Something has changed in me I guess. But I bet this thought has some far reaching ramifications and I'm probably not the only Portfolio manager to feel this way.
The days of silliness are done/ it's going to be tough sledding for companies that don't have cash flow to rely on.
We are entering a new period in the market.- We are moving from sure recession to maybe soft landing. Unless we all think Jamie Dimon has lost his mojo we must be prepared for the recession part-- it just comes later than most people thought due to savings that the US consumer has built up because of the pandemic.-
I predicted this a ways back but we are going to start to hear a steady drumbeat of Europe is falling apart. Europe is in recession and all of that. The US market will begin to be referred to as The Only game In Town and the safest bet when compared to Europe.
I've been through this before. Europe's problems will also land here at some point.
The good news? The Fed by then will have built up rates to the point where he can hold them high for an extended period to thoroughly stamp out inflation.-
The market sees it differently the market sees the Fed lowering rates-- and I am in this camp-- I think they talk one way but the idea is to get the rates high enough so that The Fed can do a whole bunch of 1/4 cuts...
But the Fed does not like being made a fool of or being led by the reins so pretty sure some pain is coming our way as the Fed makes us understand they are in control and not vice versa.
Can we run up from here? YES. As inflation comes down and more and more folks say No Recession we can lure the market up...
That move though will fail. Two more .75 hikes will take the breath out of the market sure as a Mike Tyson left hook. ~stoney
The days of silliness are done/ it's going to be tough sledding for companies that don't have cash flow to rely on.
We are entering a new period in the market.- We are moving from sure recession to maybe soft landing. Unless we all think Jamie Dimon has lost his mojo we must be prepared for the recession part-- it just comes later than most people thought due to savings that the US consumer has built up because of the pandemic.-
I predicted this a ways back but we are going to start to hear a steady drumbeat of Europe is falling apart. Europe is in recession and all of that. The US market will begin to be referred to as The Only game In Town and the safest bet when compared to Europe.
I've been through this before. Europe's problems will also land here at some point.
The good news? The Fed by then will have built up rates to the point where he can hold them high for an extended period to thoroughly stamp out inflation.-
The market sees it differently the market sees the Fed lowering rates-- and I am in this camp-- I think they talk one way but the idea is to get the rates high enough so that The Fed can do a whole bunch of 1/4 cuts...
But the Fed does not like being made a fool of or being led by the reins so pretty sure some pain is coming our way as the Fed makes us understand they are in control and not vice versa.
Can we run up from here? YES. As inflation comes down and more and more folks say No Recession we can lure the market up...
That move though will fail. Two more .75 hikes will take the breath out of the market sure as a Mike Tyson left hook. ~stoney
