Gary Smith challange, any taker?

Quote from roberk:

Scientist,
Gary Smith did make it. . As for looking for quick riches he stresses it took him years before he got on top.
I think he is just sceptical about the claims of many traders, and he has been in the business for years so might know something.
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I would like to confirm that Gary Smith went through the successful process in his book. There was a time in his life that he participated in misc.invest.futures and misc. invest .technical. It coincided with the periods before, during and after his book. His publisher is a well recognized publisher in the financial industry field.

I believe he went for a long time before becoming successful.
 
Quote from tradersaavy:

This is an interesting statement coming from someone who is, from what I gather, respected in the industry.

If I was starting out trying to daytrade index futures, this statement might discourage me. I hope that any newbies that read anything on this website, from any person, takes it all with a grain of salt. What is gold to one man is the next man's garbage can apply in many aspects of life and certainly in trading as well.
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As in any business venture, and even more so in trading for a living...the "vehicle" you choose to focus on can make all the difference in the world. We traded options on several exchange floors when they had a nice edge to be had...and then on to futures when the same edge applied. Things pretty much came full circle a few years ago, and the "surrogate specialist" (basic) strategy has been back in favorable territory for some time now.

During January I traded options, futures, single stock futures, and still 90% equities. I do my best to keep up with all the instruments available. BT offers most vehicles, but we must have successful "bottom line" traders to continue our growth, and we find that goal is much easier in the equities markets.

With profit margins so low on equities, no one can say that we encourage equity trading from a "price markup" vantage point, so I hope that what I says makes some sense to everyone. It's just so much simpler to trade listed stocks, do the openings, read the tape, watch the open book.....and use the futures and other vehicles as "leading indicators.

Every few years, it seems, firms come out of the woodwork pushing all sorts of "new" instruments...most of which are geared towards the Firm's profits, not the traders. Remember when the retail brokers were actually pushing "day trading"? We spoke out against allowing (especially "encouraging") the average person at home from "day trading." '

This is a serious business, and should be approached that way (I know, a "broken record" but true).

Don
 
Thanks for the IM....

I just want to correct the mistake a couple of posts up....regarding my NYC traders who were "breaking even" and now making "triple" that (3 x breaking even = breaking even)..

I know that they were making some money, a couple of grand or so, and now are doing much, much better...with some direction and encouragement.

Thanks for pointing out my mistake...

All the best...

Don
 
I have nothing to add.

nitro
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Some thoughts -

On 3 years of profitable record.

There are BIG speculators (or gamblers) who could keep averaging down all the way to a bottom and then hang on to the position. Then they hold it through new highs after new highs before unloading. The records of these people look so bad and they win it all. Case in point, Warren Buffet was having a 50% drawdown during the internet bubble. If he started out only from the few years right before his crashing draw down period ... he would have been cleaned house :)

But, there are also hedge funds with amazing track records year after year which blew up overnight. Cases in point, Long Term Capital and Victor Neiderhoffer.

So it is very hard to justify whether a fund or a person can, or, will perform in the future, even equipped with a long term track record.

The reason is pretty simple but often ignored - the markets we are dealing with keep changing everyday. The competition we faced yesterday are mostly gone (90% failure in 1st 3-months of index future trading). And newcomers are more likely to be better equipped in terms of knowledge (acquired from the internet and books :) ) and tools (better technology, cheaper execution cost, etc.).

It is not the ability to extract the most amount of money from the markets you have traded that allow you to survive your next big draw down, it is your ability to swallow your ego and understand that what you know at this point in time may not be applicable tomorrow and you have the capability, confidence, and most important of all, patience, to figure out what will work tomorrow. That, work against undercapitalized accounts.

There is a parallel of the changing environment of the markets - blackjack in Las Vegas. It used to be 4 decks of cards, then 6 decks, now some casinos using 8 decks. And rules are changing too. From pre-fixed point to scramble the cards, to the current shuffle every hand if needed. If you are a pro blackjack player, you must modify your style to adapt as your edge has changed.

I have seen enough hot shots during my career in this trading field from floor traders (I was one), to hedge funds (I worked for one), to self-educated independent traders who can survive and making good money for a few years and then just disappeared. So beginner beware!
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The usual suspects seem to have done a fine job slamming Gary Smith, but its not surprising that no one who has posted to this thread has taken up Gary on his challenge...

I doubt there is even one person on this entire board who has started with 25k in a futures account on Jan 00' and has made decent profits (50k or more per year) for the three straight years ending Dec 03'...
 
Quote from nitro:The challenge posted is absurd. It was clearly made by a piker. The people that are making money trading these markets are making $10,000 - $50,000 a day. What on Heaven or Earth would cause them to go after a $500 "prize?" nitro
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The thing is that everyone is SO fond of making dramatic statements to support their own particular theories.. as in the above.. why do you exclude those happy people who trade those markets who merely make $5k per day? Thats not so bad is it? Maybe you know stuff of course.. like there are no traders in the $0 - $10,000 bracket? Or maybe they do not count... except that a gain is a gain as i was once told by a genie of the market.. a little known genie of course... lol
 
You are missing the point. _EVEN_ if someone had done that, what would he have to do to claim his $500 - LOL.

He would have to show statements to the effect? Would he have to show each trade?

What would be gained from it?

Raise the stakes to $25,000 if he is so sure that no one has done it, and see how many come out of the woodwork. Until then, it is a _joke_.

nitro
Quote from Specul8r:

The usual suspects seem to have done a fine job slamming Gary Smith, but its not surprising that no one who has posted to this thread has taken up Gary on his challenge...

I doubt there is even one person on this entire board who has started with 25k in a futures account on Jan 00' and has made decent profits (50k or more per year) for the three straight years ending Dec 03'...
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Quote from Neil:

The thing is that everyone is SO fond of making dramatic statements to support their own particular theories.. as in the above.. why do you exclude those happy people who trade those markets who merely make $5k per day? Thats not so bad is it? Maybe you know stuff of course.. like there are no traders in the $0 - $10,000 bracket? Or maybe they do not count... except that a gain is a gain as i was once told by a genie of the market.. a little known genie of course... lol
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No one is excluding anybody. Read the whole post. I mention those that make $5K a day. The $5,000 a day traders were mentioned because I do not know anyone making less than that. Doesn't mean they don't exist or that taking $100 a day from trading stock index futures isn't a feat.

But it does not matter. What matters is, if _you_ made say $1000 a day or $500 a day trading stock index futures, and someone offered you a $500 "prize" to show them your statements, would _you_ do it?

Not only that, do you know that giving someone your statements can be interpreted as soliciting for funds? Do you know what the ramifications of that are by the CFTC if you do not have the proper registrations?


nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

No one is excluding anybody. Read the whole post. I mention those that make $5K a day. The $5,000 a day traders were mentioned because I do not know anyone making less than that.

But it does not matter. What matters is, if _you_ made say $1000 a day or $500 a day trading stock index futures, and someone offered you a $500 "prize" to show them your statements, would _you_ do it?

nitro
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exactly. his low ball "bounty" clearly indicates he has zero faith in his own statement. what a joker !

best,

surfer:)
 
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