this out so the readers don't have to puke next week reading how great you are if in fact it does stay above the 200 and then jumps towards VZ's year end call of 4474.... made in July
(already legendary according to Google search ---> VZ top search on WSB's ---> https://wsbdaily.com/ ---> You're welcome Stoney)


stonedinvestor said:
I really doubt that ticket price Van! I would think the game is sold out.
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No it's the real price Stoney. You should check now... they have decent seats available at $31.
They must be selling hotdogs and beer for $100/pop.

Speaking of... how's my new favorite Cramer stock doing?

vanzandt said:
What's your thoughts on Portillo's btw?
Do they have those in NY yet?

PTLO>>> $19.74

Portillo's Inc. owns and operates fast casual and quick service restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut French fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and milkshakes. As of June 26, 2022, it owned and operated 71 Portillo's restaurants across nine states. The company also offers its products through its website. Portillo's Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.
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$20.25 now! :wtf:
>>>I'm a savant Stoney!
"Up markets, down markets... no one has ever delivered to ET readers like VZ." :rolleyes::rolleyes:

For real though, let this one tank.... and it'll be a good stock to buy.
Way overpriced atm however.
Good management, good product, proven track record, the model seems to work.... the only thing not to like is the stock price.

Portillo’s opening Chicago-style hot dog restaurant in North Texas


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article


DALLAS - A popular Chicago-based hot dog chain is expected to make its debut in Texas next year with a restaurant in the Dallas area.

According to Forbes, Portillo’s currently has locations in nine states with plans to expand into Texas, Florida and Arizona in 2022.


Those plans will start with a flagship restaurant in the Dallas market because of its growing population.

"Texas is the number one state we ship to," Portillo’s CEO Michael Osanloo also told Forbes, noting that it’s the state people like to go to when they get tired of Chicago’s winters.


Portillo’s was founded in 1963 as a hot dog stand in Villa Park, Illinois.

In addition to the Chicago-style hot dogs, the fast-food restaurant now also serves Italian beef and sausage sandwiches, burgers, chopped salads, cheese fries, chocolate cake and shakes.
 
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