GBA Presents: RADIO SAVANT-!
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
Don't listen to the TV.
Tech has bottomed.
I'll even throw out a target.
11,800
Edit: And if today is not the bottom, tomorrow will be for sure.
$270.74 on the QQQ
Write that down.
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You guys watch over the next few weeks.
The mantra is gonna change and you know what all the so called experts are gonna start saying as the markets defy logic and start climbing?
RECESSIONS ARE HEALTHY
And they are
The Nasdaq is down 32% ytd.
I've been crunching numbers all morning.
Looking at some of the estimates that have already been revised. Companies like Cisco, Oracle, Dell. All solid.
All the companies you ever read about, hear about, the ones covered by the financial press and dozens of websites... the ones that make no money but soared to extreme valuations... that's not the typical Nasdaq 100 company. Not even close.But here's the best thing of all... you'd be hard pressed to find a company on there with a lousy balance sheet. Most don't even carry any debt. They're enterprise value is below their market-cap.
They ALL have excellent balance sheets and plenty of cash.
Debt and a strong dollar can crush a company like Caterpillar, but companies like Palo Alto, Cisco, Oracle, even friggin IBM, it's not even an issue.
I wrote way back when that my 2023 target on QQQ, >>> 2023<<<... not a typo.... was $265.
We got within 5 points today.
I don't know about the Dow, and even the S&P, but the Nasdaq is at or near a bottom.
Get long quality tech, and remember...
Recessions are healthy.
~VZ
The mantra is gonna change and you know what all the so called experts are gonna start saying as the markets defy logic and start climbing?
RECESSIONS ARE HEALTHY
And they are
The Nasdaq is down 32% ytd.
I've been crunching numbers all morning.
Looking at some of the estimates that have already been revised. Companies like Cisco, Oracle, Dell. All solid.
All the companies you ever read about, hear about, the ones covered by the financial press and dozens of websites... the ones that make no money but soared to extreme valuations... that's not the typical Nasdaq 100 company. Not even close.But here's the best thing of all... you'd be hard pressed to find a company on there with a lousy balance sheet. Most don't even carry any debt. They're enterprise value is below their market-cap.
They ALL have excellent balance sheets and plenty of cash.
Debt and a strong dollar can crush a company like Caterpillar, but companies like Palo Alto, Cisco, Oracle, even friggin IBM, it's not even an issue.
I wrote way back when that my 2023 target on QQQ, >>> 2023<<<... not a typo.... was $265.
We got within 5 points today.
I don't know about the Dow, and even the S&P, but the Nasdaq is at or near a bottom.
Get long quality tech, and remember...
Recessions are healthy.
~VZ
I'm wrong.
I am. I've been doing more DD, going back to 2010, 2011, 2015-2016, 2007-2008, the dot com bubble. Not a lot of good numbers before that, just charts. I wasn't looking at charts, I was looking at the companies that are still around today, their PE's, price/cashflow, price/sales, ev/ebitda, and for fun, a few analyst commentaries. You could start a whole thread on that. Friggin' comical.
I'm not too proud to say I was wrong. I need to adjust my 2023 target down.
But I can't set a target. I think 10,100 would be a worst case scenario, but it's impossible to call.
That level is with the "known unknowns". It's the "unknown unknowns" that are impossible to make allowance for. And right now, the odds of an unknown unknown seem to be pretty damn high. That however is an opinion, not a fact.
So... I think I was wrong. The bottom on tech is not in yet.
In a nutshell... my initial analysis for a broad call like that was too myopic.
It was my bad.
With that said, I see the naz futures are up 84 points.
Thats my myopic analysis being right. Predicting the algo's.
I think I'll just stick to that and bite my tongue on everything else going forward.
Predicting the whales' algos short term is easy.
But no one can call the bottom right now.
EDIT:
I was right about one thing though. Recessions are healthy for the markets, and they're required from time to time. Kinda like weeding your garden.
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How is the Stoney family doing, any word?
He's fine, I sent him to annual refresher training at the Savant School a few months early. He was costing everyone here too much money and the emails were overwhelming me.
28 QQQ $272 puts, out $2.5-$2.70(very few). Classic Savant trade!
Most out $2.5-$2.60 or $2.55 average
Most out $2.5-$2.60 or $2.55 average
The worst part was having stale quotes and delayed trade reports, kind of tough. My original target was $3.50, with stale data I was not going to gamble.
Buy the dip.
Hard reversal coming.
buy 100 of the $277 calls here for .24
2 bagger min by 2:30PM
Hahahaahahah
There ya go Ted.
I just gave you a 150% return.
$0.60 bid
And you didn't even have to wait for lunch!
Stoney would say that doesn't count.