Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 32%, SS – 5% /
Without any help from the cot extreme picture (more or less neutral), we can only use the signal coming from the large change in Traders positions to help us in our trading decision. The signal is bullish, may affect prices early this week.

Cotton
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme widened further, which means that the chances of prices turning down is increasing.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C – 254, LS – 721 report COT extreme /
LS and C are definitely backing a higher prices are coming thesis, but it would be so nice if SS were also heavily pessimistic on Cocoa

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 44% /
A very large cot change signal at a good resistance level. If you thing that the downtrend should continue, this may be a good opportunity to get in.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge All Time cot extreme signal, but caution is advised, the extreme can widen further.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 51 report COT extreme /
If you are considering going long in this market, it’s good to know that the cot report is backing the trade.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 26% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – 134 report COT extreme /
The cot change signal may have come a bit late, but with the cot extreme picture supporting a decline, we may still consider the opportunity arising in this market.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Here we have an easily readable situation, the picture is crystal clear. Maybe not right away, but going short sometime in the near future may look like a reasonable decision.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / LS – 527 report COT extreme /
LS have not been so bullish in Natural gas for approximately 10 years. Although not an all time cot extreme, but still pretty significant not to take a closer look at.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 31% /
Large bullish cot change signal (largest in the last 52 weeks) which could easily halt the decline in prices. Longer term picture? Last major extreme was bearish (last report), so we could see further decrease in prices.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further price increase expected in this market!

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme signal is very obvious, but caution is advised: prices can continue their rise for a couple more weeks (or even months) and the extreme will most certainly become even larger.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[themickey]

Thanks for that Dunstan.
You gave me an idea to do research on cattle stocks.
http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a...beef-stocks-that-might-be-worth-the-risk.html
Appreciated

 

[Dunstan]

Thanks for that Dunstan.
You gave me an idea to do research on cattle stocks.
http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a...beef-stocks-that-might-be-worth-the-risk.html
Appreciated

You are more than welcome

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS – 46% /
The large change in traders positions is a bearish signal for us, but it is important to see the bigger picture. The last major extreme was an unquestionable bullish cot extreme signal and it is obvious that price have gone higher since. There is a long way to go to reach bearish extreme levels, so I would think that prices can go lower, but the main signal to follow is still the bullish extreme!

Canadian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 33% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Wow, what a bullish situation in the Canadian Dollar! Both of our main cot signals are very bullish: large change in Traders positions AND an All Time cot extreme! Does anyone need more than that??

Platinum
COT Extreme / C - 405, LS – 406 report COT extreme /
Very large bullish extreme here with possibly a good risk/reward trade opportunity due to the fact of close support levels.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Australian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /
Both cot signals are bullish: we had a large change in Traders positions (this may have come a bit late / prices have already been rising the past week) and we have reached a relative bullish extreme.

Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 17% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels have never been as high as they are now, we should expect prices to fall in the next couple of months.

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Have we reached a bottom? Last week prices have gone higher. If they can finish this week with the same result, we can speculate that the cot extreme signal has taken its effect.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 15%, SS – 13% /
Bearish cot change signal this week, but the cot extreme signal is still further away from any significant bearish level, so this means that we can expect a little decline early this week, but in the medium time frame (a few weeks), we should see higher prices.

Euro
COT Extreme / C, LS, SS – 316 report COT extreme /
Huge bearish cot extreme signal (have not seen this level in the market for over 6 years now) at a very nice place (resistance levels close).

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – 147 report COT extreme /
A pretty significant bearish cot extreme signal suggesting that prices will head back on track, which is downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 19%, SS – 30% /
COT Extreme / C - 60, LS – 56 report COT extreme /
Both of our main cot signals are indicating a price movement upwards.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Here we have an unquestionable large cot extreme signal (all time large) that is telling us prices may not continue their rally for too long.

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 317 report COT extreme /
Prices fell last week --> does this mean we have reached a top? The cot report definitely supports a move downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts