Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 39%, LS – 35%, SS – 13% /
COT Change signal large, maybe considered in trading decision, but the extreme can grow further, I would not act on it. To be more clear --> in the near term we can expect a decline (bearish cot change signal) but the extreme has not yet reached a level where I couldn’t see further increases.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last report.

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels at record highs so we can expect the market to react. Caution is advised due to the nature of indexes.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS – 17%, SS – 11% /
If you look at the 5 years long chart, you can see that maybe, just maybe the bullish cot extreme that has been present in the market for many many months now is taking an effect on Wheat. I can imagine that we might have reached a bottom and we will see further increases in prices, but the cot change signal that we got now suggests a bit of a reaction downwards.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Since the last major bullish cot extreme, prices have gone dynamically higher. The recent report shows us that Traders have gone from their most bullish extreme levels to their most bearish extreme. We may have reached a top!

S&P-400
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels at record highs, but what do the other indexes show? Because of the significant correlation between indexes, such signals should be dealt with caution.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[fordewind]

The resource that you use is very lagging.Is it released or reported data?

 

[Dunstan]

The resource that you use is very lagging.Is it released or reported data?

Hi,

The COT report is a report published by CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission). It is a weekly report that is issued every Friday.

from CFTC: "The Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC." So the report issued on Friday shows Tuesday's situation.

COT Analysis is a great tool, but mainly for swing traders, long term traders.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat (Chicago)
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 37%, SS – 36% /
Prices have not gone much higher since the first report came out, and we’ve just received another bearish cot change signal, this time an even greater one. Traders are dynamically moving the market towards it’s bearish extreme. Although in the long run, I am expecting much higher prices to come, there may be a reaction in the market.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture here seems to be pretty obvious: we have an all time cot extreme in the market, so we should be prepared for a change in the trend.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / LS – 236 report COT extreme /
The last time Large specs were net short, price of Cocoa was at a bottom. Although the extreme can further widen, become larger, I think that this opportunity should be carefully analyzed.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Covertibility]

Check out treasuries. Last year the Commercials were super heavy on the short side at the 30 year's top and now they're heavy on the long side on the 10 year.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 22%, SS – 42% /
After a dynamic increase in prices during the last two weeks, we shouldn’t be surprised to see such a sudden change in Traders positions. The signal of course is bearish, but the cot extreme shows us that we can reach even higher prices the next couple of weeks, months.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C – 133 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge bearish cot extreme signal. Will this mean a top? The last time we were at such extreme levels, prices started to fall. Caution is advised: it would be too simple to expect history to repeat itself exactly the same way. I would be prepared for further increases.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Have a look at other indexes before entering short just because we got an all time cot extreme signal here.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 21% /
Cot change signal indicating that prices may drop early this week, but the wider picture (last major cot extreme being bullish) shows that prices could easily continue their rally.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 21% /
Bullish cot change signal, but coming a bit late, prices have already jumped higher. The cot extreme is not that clear either, so I’d rather stay out of this market for now.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C - 243, LS – 657 report COT extreme /
Holly Sh*t! Now that is serious decline… Although we have got this very large COT extreme signal (bullish of course), we need to be careful: this extreme can easily become even larger the next couple of weeks, before we reach a bottom. Nevertheless, it is a great market that is providing us with trading opportunities, so let’s keep an eye on Cocoa!

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – 112 report COT extreme /
Bearish cot extreme here. I wouldn’t jump in here, but if you are a regular LC trader than it’s good to know that the cot report supports lower prices for now.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 32%, SS – 21% /
Large bearish cot change signal and I think we have a relatively good bearish extreme as well (77 report extreme) that could signal further decline in Wheat. On the long run, I’d be more careful, since there has been a significant bullish extreme in the market for a pretty long time.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Are prices able to go any higher? The cot report suggests that the answer to this question is: NO! But since we are talking about Crude Oil and we know that all time cot extremes can stay in a market for many weeks, we should be careful.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme signal is clear, we may expect lower prices coming here.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts