Goldman Sachs is cutting its market forecast for the year, but that baseline assumes no recession.
Goldman's equity strategy team cut its end-2022 target for the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) to 4,300from 4,700, noting investors have been "mauled" since the Jan. 3 peak for the index.
But if there is a recession, it would push the S&P down to 3,600, which would be an 11% drop from current levels.
"Our economists assign a 35% probability of recession in the next two years," strategist David Kostin wrote in a note. "However, if by year-end the economy is poised to enter a recession in 2023, a combination of reduced EPS estimates and a wider yield gap would drive a lower index level."
If the economy avoids recession, but real rates (TIP) keep rising, that would take the S&P down to 3,800.
Goldman's equity strategy team cut its end-2022 target for the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) to 4,300from 4,700, noting investors have been "mauled" since the Jan. 3 peak for the index.
But if there is a recession, it would push the S&P down to 3,600, which would be an 11% drop from current levels.
"Our economists assign a 35% probability of recession in the next two years," strategist David Kostin wrote in a note. "However, if by year-end the economy is poised to enter a recession in 2023, a combination of reduced EPS estimates and a wider yield gap would drive a lower index level."
If the economy avoids recession, but real rates (TIP) keep rising, that would take the S&P down to 3,800.