FYI: Historically the Next Two Months are Down

[Baron]

The next couple months could get shaky. Historically the worst two months for the S&P 500 during an election year, based on the last 25 years of data.

In September, the S&P 500 has had just a 33% win rate, with an average return of -2.95%.

October looks even worse, with only a 17% win rate and an average return of -3.62%.

Interestingly, this follows a typically strong August, where the index has ended in the green with a 100% win rate.

 

[SunTrader]

Last 25 years worth - elections, at least Presidential ones, are every 4 years?

But I do agree with the premise a correction is likely in the next 60 days, and a impetus might just be Sept 18-22 time period = Fed Day and Fall Equinox +/- a day lands on a Sunday (but very often a turn date).

 

[Darc]

First Interest Rate cut is expected on 18 September. The same Day Trump is sentenced.

Mark that in your Diary, just Incase Powell or the sentencing Judge has a bad Day.

 

[S2007S]

First Interest Rate cut is expected on 18 September. The same Day Trump is sentenced.

Mark that in your Diary, just Incase Powell or the sentencing Judge has a bad Day.

.25 cut is what markets expect.

If they dont cut markets will be quite surprised!

As for the trump news, means nothing for the markets!

 

[Sprout]

View attachment 347954

The next couple months could get shaky. Historically the worst two months for the S&P 500 during an election year, based on the last 25 years of data.

In September, the S&P 500 has had just a 33% win rate, with an average return of -2.95%.

October looks even worse, with only a 17% win rate and an average return of -3.62%.

Interestingly, this follows a typically strong August, where the index has ended in the green with a 100% win rate.

What's the source of the graphic? Kinda looks like visualcapitalist content.

 

[fan27]

View attachment 347954

The next couple months could get shaky. Historically the worst two months for the S&P 500 during an election year, based on the last 25 years of data.

In September, the S&P 500 has had just a 33% win rate, with an average return of -2.95%.

October looks even worse, with only a 17% win rate and an average return of -3.62%.

Interestingly, this follows a typically strong August, where the index has ended in the green with a 100% win rate.

Could have used this information at the beginning of August. lol

 

[v-shape-0DTE]

The V force in this market has never been stronger. If you look at the monthly chart, you will see one of the most amazing tails/stick saves ever for August. So we are stuck in a powerful uptrend that CAN'T break. There is just no way this market can fall. Every time it attempts to it is immediately bought back up. I see a month of more extreme rallying and some aggressive V shape recoveries for every down move. I don't see how it ever can be stopped. Market is making multiple ATH the next few months.

We had 2 attempts in April and July to bring the market down and it just led to 2 rapid V recoveries. It is over for bears in this market. Any time you get a decent red day, you have to expect the V the following days. THEY JUST CANNOT EVER KEEP THIS MARKET DOWN!

 

[nitrene]

This is what I got from Google Lens:

August must be the "never short a dull market" since wall streeters go on vacation. I guess when they sober up they start selling.

So the expected loss for the next 2 months is -2% for September & -3% for October.

Here is the monthly expected return for every month sequentially:

Jan -0.6327%
Feb -0.1026%
Mar 0.4275%
Apr 0.4773%
May 0.7242%
Jun 0.2272%
Jul 0.5016%
Aug 2.77%
Sep -1.9765%
Oct -3.0046%
Nov 0.5427%
Dec 0.9296%

Just avoid Jan, Feb, Sept & Oct on election years and you should have a good risk-adjusted return.

 

[Laissez Faire]

There haven't been a September in 23 years which didn't retrace at least 40 % of the August range. The last 4 prior years were all red - taking out the prior month low - with an average change of - 5.72 %.

Will this year be different? I don't know, but there's enough data to support some good short plays coming up. NQ's been a laggard on this recent leg higher, too.

The perfect play would be a weak rally into NFP on Thursday to kick off the anticipated September sell. Might not get even that.

 

[Overnight]

View attachment 347954

The next couple months could get shaky. Historically the worst two months for the S&P 500 during an election year, based on the last 25 years of data.

In September, the S&P 500 has had just a 33% win rate, with an average return of -2.95%.

October looks even worse, with only a 17% win rate and an average return of -3.62%.

Interestingly, this follows a typically strong August, where the index has ended in the green with a 100% win rate.

I agree with your assessment. There's a song for that.