Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 43% /
Generally speaking, the picture looks bullish, but we have got a bearish cot change signal and it seems that price were unable to stop declining even though we has a major cot extreme signal. We may need to wait a few more weeks and possibly a clearer cot signal.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C - 311, LS – 799 report COT extreme /
We have a close to all time cot extreme in this market, yet prices are dynamically falling. This set up is always hard, but nevertheless it seems to be good trade! We may just need to be more patient.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C - 96, LS – 96 report COT extreme /
Last week we saw a strong Thursday and Friday… are we over the bottom? Stay tuned, this market has great potential!


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS – 33%, SS – 31% /
We have a larger cot change then average, but hey (!), look at the larger picture: we are not far off from a huge bullish cot extreme. Prices are just simply reacting to that. It’s possible to see a bit of a decline in the next few days, a bit of a rebound, but I’d focus on the larger picture.

Lumber
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I LOVE THESE SCENARIOS! Do I need to say anything here?! Come on… It is soooo obvious

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / LS - 115, SS – 114 report COT extreme /
Large bullish cot extreme in the market suggesting higher prices coming. Caution for two reasons: Extreme has plenty of space to widen + dynamic decline present.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 39%, LS – 40%, SS – 13% /
We have a bearish cot change signal, but at the same time we are not that far away from a bullish extreme. We could assume a drop in prices in the near future, but on a larger time horizon, to me the picture is bullish.

Lumber
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Well, what can I say… If you were following this thread last week, you shouldn’t be surprised to see Lumber rallying.

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / LS - 116, SS – 116 report COT extreme /
From last week’s price movements in FC, it seems that the relative bullish cot extreme has taken its effect. We may as well be prepared for further increases coming.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Euro
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 26%, SS – 27% /
Bullish cot change signal coming after a rebound in the recent rally. Let’s not forget that the rally was signaled well earlier by the bullish cot extreme in the market. It is still in place / at least we do not have a serious bearish cot extreme signal yet.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 380, LS – 515 report COT extreme /
I’m keeping it short: Bearish cot extreme.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 74, LS - 68, SS – 102 report COT extreme /
Time for selling / exiting longs… at least that is what the recent cot report suggests.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 6%, SS – 53% /
The cot change signal is bearish, could push prices lower the next few days. The larger picture: Small Specs were heavily pessimistic last week, I’d say that is a strong bullish signal. Because of the support levels not far, it may be a good risk/reward trade.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 104, LS - 75, SS – 105 report COT extreme /
Heavily bearish sign from the cot report. Prices were unable to sustain the gains of early last week, this supports the bearish picture.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 39, LS – 59 report COT extreme /
In the past year, we had a rather bullish picture presented in the cot report, but prices continued their decline. The extreme we have at the moment is far away from being able to influence the market, so the decline can easily continue.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 43%, SS – 21% /
Large bullish cot change signal combined with a bullish extreme = Very positive for the market!

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time cot extreme /bullish/ --> says it all: We should expect prices to bottom soon, and start rallying. Caution of course is advised (!) --> the extreme can grow larger, while prices head downwards, so we may need to wait a few more weeks. Keep your eyes open!

Coffee
COT Extreme / C – 104, LS – 104 report COT extreme /
I think the chart gives us a clear picture: Prices are ready to RALLY!!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cocoa
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 33%, SS – 17% /
Both of our main cot signals are bullish. The change was much larger than average, but the extreme is also relatively large. Although prices may continue their decline (the extreme can widen further), a bit of an upwards price reaction could be in place.

Copper
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Large Speculators have never held such large short positions in the past, we do have an all time cot extreme situation, a very large bullish signal. As it is clearly visible on the chart, even if these signals were unable to change the Trend drastically, they did stop the decline temporarily.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C – 188, LS – 187 report COT extreme /
The picture is very similar to what we can see in copper. The cot extreme is huge! Here we can also find Small Specs being very pessimistic about the market and as you can see on the chart, that always signaled the end for a decline.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 15%, SS – 24% /
The last major cot extreme signal was bullish and it is still in place. The larger cot change signal present is also bullish.

Copper
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has widened further since last week. Much has not changed, so we can still state that the picture is very bullish. This of course does not mean that we should jump right in the market, these extremes can exist for many weeks or even months before any price reaction.

Soybean Meal
COT Extreme / C – 213, LS – 571 report COT extreme /
With the exception of Small Specs, who were net short, the picture is very similar to what we had back in 2011. Nevertheless the signal is huge, very bullish. I very much like this market!!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 41%, SS – 19% /
It looks as if prices started to react to bullish cot extreme signal that has been present in the market for some time now. We should not be surprised to see such a larger change in Traders positions. It may influence prices and push them back in the near term, but let’s not forget that the stronger cot signal is the extreme!

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
When we reach and all time cot extreme in a market, there is not too much I can add, the picture is pretty obvious. The only important note I may add is that these extremes can go on for many weeks before price starts to react!

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 52 report COT extreme /
We have a relative bullish cot extreme in the market, but caution is advised: with even greater extremes (second half of 2014 for example) the market may still head downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 36%, SS – 21% /
We have a change in Traders positions that is much larger than average and it is a bearish cot signal. Prices have gone down last week Thursday, so the signal may be a little late for us. The cot extreme is relatively bearish and as you can see on the chart, when it reached these levels the last two times, prices went further down. The longer term picture of course is definitely bullish, we are far away from All Time or close to AT bearish cot extreme leves.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 541, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 421, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts