What is the unseen danger?
Well margins are getting all the attention. Margins are shrinking in some retail. That's actually a good thing in a way the consumer has reached his or her limit and is not paying any higher prices. So Retail must cut costs. That means the consumer is helping cool the economy. The Fed likes that.
So what is the unseen danger-- RUSSIA DEFAULTS <----
So far in this strange dance with Russia we have been punishing hem with sanctions yet letting them pump & deliver oil and gas. It doesn't make much sense. To keep the country solvent I guess for a future leader Rusia has been allowed to pay of debt in such a way that they have not had to default.
A lot of time has passed and smart banks have probably dislidoged themselves completely... but could one or two financial firms get tied up in a Russia default and create a LTM like situation here... a distressed situation?
As the war drags on in Ukraine, Western nations are looking to add to their sanctions roster, which had started to dry up in recent weeks.
The U.S. is now considering a full block to Russia's ability to pay American bondholders as the Kremlin navigates a web of sanctions by tapping domestic dollar reserves to make coupon payments (its funds are frozen in the West). Things could happen quickly if the Biden administration lets a temporary exemption expire next week that had allowed for payments that originate from non-U.S. accounts to be made through American financial institutions.
Snapshot:Some officials at the Treasury Department had previously argued that allowing Russia to pay its debt would further "drain its remaining valuable dollar reserves" that would otherwise be spent on funding the invasion of Ukraine. The thinking now is to increase the pressure as Moscow looks to stave off a financial crisis via a set of emergency measures and strict capital controls. The ruble has already pared all the losses seen since the invasion to become the world's best performing currency this year, while economic activity is improving as Russia continues to make revenue on gas flows to the EU.
"It continues to be our baseline scenario that a default will happen," said Carlos de Sousa, emerging markets strategist at Vontobel Asset Management. "It is an interesting one," added Matthew Vogel, head of sovereign research at FIM Partners. "The move would leave Russia as a debtor seemingly desperate to make payments, but not allowed to do so."