I don't care what the experts say, we'll be lucky to see one rate cut this year, if any.
One doesn't need 100's of WS analysts and the however many Fed (governors/banks/researchers/data analysts) assigned to figure this out. Here in the real world, there's too many help wanted signs at the bottom of the employment food chain, and just like toxins in seafood, that works its way up and affects everything.
New car prices are ridiculous, rents and housing prices haven't really budged, insurance costs across the board only go up. And that's the short list. While food and energy might have somewhat stabilized for now, everything else keeps creeping up.
Last Spring when they were all talking about rate cuts in 2024, I said there was no way that would happen. Pretty sure that'll be the case again. If they do cut rates, it'll be for political reasons, but I think Powell has more integrity than that.