Forex Experience
- Thread starter fxintruder
- Start date
EurUsd:
We added as we said in the quote above 2x-50K around the first pull back level.
We want here to warn that now the pair is heavily sold by the majority of the participants therefore we can have massive short squeezes in case of any bullish event.
EurAud:
The pending was filled we will lock the positions after the likely pullback around 1.4900
I shot you a PM regarding your journal.
Ok, Why entering at these last 3 levels on EurAud :
The 12th Nov candle went looking for liquidity below 1.50 cleaning 1.52-1.50 range and the stops below 1.50. This create a liquidity desert bringing back the price around 1.52 with few buyers mainly techs playing some kind of setup. After that the price moved more or less randomly waiting for a catalyst (like a news event or macro data) inside the rectangular range. We had some speeches from Novotny and Coeure bringing back real money and since then the price is falling, helped by the European ZEW of this morning. We played the breakout confirmation for the first 2 orders and the bull stops below 1.50 for the 3rd.
The 12th Nov candle went looking for liquidity below 1.50 cleaning 1.52-1.50 range and the stops below 1.50. This create a liquidity desert bringing back the price around 1.52 with few buyers mainly techs playing some kind of setup. After that the price moved more or less randomly waiting for a catalyst (like a news event or macro data) inside the rectangular range. We had some speeches from Novotny and Coeure bringing back real money and since then the price is falling, helped by the European ZEW of this morning. We played the breakout confirmation for the first 2 orders and the bull stops below 1.50 for the 3rd.
- Keep in mind that a real broker platform doesn't allow to split your positions in the same direction, it averages/aggregate them, and what is important for us is to be positioned on average above 1.5000.
- We are deep in the trade with profits made therefore this kind of intraday price formation analysis is not necessary. Timing is way more important when initiating the trade with no coverage.
- These positions here are linked to our AUD trade, we chose the Euro vs the AUD to help initiate the trade, since we are largely covered on Euro positions.
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On daily char-t you can see that our orders are always concentrated around big End Of Day S/R and rounded numbers mainly when we initiate a new trade. This is where we find big liquidity clusters needed by specs and real money so they can be filled without pushing the price against themselves.
A daily chart is always a better picture.
Forex: About timing :
Look at this picture posted on twitter, was pending at 1.3995 because the KO at 1.40 was too well documented to be taken out (had to enter lower). Spot the price and date on the weekly chart below. Just to say how a big barrier can resist even if the whole world needed liquidity prior to the sell off. The liquidity desert during the ECB sucks out the price swiftly and didn't stop falling til 1.0500. Fearing a massive short squeeze I had a general lock at 1.1400 which was hit after the 1.1100 consolidation.
We had the same kind of opportunity in terms of Global macro drivers on UsdJpy after the first Abenomics. Actually specs started selling the Yen 2 or 3 weeks before his election, largely frontrunning the market consensus.
Look at this picture posted on twitter, was pending at 1.3995 because the KO at 1.40 was too well documented to be taken out (had to enter lower). Spot the price and date on the weekly chart below. Just to say how a big barrier can resist even if the whole world needed liquidity prior to the sell off. The liquidity desert during the ECB sucks out the price swiftly and didn't stop falling til 1.0500. Fearing a massive short squeeze I had a general lock at 1.1400 which was hit after the 1.1100 consolidation.
We had the same kind of opportunity in terms of Global macro drivers on UsdJpy after the first Abenomics. Actually specs started selling the Yen 2 or 3 weeks before his election, largely frontrunning the market consensus.
GbpUsd:
Added -50K and pending -50K at 1.5240
This is tricky since no clear consensus on GBP direction. Here we are driven by the USD rather than the GBP.
The risk is always way bigger when initiating a trade. Since the pair is probably going to continue ranging, 25K increments in the upper range are more suited to the current risk.
Tomorrow we have important data in the morning GMT. We will probably get rid of the lower position before then and add pending limit sells above 1.5250.
We also have to keep an eye on the FOMC minutes this evening.
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EurUsd:
As we said adding on second Maroon line pull back -50K at 1.0630. Pending -50k at 1.0646
We will assist at some heavy positioning prior to the FOMC minutes release. Careful with your stops.