Futures Trading Analysis

[marketsurfer]

You can't. And both ND and I have answered this question umpteen times. But ms doesn't want to hear it and pretends he's asking it for the first time. But I'll post this again as all I have to do is copy and paste:

Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time.

Those who don't know how to define "behavior", "market behavior", "particular market behavior", "outcome", "profitable outcome", "consistently profitable outcome", and so on, or even what "research and testing" entail will not gain much information from this definition.

Levels of predictibility?? Consistently profitable??? This is becoming surreal and the questions have not been answered despite verbiage to the contrary.

Then u cant use the term odds. You folks misuse terms often and it should be pointed out.

Your post is empty rhetoric that means nothing.

Sorry but thats the truth. Anyone who hasnt drank the koolaid can see that. Wake up people or you will continue to lose.

 

[dbphoenix]

Then u cant use the term odds. You folks misuse terms often and it should be pointed out.

Your post is empty rhetoric that means nothing.

Sorry but thats the truth. Anyone who hasnt drank the koolaid can see that. Wake up people or you will continue to lose.

It's only empty if one doesn't understand it. Clearly you do not.

As to losing, you're not exactly operating from a position of strength in that regard.

 

[monoid]

Whereas the price action folks somehow believe that their entries somehow provide greater odds of success acrosd single trades or series.

correction @marketsurfer. Price Action folks believe that their entries provide the lowest risk possible for a given setup/pattern. Very different from what you have stated -- no one in the right frame of mind trading the market will believe that entries provide a greater odds of success.

I think you are very confused .... get some rest in the beach!

All the best.

Regards,
Monoid.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Those who don't know how to define "behavior", "market behavior", "particular market behavior", "outcome", "profitable outcome", "consistently profitable outcome", and so on, or even what "research and testing" entail will not gain much information from this definition.

A Texan, a Russian and a New Yorker go to a restaurant in London.

The waiter tells them, "Excuse me -- if you were going to order the steak, I'm afraid there's a shortage due to the mad cow disease."

The Texan says, "What's a shortage?"
The Russian says, "What's a steak?"
The New Yorker says, "What's 'excuse me'?"


http://jokes.cc.com/funny-food/qy22yj/a-texan--a-russian-and-a-new-yorker

 

[baro-san]

I don't think it's worth arguing too much. People enter and leave this discussion with their opinion.

There are people capable of understanding and doing things that others are not capable.

 

[Datum]

So I am interested in how people learn to trade index futures contracts and the systems they use.

What works for me is Causality, The Elimination of Choice.
Veteran ETers state over and over again that all you need is to stick with 1 thing and work at it until you get it. Easier said than done and if you have the same personality traits as I do, like many others here, attaining constant profitability can be even more difficult:

If you're used to dotting all your I's and crossing all your T's(me), if you're used to acing all your exams(me), if you're used to "measure twice, cut once"(me), if you're used to making sure everything is just right so you can avoid risk, if you hold grudges(me), if you absolutely can't stand discomfort, if you put off till tomorrow what you can take care of today...you will struggle madly in the trading arena

Those who will have the greatest difficulty are those who are perfectionists(me), those who are thrill-seekers(me), those who cannot forgive others (hold grudges)(me), those with massive egos(me) who have to win at all costs(me), those who think everything in the world can be divided into good and bad according to their personal beliefs.

NoD also gave a hint on HOW to finally crack through my THINK THINK limiting beliefs:

Trading for a living requires a business plan, comfort working in an environment of uncertainty, ease in quickly letting go of the past and moving on, humility, full acceptance that slightly above average is excellent.

and I might add ...hundreds of hours developing a method, testing it, organizing it, orchestrating it, start again, and again, until you get positive results, after, of course, many, many backtests and sim trading weeks/months.

BUT, even before all that, I had to realize, like Neo in "Matrix Reloaded" when he finally meets with the architect, that : the problem is choice.

Because choice is the result of my thinking (driven by emotion) and gets me to make poor trading decisions. So, if I can't rely on choice, how can I make good trading decisions?

Again in the "Matrix Reloaded", Neo, Trinity and Morpheus visit the Merovingian seeking the Keymaker.

The Merovingian, fully aware The Oracle sent them, asks them if they know WHY they were sent. He makes a point on the difference between people with the "why" and others without. Describing people with "why" being in position of power (knowledge in the case of trading)

That knowledge (fully backtested method with proper stats) puts me in position of power because I know my "whys"

I know, because of my hard work gathering proper stats, that more often than not, if price is forming an ascending triangle following an uptrend, chances are in my favor if I enter LONG on a breakout pullback in direction of previous breakout of (upper) horizontal line of ascending triangle.

Needless to say, I no longer think (choose to enter or exit a trade) when I trade as I already set everything in stone honing my method. It is now my method that dictates what I do; If this, then that. If that, then this. Which gets us, in the end, at the only real truth: Causality

Action, Reaction. it's all I do!

 

[Redneck]

A Texan, a Russian and a New Yorker go to a restaurant in London.

The waiter tells them, "Excuse me -- if you were going to order the steak, I'm afraid there's a shortage due to the mad cow disease."

The Texan says, "What's a shortage?"
The Russian says, "What's a steak?"
The New Yorker says, "What's 'excuse me'?"


http://jokes.cc.com/funny-food/qy22yj/a-texan--a-russian-and-a-new-yorker

Bullshit TW - A Texan wouldn't be caught dead in NY

RN

 

[monoid]

Bullshit TW - A Texan wouldn't be caught dead in NY

RN

@Redneck: The restaurant was in London! Out of limits for a Texan?

-Monoid.

 

[Redneck]

@Redneck: The restaurant was in London! Out of limits for a Texan?

-Monoid.

Well duhhhh


===============

Texan in London - the hat alone would give everyone pause


TW = I'll excuse myself now..., and go learn to read (see spot run..., see spot run up a hill)

My apologies Sir

RN

 

[dbphoenix]

What works for me is Causality, The Elimination of Choice.

Veteran ETers state over and over again that all you need is to stick with 1 thing and work at it until you get it. Easier said than done and if you have the same personality traits as I do, like many others here, attaining constant profitability can be even more difficult . . .

Good stuff, Datum. And those who are intrigued by this should read your last post (just click his name and his posts: there are only five).