When you use these stats, I would look to normalize for range (monthly). This August had a fairly large range I would assume (haven’t looked). The SPXW241001P05650000 is trading 70
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FYI: Historically the Next Two Months are Down
- Thread starter Baron
- Start date
When you use these stats, I would look to normalize for range (monthly). This August had a fairly large range I would assume (haven’t looked). The SPXW241001P05650000 is trading 70
Specifically, what do you mean by 'normalize' for range?
PS: My quote could be misunderstood as I said "In 23 years...". What that really meant is that my sample size is 23 years. I have tabular data going longer back than that, but my manual and more detailed back-test stops at 2000.
It was meant when you said that not a single august month (in past 23y) retraced at least 40%. Since you base it on a monthly-range, I think you should incorparate something on the range of a particular month. I (assume!) that shorter monthly ranges have a higher probability of seeing larger retracements then bars with larger bodies. Since last august had a fairly large range, the probability of seeing a retracement of >40% in the body will be lower (assumption!).
I get your point. However, a 40 % minimum retracement is true for all months in the data I looked at. Some of those Septembers were up months, too, but somewhere during the month there was a dip into the prior month range.
Anyway, I'm not going to attempt to predict accurately where September is going. I just use this as a data point to support the short side if other factors line up. So far in September I have 100 % short trades. And I'm a guy who tends to push the long side.
I am going to call bullshit, just by looking at this year's chart.
Jan and Feb quite the opposite,
Apr quite the contrary
Aug far away from 100%
In six months it got 4 wrong, so yeah a whole lot of crap.
Jan and Feb quite the opposite,
Apr quite the contrary
Aug far away from 100%
In six months it got 4 wrong, so yeah a whole lot of crap.
(REUTERS)
Wall Street seems to be making a habit of these early month stock plunges, with Tuesday's tremor a mild aftershock from the brief August quake one month ago.
Given that September historically tends to be the worst month of the year for stock market returns - with August a close second - then seasonal flurries like this probably should be treated as such. This too will likely pass.
And yet there's inevitably some anxiety that the sharp retreat from near record highs is rooted in something more fundamental. And on that score, this week's critical U.S. employment report and another dour reading on global manufacturing for August cranked up the tension again.
While factories in the U.S. and around the world have been spluttering for the best part of two years, there had been some sign of a manufacturing upturn earlier this year. But the sector seems to be suffering a relapse, not least as China's economy continues to struggle with its property bust and growth there wanes.
A 'Help Wanted' sign hangs in restaurant window in Medford, Massachusetts, U.S., January 25, 2023. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. output contracted again in August, according to Tuesday's release of the Institute for Supply Management's latest factory survey, even if some modest improvement in employment readings may ease fears for this week's big labor market readouts. The first of those starts today with a report on July job openings.
But survey signs of a further decline in new orders and rising inventories suggested a deepening slowdown in manufacturing is taking hold.
What's more, JPMorgan's global manufacturing index slipped to its weakest reading of the year and registered its second month in a row in contractionary territory.
"More concerning are signs that business equipment spending is losing steam - potentially pointing to a weakening in the pace of hiring as well," the bank said in a report.
While manufacturing only accounts for about 10% of the U.S. economy, it's 15% of euro zone GDP, 20% of Germany's output and 26% of China's.
Wall Street seems to be making a habit of these early month stock plunges, with Tuesday's tremor a mild aftershock from the brief August quake one month ago.
Given that September historically tends to be the worst month of the year for stock market returns - with August a close second - then seasonal flurries like this probably should be treated as such. This too will likely pass.
And yet there's inevitably some anxiety that the sharp retreat from near record highs is rooted in something more fundamental. And on that score, this week's critical U.S. employment report and another dour reading on global manufacturing for August cranked up the tension again.
While factories in the U.S. and around the world have been spluttering for the best part of two years, there had been some sign of a manufacturing upturn earlier this year. But the sector seems to be suffering a relapse, not least as China's economy continues to struggle with its property bust and growth there wanes.
A 'Help Wanted' sign hangs in restaurant window in Medford, Massachusetts, U.S., January 25, 2023. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. output contracted again in August, according to Tuesday's release of the Institute for Supply Management's latest factory survey, even if some modest improvement in employment readings may ease fears for this week's big labor market readouts. The first of those starts today with a report on July job openings.
But survey signs of a further decline in new orders and rising inventories suggested a deepening slowdown in manufacturing is taking hold.
What's more, JPMorgan's global manufacturing index slipped to its weakest reading of the year and registered its second month in a row in contractionary territory.
"More concerning are signs that business equipment spending is losing steam - potentially pointing to a weakening in the pace of hiring as well," the bank said in a report.
While manufacturing only accounts for about 10% of the U.S. economy, it's 15% of euro zone GDP, 20% of Germany's output and 26% of China's.
WELL, WELL WELL.
I have never seen a post by the overlord of ET. This must be important. Sounds like you are talking about stuff we hashed out weeks ago (ahem) Strictly from a quant perspective (not me) those Aug highs.. the fact that this bonce off the initial correction here (NVDA led) has not eclipsed those highs has the computers in an angry and frisky mood.
Back to the real world-- POLITICS hello!!! It's different this year for obvious reasons. I mean this market will not like a Nazi in charge!
We can all agree on that.
Keep up the good work Baron!
Yours In stocks, Stoney
What country election are you thinking about when you write: different this year... Nazi...?
That's a strong word, who would that be?
I don't think any of your candidates deserves it.
As a whole you'll do well with anyone and market will rally.
Obviously there'll be trash talk between sides, but nazi... I couldn't even guess which side you are on with that language used.