Incredible call! You have a crystal ball?
GBA Presents: RADIO SAVANT-!
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
Van unclear what you are talking about. Sept 15th is along time away.
The next two weeks will be harrowing. I think we have another PPI # soon
or some read on inflation.
What I'm afraid of is a freak print. There was a momentary move down in bond yields during this period and a spike in home sales. Maybe car sales went up too. I think overall inflation is bending the curve but we may get this fake out.
The fake out itself will rattle the market but the real damage will be this time realization- how long high rates will be with us. How long inflation will be with us.
In my view we were given a chance this last rally to show ourselves right by the fed... but we acted like spoiled children nipping at the tat of tech.. same stupid stocks. Will they ever wake up?
Look at the PE of the market. You aint going anywhere with earnings reductions about to hit us like a wave.
We are in a bad place. And we must in the future go with different names... utilities perhaps, healthcare, green energy /// I don't know what.
The next two weeks will be harrowing. I think we have another PPI # soon
or some read on inflation.
What I'm afraid of is a freak print. There was a momentary move down in bond yields during this period and a spike in home sales. Maybe car sales went up too. I think overall inflation is bending the curve but we may get this fake out.
The fake out itself will rattle the market but the real damage will be this time realization- how long high rates will be with us. How long inflation will be with us.
In my view we were given a chance this last rally to show ourselves right by the fed... but we acted like spoiled children nipping at the tat of tech.. same stupid stocks. Will they ever wake up?
Look at the PE of the market. You aint going anywhere with earnings reductions about to hit us like a wave.
We are in a bad place. And we must in the future go with different names... utilities perhaps, healthcare, green energy /// I don't know what.
Well, 3 weeks, with a PPI and CPI in between.
Unclear? ....
When the QQQ was at $330-$334 I said we'd get an 8.5% pullback before we head higher--- to close 2022 with an S&P at or near 4600
The start date will be right around 9/15... +/- a few days.
Here, this is on another thread, I was telling an idiot what's up, but you can see what I'm referring to as I even put two posts from this thread in the picture for the idiot.
Nothing to do with you lol.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...january-2022-over.368888/page-54#post-5661619
Why Sep 15th? That's just some plain ol' retail data. Do you mean Sep 21st, the FOMC day or Sep 13th, the CPI print?
re:
Unclear? ....
When the QQQ was at $330-$334 I said we'd get an 8.5% pullback before we head higher--- to close 2022 with an S&P at or near 4600
You should not be making predictions! We have been through this. When the S&P crested I'm the one who got us out. You called for another 1,000 S&P points up. What you got was the exact opposite.
How can you be so wrong every time?
Unclear? ....
When the QQQ was at $330-$334 I said we'd get an 8.5% pullback before we head higher--- to close 2022 with an S&P at or near 4600
You should not be making predictions! We have been through this. When the S&P crested I'm the one who got us out. You called for another 1,000 S&P points up. What you got was the exact opposite.
How can you be so wrong every time?
With a perfect record obviously the readers come to me for all of the econ work. As they should.
We have to ask ourselves what happened Fri? Why the 1,000 point sell off? Was it a market ripe for plunder with low vol in Aug? Is there something deeper.
What did people take out of the Fed speech? Well some that I have talked to feel the soft landing was taken away. And indeed past speeches talked about soft landings this one ignored the subject and even worse Powell said the " pain " word.
When I heard the pain word I thought typical Fed scare to get the markets to take a breather... but when combined with the lack of any verbiage about the possibilities of a soft landing- that spooked the market.
This combined with the bailing of the quick up quick down crew... (I myself was in this camp)
a large amount of professional investors thought we were raising rates quickly in order that we could lower them quickly next year-- thus avoiding a hard landing.
Now the thought is high interest rates for a long time the way they were low for an abnormally long time.
Probably the biggest problem is the computers.>
The evil quants. There has been a huge behind the scenes battle between the Hedgies & the Quants. And indeed give the Hedgies credit they had turned about half of the machines around, half of the Quant world was seeing the possibilities of further upside... that's gone now.
We have to ask ourselves what happened Fri? Why the 1,000 point sell off? Was it a market ripe for plunder with low vol in Aug? Is there something deeper.
What did people take out of the Fed speech? Well some that I have talked to feel the soft landing was taken away. And indeed past speeches talked about soft landings this one ignored the subject and even worse Powell said the " pain " word.
When I heard the pain word I thought typical Fed scare to get the markets to take a breather... but when combined with the lack of any verbiage about the possibilities of a soft landing- that spooked the market.
This combined with the bailing of the quick up quick down crew... (I myself was in this camp)
a large amount of professional investors thought we were raising rates quickly in order that we could lower them quickly next year-- thus avoiding a hard landing.
Now the thought is high interest rates for a long time the way they were low for an abnormally long time.
Probably the biggest problem is the computers.>
The evil quants. There has been a huge behind the scenes battle between the Hedgies & the Quants. And indeed give the Hedgies credit they had turned about half of the machines around, half of the Quant world was seeing the possibilities of further upside... that's gone now.
The Fed then will get a look at a inflation number coming up before they act.
I fear some special situations this time around that may make that inflation number hot.
We have to ask ourselves-- how will the stock market take an inflation rate that is steady or slightly ticked up?
The stock market will panic.
Ironically this set up lends itself to what will be a surprise 50 BP move not 75. As The Fed moves from crashing the market to saving it.
That's my thought process right now. Hold your cash we have raised. Even if the market bounces Monday wait for that next Inflation report and if it's bad and the market is upset consider going long right at the Fed meeting.
Long what? I have no idea-!
I fear some special situations this time around that may make that inflation number hot.
We have to ask ourselves-- how will the stock market take an inflation rate that is steady or slightly ticked up?
The stock market will panic.
Ironically this set up lends itself to what will be a surprise 50 BP move not 75. As The Fed moves from crashing the market to saving it.
That's my thought process right now. Hold your cash we have raised. Even if the market bounces Monday wait for that next Inflation report and if it's bad and the market is upset consider going long right at the Fed meeting.
Long what? I have no idea-!
Remember the trading range GBA was first to point out.
S&P 3,800--------- S&P 4,200
That lower end 3,600- 3,800 that = Mild recession. And currently according to the Fed that is where we are heading (on purpose) There is little to be gained from fighting the Fed on this one.
That higher end 4,200 and up that's a world in which inflation steadily comes down.
S&P 3,800--------- S&P 4,200
That lower end 3,600- 3,800 that = Mild recession. And currently according to the Fed that is where we are heading (on purpose) There is little to be gained from fighting the Fed on this one.
That higher end 4,200 and up that's a world in which inflation steadily comes down.
Most of the talking heads on TV and in the Hedge fund world are saying the same thing-- big end of year rally!
I don't know if they really mean it. You cannot go off historical mid term-election logic which is what I usually get back wen I challenge a forecaster-- It's different this time. The inflation, the Covid etc.
Certainly this is a most dangerous time.
I don't know if they really mean it. You cannot go off historical mid term-election logic which is what I usually get back wen I challenge a forecaster-- It's different this time. The inflation, the Covid etc.
Certainly this is a most dangerous time.
One interesting angle is the unemployment.
Layoffs are happening we know that but we also have this great retirement set up and people refusing to work and it still being very hard to find workers.
So What if all of these folks being laid off find new jobs? The same jobs that have been unable to be filled...
The Fed is thinking the jobless rate the unemployed must be spiked to slow the economy and inflation But what if a good amount of that infalaion is actually caused by lack of a functioning work force. Say you have two lobster shacks in town and one cannot find employees and closes then the other one's prices go up.. Only game in town. Competition keeps prices in check.
So could an unusually stubbornly strong workforce actually serve to curb inflation not spike it.?
The Fed is not thinking that way....
It's a very interesting theory and I give credit to Joe Terranova who kind of free balled the concept out one day last week.
Layoffs are happening we know that but we also have this great retirement set up and people refusing to work and it still being very hard to find workers.
So What if all of these folks being laid off find new jobs? The same jobs that have been unable to be filled...
The Fed is thinking the jobless rate the unemployed must be spiked to slow the economy and inflation But what if a good amount of that infalaion is actually caused by lack of a functioning work force. Say you have two lobster shacks in town and one cannot find employees and closes then the other one's prices go up.. Only game in town. Competition keeps prices in check.
So could an unusually stubbornly strong workforce actually serve to curb inflation not spike it.?
The Fed is not thinking that way....
It's a very interesting theory and I give credit to Joe Terranova who kind of free balled the concept out one day last week.