Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 37%, SS – 53% /
Both of our main cot signals are bearish. We have a huge cot change signal (largest in the past 52 weeks) and we have reached a significant cot extreme level also. Of course caution is advised, these extremes can become much larger, but nevertheless, we have a bearish picture from the report.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 435 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

Lumber
COT Extreme / C – 164, LS – 166 report COT extreme /
Not an all time cot extreme like in Sugar, but still significant showing us that the rally may be over soon…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

Sorry for being away for so long… I’m back again

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 23%, SS – 47% /
Having a more or less neutral cot extreme picture in the market it is only the change signal (which is bearish) that we can act on if have to. Although it is large and visible, I would only take it into consideration if besides cot analysis my view would be bearish.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear and obvious, but in case of indexes, the “correlation factor” should not be neglected. It is very important to have a look at other markets as well, such as Nasdaq, Dow and the S&P-500.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Another all time cot extreme signal, now in a currency. Currencies react well to cot signals, so we can expect the GBP to move higher on this bullish signal, but (!) don’t forget that these all time cot extreme can be in the market for many weeks before anything happens.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Feeder Cattle
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 22%, SS – 8% /
The trend in FC is still bearish. We have had a bit of a rise in prices in recent weeks after the cot report was showing a bullish cot extreme, but now we have this large cot change signal that support price actions in the direction of the main trend.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week it was only S&P-400, but now we have S&P-500 following. This just further supports the fact that stress levels in indexes are rising rapidly.

British Pound
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time cot extreme is still present, stress levels are rising. As I have said it last week, this picture may stay the same for many weeks or even months before we see a reaction in price.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 31%, SS – 26% /
Although the cot change signal indicates that prices could jump up now, because of the strength of the bearish cot extreme that we had, I think we should be cautious with any buying now.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture did not change from last week, let’s be patient!

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The third index to have all time cot extreme in Large speculators positions. This definitely strengthens the cot extreme signal in general for indexes as a whole.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 46%, SS – 1% /
The change in traders positions was huge! This could mean that the dollar index will fall a bit beginning of this week. The cot extreme does not show too much. I would say that it supports the continuation of the rise.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C,LS – 189 report COT extreme /
We have a very clear bearish cot extreme signal, but caution is advised, since we can easily see further increases in stress levels before the actual top comes.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C - 116, LS – 117 report COT extreme /
Similarly to Heating Oil (of course not unexpectedly due to the natural correlation between these markets), we have a bearish cot extreme that is large enough to be taken into consideration in our trading.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 29%, SS – 5% /
Bullish cot change signal and a relatively bullish extreme in the market, so we can state that the cot report definitely supports higher prices.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 1370 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is crystal clear: we have an all time bearish cot extreme --> expect a top soon.

Nasdaq-100
COT Extreme / C – 619 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
A very large bearish cot extreme here, but before any sudden moves, I advise you to check the other indexes as well.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 30%, SS – 8% /
We have a 30% bearish cot change signal – I wouldn’t act on it – and a cot extreme picture showing bullishness… I’d step aside from this market for now.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Although we’ve got an all time cot extreme, I’m not that confident that cotton will change it’s path for now. I will wait for further increase in the stress level.

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time cot extreme in all major participants positions, but trading indexes these days is risky business.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[ironchef]

How about the latest Crude Oil?

 

[Dunstan]

How about the latest Crude Oil?

Hi,

About a month ago we had a relative bearish extreme in the report. Since then, we have experienced a drop in prices. The report is in a neutral zone now, so there is not much info it can serve us with I'm afraid.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS – 28%, SS – 34% /
I’m still on the sidelines here…

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last report.

Copper
COT Extreme / C – 681 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge, all time cot extreme here that developed very fast. I think this is a good signal that we can act upon.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts