fortes fortuna juvat

[stepan7]

Salmon Nation !!

Here's a couple of debriefs,...

View attachment 173508 View attachment 173508 View attachment 173509

"I wasn't interested in doubling my money, but in his saying that Burlington was going up. If it was, my note-book ought to show it. I looked. Sure enough, Burlington, according to my figuring, was acting as it usually did before it went up. I had never bought or sold anything in my life, and I never gambled with the other boys. But all I could see was that this was a grand chance to test the accuracy of my work, of my hobby. It struck me at once that if my dope didn't work in practice there was nothing in the theory of it to interest anybody. So I gave him all I had, and with our pooled resources he went to one of the nearby bucket shops and bought some Burlington. Two days later we cashed in. I made a profit of $3.12."

"It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation."

"I have heard of people who amuse themselves conducting imaginary operations in the stock market to prove with imaginary dollars how right they are. Sometimes these ghost gamblers make millions. It is very easy to be a plunger that way. It is like the old story of the man who was going to fight a duel the next day.

His second asked him, "Are you a good shot?"

"Well," said the duelist, "I can snap the stem of a wineglass at twenty paces," and he looked modest.

"That's all very well," said the unimpressed second. "But can you snap the stem of the wineglass while the wineglass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?"

With me I must back my opinions with my money."​

 

[unitrader1]

I am wondering why you so obsessed with this Modrian Table?

It's nothing more than Jack's attempt to standardize tapes and traverses in his pursuit to put everything in RDBMS. IMHO.

In old model JHM 1.0 we have Channel started from Point 1 to FTT. The FTT is Point 1 of new Channel opposite direction.

The Channel(JHM 1.0) we trade from Point 1 to FTT with legs Point 1- Point 2 - Dominant, Point 2 - Point 3 - None-Dominant and Point 3 - FTT - Dominant.

The Channel(JHM 1.0) now called trend type C (JHM 2.0).

Trend type C contain Band A - Band B - Band A aka P1-T1-P2-T2P-T2F on Volume pane.

But that is ideal situation. Everybody knows: "Anything Can Happen".

And now Jack has Modrian Table were he is trying standardize the thing called "Anything Can Happen" - C-C, C-A-C, C-A-B-C, C-A-B-A-B-C.

I wonder why it's only four - could be more then that.

Stepan,

I’m not obsessed with Modrian table and EEs. I’m obsessed with logical background behind JHM. I understand it for version 1.0. I still cannot monitor gaussians on time based charts (5 min or 2 min or 30 min etc), but I’ve solved this issue for myself using constant volume bars and monitor price action as multi-legged zigzag. Full cycle should be at least 2-legged: X2X2Y2X where X is R or B. There can be more legs of course and on constant volume chart it is visible and there are no gaussians by definition. So I understand how to monitor and how to analyze. X2X2Y2X2Y2X… is complete system of segmentation the price and volume action.

Let’s move to JHM 2.0. For example, pre preliminary EEs. Jack postulated 6 PPs. Why there are 6, not 3 or 12? Six PPs do not describe any price action which can happen with 3 bars. Why Jack selected namely very specific 6 cases and ignored other? To me it is critical question. I do not understand it. The same situation with other EEs. Why Jack called 35 EEs ‘COMPLETE system of market operations’? He postulated completeness but never proved it. Before discussing Modrian table can you explain why 35 EEs is COMPLETE system?

 

[Sprout]

Stepan,

I’m not obsessed with Modrian table and EEs. I’m obsessed with logical background behind JHM. I understand it for version 1.0. I still cannot monitor gaussians on time based charts (5 min or 2 min or 30 min etc), but I’ve solved this issue for myself using constant volume bars and monitor price action as multi-legged zigzag. Full cycle should be at least 2-legged: X2X2Y2X where X is R or B. There can be more legs of course and on constant volume chart it is visible and there are no gaussians by definition. So I understand how to monitor and how to analyze. X2X2Y2X2Y2X… is complete system of segmentation the price and volume action.

Let’s move to JHM 2.0. For example, pre preliminary EEs. Jack postulated 6 PPs. Why there are 6, not 3 or 12? Six PPs do not describe any price action which can happen with 3 bars. Why Jack selected namely very specific 6 cases and ignored other? To me it is critical question. I do not understand it. The same situation with other EEs. Why Jack called 35 EEs ‘COMPLETE system of market operations’? He postulated completeness but never proved it. Before discussing Modrian table can you explain why 35 EEs is COMPLETE system?

I'm curious as to what Stepan7 has to say.

Using the PP's table, this is what I've been able to cross-reference thus far.

Starting in lower left corner with the solid blue dot, work through the tree as volume presents. The orange dash double dot line is a neutral reference point at the start of every bar. It represents the height of the previous bar.

As one starts at the blue dot, the volume of the current bar will be either be a P1 or T1. We can assign this P1 provided that an End Effect was witnessed in the prior bar or shortly before.

If we travel up to the third P1 it either has enough acceleration to form the third P1 required for the PP1 or run out of momentum as Price forms an inside bar, and volume deaccelerates. The other branches play out to incr or decr volume as well.

The PP1 and PP6 are the ends. They represent the two extremes of accelerated trends. The other PP's describe the middle. We have incr, decr, with just two bars. With three bars we now have

V.2>V.1>V
V.2>V.1<V and V.2<V
V.2>V.1<V and V.2>V
V.2<V.1<V
V.2<V.1>V and V.2>V
V.2<V.1>V and V.2<V

or the Six Primary forms that 3 different sized volume bars can take.

The tree represents the possibilities that exist or do not exist depending on what came before. The PP's with purple brackets represent OB's where the volume move presented both a HH and LL price case.

The Labels within Purple boxes have yet to be placed correctly.

The Blue dotted lines represent a shift in context not necessarily a direct relationship.

 

[Sprout]

"I wasn't interested in doubling my money, but in his saying that Burlington was going up. If it was, my note-book ought to show it. I looked. Sure enough, Burlington, according to my figuring, was acting as it usually did before it went up. I had never bought or sold anything in my life, and I never gambled with the other boys. But all I could see was that this was a grand chance to test the accuracy of my work, of my hobby. It struck me at once that if my dope didn't work in practice there was nothing in the theory of it to interest anybody. So I gave him all I had, and with our pooled resources he went to one of the nearby bucket shops and bought some Burlington. Two days later we cashed in. I made a profit of $3.12."

"It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation."

"I have heard of people who amuse themselves conducting imaginary operations in the stock market to prove with imaginary dollars how right they are. Sometimes these ghost gamblers make millions. It is very easy to be a plunger that way. It is like the old story of the man who was going to fight a duel the next day.

His second asked him, "Are you a good shot?"

"Well," said the duelist, "I can snap the stem of a wineglass at twenty paces," and he looked modest.

"That's all very well," said the unimpressed second. "But can you snap the stem of the wineglass while the wineglass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?"

With me I must back my opinions with my money."​

It'll be a great day to carve Hershey turns throughout the day the Hershey way running 50 contracts !!

But there's a lot of work to do until then. I recently became more motivated to post, preferring to do work in private and applying "purposeful learning". However, links that used to show up on Google searches are starting to dry up. The ET search function also seems to be showing fewer threads. I've been able to get the answers to all my questions through diligent searching, reading the various epic threads I've been able to come across, doing the drills and more importantly, logging and annotating consistently in realtime.
I feel fortunate for stumbling across Jack's writings and working diligently to enhance my understanding of them. It took a while to do the three-ring binder thing. Now it's paying off in spades.

The quotes you posted in response to a drill Jack advocates is a healthy reminder and a valid check for hubris. He repeatedly spoke of receiving the market's full offer. Everything that I've pieced together was left by him in a purposeful way. Everything interlocks. It's just really beautiful when it comes down to it.

 

[baro-san]

I'm curious as to what Stepan7 has to say.

Using the PP's table, this is what I've been able to cross-reference thus far. ...

Jack would've enjoyed replying to you

 

[Sprout]

Jack would've enjoyed replying to you

Baro-san !! I feel moved. Thank you so much for your kind words !!

I appreciate your posts over the years in the threads I've been studying. I initially joined the forum when Jack was posting but couldn't form a coherent question to the current conversations so I opted to catch up instead. It's quite a lot of catching up to do and its become extremely satisfying as pieces fall in place together.

I feel the best proof of Jack's writings is through self-discovery, just as he advocated.

It's a bit lonely at times though. Experiencing an AHA after many frustrating attempts at understanding a concept is a joy meant to be shared. But after many a eye glazing-over and the relentless onslaught of CW, I'm finding value in de-lurking. I'm open to the possibility that others are having or have had the same experience. I know there are others like me.
Sprouts grow in the darkest of places.

Last night, in contemplating 6 volume forms. I discover for myself that those forms consist of 2 moves and 4 points. (The moves represented by the center row). The points vary in sequence and can take the form of the upper or lower row as one traverses from P to T to P, in other words P 2 T, T 2 P.

 

[stepan7]

I'm curious as to what Stepan7 has to say.

Using the PP's table, this is what I've been able to cross-reference thus far.

Starting in lower left corner with the solid blue dot, work through the tree as volume presents. The orange dash double dot line is a neutral reference point at the start of every bar. It represents the height of the previous bar.

As one starts at the blue dot, the volume of the current bar will be either be a P1 or T1. We can assign this P1 provided that an End Effect was witnessed in the prior bar or shortly before.

If we travel up to the third P1 it either has enough acceleration to form the third P1 required for the PP1 or run out of momentum as Price forms an inside bar, and volume deaccelerates. The other branches play out to incr or decr volume as well.

The PP1 and PP6 are the ends. They represent the two extremes of accelerated trends. The other PP's describe the middle. We have incr, decr, with just two bars. With three bars we now have

V.2>V.1>V
V.2>V.1<V and V.2<V
V.2>V.1<V and V.2>V
V.2<V.1<V
V.2<V.1>V and V.2>V
V.2<V.1>V and V.2<V

or the Six Primary forms that 3 different sized volume bars can take.

The tree represents the possibilities that exist or do not exist depending on what came before. The PP's with purple brackets represent OB's where the volume move presented both a HH and LL price case.

The Labels within Purple boxes have yet to be placed correctly.

The Blue dotted lines represent a shift in context not necessarily a direct relationship.

View attachment 173547 View attachment 173548

"It is a very old thing, this of noting the behavior of a stock and studying its past performances. When I first came to New York there was a broker's office where a Frenchman used to talk about his chart. At first I thought he was a sort of pet freak kept by the firm because they were good-natured. Then I learned that he was a persuasive and most impressive talker. He said that the only thing that didn't lie because it simply couldn't was mathematics. By means of his curves he could forecast market movements. Also he could analyze them, and tell, for instance, why Keene did the right thing in his famous Atchison preferred bull manipulation, and later why he went wrong in his Southern Pacific pool. At various times one or another of the professional traders tried the Frenchman's system and then went back to their old unscientific methods of making a living. Their hit-or-miss system was cheaper, they said. I heard that the Frenchman said Keene admitted that the chart was 100 per cent right but claimed that the method was too slow for practical use in an active market."​

 

[stepan7]

Baro-san !! I feel moved. Thank you so much for your kind words !!

I appreciate your posts over the years in the threads I've been studying. I initially joined the forum when Jack was posting but couldn't form a coherent question to the current conversations so I opted to catch up instead. It's quite a lot of catching up to do and its become extremely satisfying as pieces fall in place together.

I feel the best proof of Jack's writings is through self-discovery, just as he advocated.

It's a bit lonely at times though. Experiencing an AHA after many frustrating attempts at understanding a concept is a joy meant to be shared. But after many a eye glazing-over and the relentless onslaught of CW, I'm finding value in de-lurking. I'm open to the possibility that others are having or have had the same experience. I know there are others like me.
Sprouts grow in the darkest of places.

Last night, in contemplating 6 volume forms. I discover for myself that those forms consist of 2 moves and 4 points. (The moves represented by the center row). The points vary in sequence and can take the form of the upper or lower row as one traverses from P to T to P, in other words P 2 T, T 2 P.

View attachment 173610 View attachment 173611

"Then there was one office where a chart of the daily movement of prices was kept. It showed at a glance just what each stock had done for months. By comparing individual curves with the general market curve and keeping in mind certain rules the customers could tell whether the stock on which they got an unscientific tip to buy was fairly entitled to a rise. They used the chart as a sort of complementary tipster. To-day there are scores of commission houses where you find trading charts. They come ready-made from the offices of statistical experts and include not only stocks but commodities.

I should say that a chart helps those who can read it or rather who can assimilate what they read. The average chart reader, however, is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and peaks and primary and secondary movements are all there is to stock speculation. If he pushes his confidence to its logical limit he is bound to go broke. There is an extremely able man, a former partner of a well-known Stock Exchange house, who is really a trained mathematician. He is a graduate of a famous technical school. He devised charts based upon a very careful and minute study of the behavior of prices in many markets stocks, bonds, grain, cotton, money, and so on. He went back years and years and traced the correlations and seasonal movements oh, everything. He used his charts in his stock trading for years. What he really did was to take advantage of some highly intelligent averaging. They tell me he won regularly until the World War knocked all precedents into a cocked hat. I heard that he and his large following lost millions before they desisted. But not even a world war can keep the stock market from being a bull market when conditions are bullish, or a bear market when conditions are bearish. And all a man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions."​

 

[DB_sezwhat]

Salmon Nation !!

More important than you think.... if you're a ticktrader?

 

[DB_sezwhat]

Spyder was a hack. Only study Jack. Once a ve occurs, you accelerate the channel [ all the extra blue lines after ve are inventions ]. Green channel is valid.