For the retards who claim only realised profits count
- Thread starter luisHK
- Start date
long and short mostly single stocks, some volatile, across a bunch of markets - but significantly net long. Still positive enough to foot the holidays bill month to date but today was painful.
Most of the realized gain came from covering a short DD position while mtm my account got hammered. Which reminded me of a poster here who claimed taking into account unrealized gains/losses made no sense.
Most of the realized gain came from covering a short DD position while mtm my account got hammered. Which reminded me of a poster here who claimed taking into account unrealized gains/losses made no sense.
SPX is looking sickly, should be the low now, and I'd expect to see a medium rally, up to between 2072 and 2088.
DE30 is looking healthier, looks like a medium term low at around 10,950. Rally up to 11,300 is a possibility. Still we're going to want to retest these lows, and you won't want to be there while that's happening.
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from my philosphy of markets unrealized profits are not real but unrealized losses are real.
I don't know what you have in your account but even in conservative case I believe market will go down 5% lower than today. If you have stocks, sell ITM covered calls and sell those you have made money. The worst feeling is that when you turn a profit to loss. That is worse than letting a losing position to go down more.
Zdreg, exiting a position is costly, more so with illiquid stocks, but minus that cost unrealized gains are as real as unrealized losses imo. Fund performances and margin requirements definitely take into account mtm rather than realized performance. I also have reverse days where I may realize 100k loss when seeing much higher unrealized gains and they are much sweeter on the yearly results.
Hajimow, my trading does change with time but nowadays I try to stick to a fixed net long percentage of my liquid net worth rather than try to time the market, than add leverage on high conviction trades. But I do move quite a bit among markets, sectors, company size and volatility. I'd rather not see the US market go down 5% but will probably ride it if it happens. In Europe or HK 5% moves over several days are common (fdax lost 4.5% today btw).
Besides I'm not particulary bearish on the market, with the presidential election coming up next year in the US the seasonality is quite bullish.
Hajimow, my trading does change with time but nowadays I try to stick to a fixed net long percentage of my liquid net worth rather than try to time the market, than add leverage on high conviction trades. But I do move quite a bit among markets, sectors, company size and volatility. I'd rather not see the US market go down 5% but will probably ride it if it happens. In Europe or HK 5% moves over several days are common (fdax lost 4.5% today btw).
Besides I'm not particulary bearish on the market, with the presidential election coming up next year in the US the seasonality is quite bullish.
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When I get into a trade, before entering my order, I ask lots of questions from myself. For example if I want to buy AAPL now, I ask myself what if I buy it 125 today and tomorrow goes to 90. What will I do? nothing? get out? add to my position? What if it goes to $40? what if it goes to $400? will I sell it? add more? So I am prepared. I have lost from impossible cases. I am a Bre-X Mineral veteran. Those who have been in the market long enough know what I am talking about. A stock that was supposed to be added to DOW evaporated overnight. So DOW dropping 5% is really nothing and can really happen. Just be prepared. Knowing that it might happen and the fact that you will do nothing is a kind of being prepared.To be honest DOW can go to 15500 and it would be quite normal. Just imagine AAPL at 115, MCD at 88, INTC at 27. Is that situation a disaster? NO. I did not say INTC at $15 or AAPL at $55. Those numbers are quite probable.
The lower limit of the SPX weekly channel is 2000. FYI.
I doubt if we can get so low, so soon, although it's on the cards for later. I'm expecting a rally tomorrow.