GBA Presents: RADIO SAVANT-!

vanzandt said:
Someone just sold 12,750 contracts of the Sept $130 puts for $4.30
They bought 9600 of the the $135's for $5.80

Hmmm. $1.44M bet to make $3.4M if it drops below $130. It has to drop to $133.50 just to breakeven.
That wasn't you was it Ted?
...whales :rolleyes:

Edit: SNOW
More...
This guy has more exposure though.
This is not a run of the mill bear put spread.
The downside is unlimited (well $130/contract at least). He's got 3100 contracts on the short side that could keep dropping.
If it goes to $100, this cat is out $9.3M (minus his $3.4M)
I wonder if he/she realizes this.
You'd think they would, but I've read there's ultra-rich newbies out there that are playing the option game and they have no idea what they're doing. This is a lousy trade imo.
I mean if this thing drops to his target area, odds are it won't stop there. That's a big drop.
Unless our whale has inside info where he's pegging this thing at $130-$133.50 >>> it's a terrible trade. Technically he's good down to about $120ish I guess, but still.
Hmph.
 
BIG INSIDER BUY ALERT:

Nextdoor Holdings
KIND ($3.21)
765K shares for $2.5M
Total owned: 824K

*** I wanna say there were more insider buys on this thing last week too.

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. operates as the neighborhood network that connects neighbors, businesses, and public services in the United States and internationally. It enables small and mid-sized businesses, large brands, public agencies, and nonprofits to receive information, give and get help, and build connections. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
 
vanzandt said:
Someone just sold 12,750 contracts of the Sept $130 puts for $4.30
They bought 9600 of the the $135's for $5.80

Hmmm. $1.44M bet to make $3.4M if it drops below $130. It has to drop to $133.50 just to breakeven.
That wasn't you was it Ted?
...whales :rolleyes:

Edit: SNOW
More...
I buy fractional contracts! SNOW scares the hell out of me. You think it was Stoney? Jim Chanos short ZM, probably late news.
 
stonedinvestor said:

Uncrustables expected to be a $1B brand with 4M produced daily: J.M. Smucker CEO

  • SJM
    +3.34%

Uncrustables are more than a bite size of J.M. Smuckers' business.

The pre-made frozen sandwiches, which come in avariety of optionsfrom peanut butter and jelly to ham and cheddar roll-ups, are set to be a $1 billion brand for the consumer goods giant.

"We had set a half a billion dollar target for that brand. We've already achieved half a billion dollars in sales a year in advance of our original projections and we anticipate that brand over the next five years will become a one billion dollar brand," CEO Mark Smucker told Yahoo Finance Live.

In the fiscal 2023 first-quarter results, Uncrustable sales increased 30%, exceeding $160 million dollars. To keep up with demand, the company is expanding its Denver, Colo., plant and building a new one in McCalla, Ala. That's in addition to its plant in Scottsville, Ky.

"We continue to make as many Uncrustables as we can, about 4 million a day at this point," Smucker said.

J.M. Smuckers' portfolio includes 'resilient' categories: CEO
e3515f90-22fb-11ed-bfef-a8d69dd841e9

Smucker's Uncrustables sandwiches (Courtesy: The J.M. Smucker Co.)
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I love CASY, SJM, THS and MUSA. Stoney what’s the correlation?
 
vanzandt said:
BIG INSIDER BUY ALERT:

Nextdoor Holdings
KIND ($3.21)
765K shares for $2.5M
Total owned: 824K

*** I wanna say there were more insider buys on this thing last week too.

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. operates as the neighborhood network that connects neighbors, businesses, and public services in the United States and internationally. It enables small and mid-sized businesses, large brands, public agencies, and nonprofits to receive information, give and get help, and build connections. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
More...
If someone bought DVN, VET, OXY, or ERX when you called the Oil bottom, they’re up 25% in less than three weeks.
 
Nine_Ender said:
Canadian energy firms posting massive profits especially ones in Nat Gas. I currently hold the following : Athabaska, Gear Energy, Baytex, Pipestone, Birchcliff ( n. gas ), Crew Energy ( n. gas ). Recent trades in Crescent Point, Enerplus, Cenovus, WhiteCap; sold to get a little better action in others on news but all are decent buy candidates on dips. With Nat Gas rally I'm considering NuVista again as a trade, rebought Crew as a trade earlier in the week, bought Birchcliff as an earnings play and they posted a huge number.

Crew was on sale at 0.14 a share in 2020 is now roughly $6 and posted a quarterly net income of 0.55. Gives one an idea of the dynamic in play. Pipestone super cheap after getting hammered in recent weeks was under $4 posted 0.29 net income on the quarter. Gear tripled their dividend last week to 10% yield it's gradually repricing towards at least $2 imo.

Canadian investors are notoriously conservative and are basically pricing in $50-60 WTI in a recession. As the cash rolls in on these firms, the value story is compelling and hard to ignore.
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Update since Aug 11 ( they all were up prior but I'll quote closing price ); generally good trend may have some more legs. Crew hit a significant new 52 week high today before pulling back some. Some resistance levels appear to be broken in many of these stocks opening up the possibility of oversized moves depending on news.

ATH 2.36 --> 2.60 ( promising )
GXE 1.40 --> 1.32 ( only loser despite strong fundamentals -- it's puzzling at 9% yield )
BTE 6.42 --> 6.89 ( promising )
PIPE 4.16 --> 4.70 ( very promising huge move needed to regain 52 week high )
BIR 10.30 --> 11.72 ( nat gas slow steady trend prob ok as a day trade )
CR 5.94 --> 6.68 ( nat gas big move off bottom could be volatile prob worth $8 )
NVA 10.96 --> 11.30 ( nat gas not much of a move but well below 52 wk high )
CPG 9.94 --> 10.29 ( promising but may be dragged by US index weakness )
ERF 18.13 --> 20 ( most of move likely done for now )
CVE 23.70 --> 24.73 ( big cap prob not worth a play yet )
WCP 9.30 --> 9.55 ( large mid cap prob not worth a play yet )

Given recent moves I prefer Oil plays short term with maybe day trades on Nat Gas plays ( I prefer NVA as a potential break out over BIR ). Inventories dropped again tonight despite Biden's draining US emergency reserves. I currently hold ATH, GXE, BTE, PIPE, and CR but somewhat reduced my position in CR yesterday and sold my BIR/NVA last two days. Added to ATH at daily lows today. Wednesday often strong day to hold Oil stocks at least in the morning and take profits if things look dodgy. I'm unclear on CR/NVA they may run but I don't want oversized overnight risk today on them.
 
Nine_Ender said:
Update since Aug 11 ( they all were up prior but I'll quote closing price ); generally good trend may have some more legs. Crew hit a significant new 52 week high today before pulling back some. Some resistance levels appear to be broken in many of these stocks opening up the possibility of oversized moves depending on news.

ATH 2.36 --> 2.60 ( promising )
GXE 1.40 --> 1.32 ( only loser despite strong fundamentals -- it's puzzling at 9% yield )
BTE 6.42 --> 6.89 ( promising )
PIPE 4.16 --> 4.70 ( very promising huge move needed to regain 52 week high )
BIR 10.30 --> 11.72 ( nat gas slow steady trend prob ok as a day trade )
CR 5.94 --> 6.68 ( nat gas big move off bottom could be volatile prob worth $8 )
NVA 10.96 --> 11.30 ( nat gas not much of a move but well below 52 wk high )
CPG 9.94 --> 10.29 ( promising but may be dragged by US index weakness )
ERF 18.13 --> 20 ( most of move likely done for now )
CVE 23.70 --> 24.73 ( big cap prob not worth a play yet )
WCP 9.30 --> 9.55 ( large mid cap prob not worth a play yet )

Given recent moves I prefer Oil plays short term with maybe day trades on Nat Gas plays ( I prefer NVA as a potential break out over BIR ). Inventories dropped again tonight despite Biden's draining US emergency reserves. I currently hold ATH, GXE, BTE, PIPE, and CR but somewhat reduced my position in CR yesterday and sold my BIR/NVA last two days. Added to ATH at daily lows today. Wednesday often strong day to hold Oil stocks at least in the morning and take profits if things look dodgy. I'm unclear on CR/NVA they may run but I don't want oversized overnight risk today on them.
More...
I don’t understand why my VET tanked after earning and jumped to $28 today. I added more when Van agreed Nat&Oil were heading back up. It was a great call!
DINO $42-50
OXY. $57
LNG $140-$160
MPC $85-$100
VET $25 ave
VLO $97-$107
CRK $16 ave
ERX $46-$55 are a few.
 
TrailerParkTed said:
I don’t understand why my VET tanked after earning and jumped to $28 today. I added more when Van agreed Nat&Oil were heading back up. It was a great call!
DINO $42-50
OXY. $57
LNG $140-$160
MPC $85-$100
VET $25 ave
VLO $97-$107
CRK $16 ave
ERX $46-$55 are a few.
More...

Vermllian is Canadian but has big European nat gas operations. I never added it to my watch list would have been a good candidate at various points. Price moves can be tricky in any of these often they can drop a fair bit just before the best up moves. I bailed on Surge Energy at a large loss late last year then it doubled in 2 months. Some of this is due to the thinness of interest by retail and Cdn fund managers; the NYSE listed ones may have US buying dynamics. Crescent Point for example tends to move strangely at times overly influenced by US indexes.
 

Oh baby! That has got to be the baddest drone! ->

re: Given recent moves I prefer Oil plays short term

Nine I think there probably is a narrowing of the spread between Nat gas and oil.
I agree with your assessment.
 
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