Fully automated futures trading

Multi variables can be simple if you stick to a linear framework. Another variable is like another rule.

The important distinction is that you don't have to fit a simple rules, instead just allocate trading capital to each rule. As I've said before, I think this is a more robust approach which is less prone to overfitting.

GAT
 
The current way how @globalarbtrader and others on this thread implement momentum is by looking at the Donchian channel and calculating the position of the current price within this channel. That is used as momentum signal. This is repeated for various lookback periods and a weighted average is calculated.
I'm not sure how Sharpe ratio could be added to this calculation.

That's news to me! I had to google "Donchian channel". It looks like my breakout rule so I guess that's what you're referring to. To be clear my breakout rule is just one of 4 different ways I implement momentum. Most of these are based on moving averages.

GAT
 
I had to google "Donchian channel". It looks like my breakout rule so I guess that's what you're referring to.
I was indeed referring to the breakout rule. Where did I learn about it being known as Donchian channel? I believe it was on your blog, where you describe it and then a reply was posted by somebody else who mentioned this name.
 
Current positions

Code:
       code contractid  position
1       AUD     202003        -2
17     CORN     202012        -5
3       EUR     202003        -3
2   EUROSTX     202003        -6
12   GAS_US     202005        -2
9       JPY     202003        -3
8   LEANHOG     202006        -1
10  LIVECOW     202010        -2
13      NZD     202003        -1
18  SOYBEAN     202011        -5
15      V2X     202004        -7
16      VIX     202004        -1
19    WHEAT     202012        -1

5      BOBL     202003         1
4      BUND     202003         1
6   EDOLLAR     202212         1
7   EDOLLAR     202303         7
0       KR3     202003         2
11      MXP     202003         7
14      OAT     202006         1

GAT
 
I was indeed referring to the breakout rule. Where did I learn about it being known as Donchian channel? I believe it was on your blog, where you describe it and then a reply was posted by somebody else who mentioned this name.

That sounds plausible. I try not to clutter up my brain with silly 'TA' names. This leads to frequent embarrasment when some MTA type person asks me whether I use 'wibbly wobbly pattern lines', and I have to confess I don't know what they are, which makes me look like a complete amateur.

GAT
 
Current positions

Code:
       code contractid  position
1       AUD     202003        -2
17     CORN     202012        -5
3       EUR     202003        -3
2   EUROSTX     202003        -6
12   GAS_US     202005        -2
9       JPY     202003        -3
8   LEANHOG     202006        -1
10  LIVECOW     202010        -2
13      NZD     202003        -1
18  SOYBEAN     202011        -5
15      V2X     202004        -7
16      VIX     202004        -1
19    WHEAT     202012        -1

5      BOBL     202003         1
4      BUND     202003         1
6   EDOLLAR     202212         1
7   EDOLLAR     202303         7
0       KR3     202003         2
11      MXP     202003         7
14      OAT     202006         1

GAT
Weirdly, I am also long 7 cts in MXP, and therefore truly fearless. I am also in 4.5% drawdown (6.5 pct if you exclude the discretionary structured equity short)
 
I'm up 3.5% for the day, but still in 3.3% drawdown overall.
I did cheat tho, I couldn't look at that MXP long anymore, so I sold that yesterday. In hindsight, it was a good call (at least for now) as it continues to go down, but I know I shouldn't be doing this.
So I'm looking at things I can do to not do that going forward, either come up with a mechanical rule and have the system exit (not ideal as well), have less size in contracts like that or just trust the system :)
I've only been running this for a month, so this is great learning experience for me.
 
Does anybody else still have forecast for MXP to be long or am I doing something wrong? The trend has clearly ended but my overall forecast is still 8.5 (I use same numbers as Rob, average +10/-10, cap at +20/-20). Most of it is from carry, which is 22 uncapped.
yep, already lost 6k on that thing and still stubbornly long 4 contracts (I don't know why I'm doing it to myself... :) )
 
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