Future Spread Trading

Junkou said:
very likely has been verified. haha
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You are proving your own point. The two markets can diverge. So what if you were on the wrong side of the spread? You would be down 2.2%

The YM is it's own animal precisely because it is price-weighted on 30 companies, as opposed to ES market cap-weight on 500 companies, or NQ market cap-weight on 100 companies.
 
Overnight said:
You are proving your own point. The two markets can diverge. So what if you were on the wrong side of the spread? You would be down 2.2%

The YM is it's own animal precisely because it is price-weighted on 30 companies, as opposed to ES market cap-weight on 500 companies, or NQ market cap-weight on 100 companies.[/QUOTE
Overnight said:
You are proving your own point. The two markets can diverge. So what if you were on the wrong side of the spread? You would be down 2.2%

The YM is it's own animal precisely because it is price-weighted on 30 companies, as opposed to ES market cap-weight on 500 companies, or NQ market cap-weight on 100 companies.
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Unlike others, you make the right point here: how can you know which one to long and which one to short.

Fortunately, most of time I bet on the right side.

I know is because I have the right models and tools to make the right decision! It's not 100% accurate, but, 85% of the time is correct.

So, to reply to all questions: spread trading is not for any trader. Don't just simply long NQ and short YM, or short NQ and long YM. You need a statistical model to tell you when to open and close the trade, and when to hold cash.
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ok Junkou got your point getting direction correct is important ... but some people are asking here if something like this can go out of whack big time! could you clarify the max risk you have experienced in real money a/c or have seen in back test! (in $ / margin applied , I am assuming there is no margin offset either ?)
 
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traderjo said:
ok Junkou got your point getting direction correct is important ... but some people are asking here if something like this can go out of whack big time! could you clarify the max risk you have experienced in real money a/c or have seen in back test! (in $ / margin applied , I am assuming there is no margin offset either ?)
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The max loss in modelling going back to 1998 is 9.8% in one month (no leverage).
The max loss in trading since 2018 is 1.9% in a day (no leverage). Max drawdown is 2.4% (lost 1.2% in each of two consecutive days).
 
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Bang bang, MNQ is up 0.3%, while MYM and M2K both fell 1%.

Today's gain=2x(0.3%*0.5-1%*0.5+1%)=1.3%. ES dropped about 0.9%.

No positions for Thursday, May 7. Holding cash.

Oh boys, the portfolio is already up 4.35% this week.
 
Junkou said:
The max loss in modelling going back to 1998 is 9.8% in one month (no leverage).
The max loss in trading since 2018 is 1.9% in a day (no leverage). Max drawdown is 2.4% (lost 1.2% in each of two consecutive days).
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so 9.8% of the total Margin applied or % of total notional? and do you get cross margin benefits?
 
Junkou said:
Bang bang, MNQ is up 0.3%, while MYM and M2K both fell 1%.

Today's gain=2x(0.3%*0.5-1%*0.5+1%)=1.3%. ES dropped about 0.9%.

No positions for Thursday, May 7. Holding cash.

Oh boys, the portfolio is already up 4.35% this week.
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What is the diff between straight MNQ/MYM ratio and doing 1MNQ/0.5 MYM and 0.5 M2K? RATIO
 
Anyone know about IB's SpreadTrader? Do I still pay double the commission for the two legs spread trading? Also, how about margin? Does IB provide reduced margin for spread trading? For example, for /NG calendar spread trading, my broker AMP charges $3500 ($1750 x 2) for the margin while CME's margin requirement is only $500. Is IB different?
 
when you say you don't use leverage I am assuming you are putting up full overnight margin for each leg? is that correct? because the product itself comes with inbuilt leverage
So how much your broker requires in the case of 2 MNQ/ 3MYM and then the drawdown loss is the $ of that margin or % of the full notional that is $35000 each leg x2 = %70000
(not asking for your trading secret of when to go long and when to go short but just trying to clarify the entire risk reward capital scenario)
 
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