SO MANY CROSS CURRENTS.
I have tried to write a couple sentences on the market a few times and given up-- so many cross currents! I have a hard time beginning and ending.
A) Last time we went lower and recovered I had the bright idea that growth was slowing and so folks would return to sexy high growth NASDAQ stocks. That mindset proved wrong. I think recently we had another brief spurt of that rational...
B) Upcoming Earn will be brutal because it's not enough to beat or meet your number what are you going to say about the future? This great slow down.
C) Bond yields are on the way back up.
D) Oil is on the way....?
E) There can be no recession with high employment. People have their timing wrong.
F) What about profits? Ironically in a classic inflationary environment earn kind of hold up because ta da you are passing onto the consumer the cost and getting higher prices while most likely cutting costs (belt tightening). There are opportunities in retail I feel.
G) But this consumer pull in is for real because they have been scared by high gas and food prices.
H) The consumer is often referred to as 2/3 of the market... So if they decidedly went into a funk-- we are in some pretty big trouble.
I) It seems we are fighting a " mood " a negative feeling about our prospects as a country.
With Trump yahoos never going to be satisfied we can be assured that some portion of the population is already firmly negative so when the other side agrees... we become negative. It is self fulfilling. What I get a laugh at is FOX news idiots, that round table group of fake models and mansplainers --they like to blame Biden for the inflation because he gave out those checks-- I didn't get one of those fucking checks! But I bet a whole bunch of the Fox viewership did. So they cashed their Gov money & now complain about it. You could of given the money back to stop this terrible inflation but you didn't did you?
J) Healthcare is a smart place to be and Biotech... I'm thinking now steel and steel used in digging for oil is another smart place to be. And in the long run I like the big oil's as I think they have a much longer shelf life than we think on the heavy oil side and enough cash to simply buy the solar panel industry if they need to. Shell makes a lot of sense...
K) Wed of next week we get the same CPI economic number that tanked the market last time-
L) Banks are acting really bad... one wonders why?
M) Contagion from Bitcoin? You would think there is some although they swear up and down no US bank has a relationship with Bitcoin.
N) Softbank Situation. Some of the recent rally in tech may be due to a finality of selling from Softbank. The market for up and coming companies has cratered. The valuation of SOFTBANK's start ups not good.. What do they have to sell to stay liquid?
O) The leverage that usually sinks the market it appears to be in the start ups & the Crypto world... some folks are going to go down- what will they drag down with them? ~stoney
