Forex Experience

[fxintruder]

AUD Trade.

+75K on AudUsd, this one is clearly front running the market.

We are raising the size not to be heavier but to use fewer positions to stay averaged higher. Tricky one. We are changing USD direction here for the first time clearly before consensus. We insure this position with the 3 remaining on GBPUSD.

 

[fxintruder]

EurUsd:

As we said above we locked the positions between 1.0700 and 1.08000 (dashed line is an alarm) helped as expected by Draghi speech this morning.

We are very badly positioned on the lower range (1.07-1.06). The 3 positions below 1.0650 are dangerous and can generate quickly significant drawdown. That's why we are ready to take profit from those in the range above the dashed line.

What are the current risk:

1. Some significant real money players (banks) are now thinking that the USD has bottomed since the Fed cut is priced in and the pace of tightening during 2016 will be slow (according to the Fed). This means that the USD can be capped on the upside, fortunately the Euro is capped on the upside too.
2. Massive repositioning as explained in the quote above.

What to do:
We are going to pay for the risk we are taking (the lock) and our strategy here is to hold the lower positions until the 3rd Dec. We think that market will reposition around our target before that date in "sell the rumor buy the fact" (or vice versa) scenario play. As we said the move will be helped by the liquidity below 1.050 acting as a magnet. This liquidity is needed by heavy long term shorts to liquidate without pushing the price higher against themselves while closing.
3rd Dec is going to be the main focus in one week from now (look at an econ calendar).

View attachment 159452

EURO Trade

EurJpy:

We added -50K to our EurUsd companion at 131.096, we already made several TP on this one.

Here we are just adding to the 3rd December play we talked about in the quote.

 

[fxintruder]

FOREX Have a good Week End.

 

[fxintruder]

​

In this Journal we trade Forex Spot through a retail broker on a MT4 platform to replicate retail traders conditions. Forex Experience is for active traders and is way more time consuming than Trading Stocks Experience . Its return grows slowly at the beginning but it hugely accelerates during the last Months of the Experience. It is very imperative, if you want to understand Forex to virtually mirror the trades. We chose $10k as initial capital so you can proportionally scale your position easily. Being over exposed will undermine the integrated risk control of the Experience, being underexposed will compromise its growth power. The goal of Forex Experience is that you trade successfully by your own. Make sure you understand the explanations given during the trades and study on the web or in books those you don't.​

HERE IS THE TABLE OF ALL CLOSED POSITIONS

HERE ARE THE OPENED POSITIONS IN PIPS (Points)

​

This Journal will stop on Dec 31st, its purpose is to show you that a retail trader can be consistently successful so you keep working, but probably not the way you were taught.
There's no miracle no holly grail , 99% of traders are unsuccessful because they understand financial markets through technical and fundamental analysis not by making money. We are not talking here about hedge funds or banks traders, overhedged and mega capitalized. We are talking about independent retail traders undercapitalized and with no access to expensive helpers.
The learning curve is steep, start by asking those who talk about trading, to open positions, in front of you and to explain why, to close them in front of you and explain why then repeat. You will see that 99% of them are delusional. You will see that the remaining 1% have something in common, they know almost everything about market dynamics, they are well informed and know how to filter information and they are not adrenalin driven or subject to psycho unstability. They all share the same mindset, a unique mindset you have to acquire.
Sorry for this this Guru mode, anyway you don't want a Guru.

​

 

[JB3]

Very Impressive.

 

[fxintruder]

GbpUsd :

TP the 3 lower positions to limit risk exposure to USD seen as loosing steam.
More on this later.

View attachment 159455

View attachment 159456

GbpUsd

We locked lower and added -100k . Our pending limit at 1.5163 was not filled. We expect some pull back at 1.5116 where we will add. Be cautious cable is a crazy horse. Our incentives are more clear now, though we anticipate some heavy repositioning when the EurUsd will reach 1.05-1.04.

 

[fxintruder]

EurUsd:

As we said above we locked the positions between 1.0700 and 1.08000 (dashed line is an alarm) helped as expected by Draghi speech this morning.

We are very badly positioned on the lower range (1.07-1.06). The 3 positions below 1.0650 are dangerous and can generate quickly significant drawdown. That's why we are ready to take profit from those in the range above the dashed line.

What are the current risk:

1. Some significant real money players (banks) are now thinking that the USD has bottomed since the Fed cut is priced in and the pace of tightening during 2016 will be slow (according to the Fed). This means that the USD can be capped on the upside, fortunately the Euro is capped on the upside too.
2. Massive repositioning as explained in the quote above.

What to do:
We are going to pay for the risk we are taking (the lock) and our strategy here is to hold the lower positions until the 3rd Dec. We think that market will reposition around our target before that date in "sell the rumor buy the fact" (or vice versa) scenario play. As we said the move will be helped by the liquidity below 1.050 acting as a magnet. This liquidity is needed by heavy long term shorts to liquidate without pushing the price higher against themselves while closing.
3rd Dec is going to be the main focus in one week from now (look at an econ calendar).

View attachment 159452

EurUsd.

We are now locking the 3 lower positions.
We don't like the current nervousness among market consensus about USD; like whether it has peaked or not. Our 2 lower positions are vulnerable and can be hit during intraday liquidity search. Note that we moved the lock after this morning PMI's and BUBA speech and we didn't add.
We still maintain our Dec3rd scenario.

 

[fxintruder]

AUD Trade.

+75K on AudUsd, this one is clearly front running the market.

We are raising the size not to be heavier but to use fewer positions to stay averaged higher. Tricky one. We are changing USD direction here for the first time clearly before consensus. We insure this position with the 3 remaining on GBPUSD.

View attachment 159458

AudUsd:

By mistake we sold in place of buying. We are long +2x50K now at 0.7183 and 0.7200.

This was a mess, our long which was an accidental short made some pips we close it and reenter in the direction we intended to.

 

[fxintruder]

GbpUsd

We locked lower and added -100k . Our pending limit at 1.5163 was not filled. We expect some pull back at 1.5116 where we will add. Be cautious cable is a crazy horse. Our incentives are more clear now, though we anticipate some heavy repositioning when the EurUsd will reach 1.05-1.04.

View attachment 159521

GbpUsd

Lock of the 3 Upper positions moved to 1.5192

 

[fxintruder]

EurUsd.

We are now locking the 3 lower positions.
We don't like the current nervousness among market consensus about USD; like whether it has peaked or not. Our 2 lower positions are vulnerable and can be hit during intraday liquidity search. Note that we moved the lock after this morning PMI's and BUBA speech and we didn't add.
We still maintain our Dec3rd scenario.

View attachment 159523

EurUsd:
Our Target is looming. We added -100k

The pips we made with our previous lock allow us to enter before 1.06 is breached. If the previous intraday low is crossed we will add on pull back. What's important here is how on intraday we protected our 3 lower positions just before the push that could have triggered a second Squeeze. A second squeeze is generally stronger because the resistances have been taken out by the first squeeze.