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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS - 30% /
The last major cot extreme (a couple of reports ago) is in effect in my opinion. The change we’ve got suggests that prices may rally a bit.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme is still present as slowly growing even larger. Prices are unable to further rally, thus it may easily be that we’ve reached a top.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 339 report, LS – 338 report COT extreme /
The extreme is Huge, but as you can see, not All Time yet… I think there’s still space left for the decline.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL OF YOU!!!
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 13%, LS – 12%, SS – 12% /
It’s a difficult situation, because the last major cot extreme is still in place (bullish cot signal that has been able to push prices higher), the change is a bearish signal that may be late a bit (prices have been falling heavily the last couple of days)… Small Speculators may be helpful this time: if you look at them, they are relatively extreme now = very bullish. The last time they were at such levels, prices reached a top.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C – 170 report, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
We’ve got a more clearer picture here: COT extreme is very large, but if you look at a longer (let’s say 15 year) chart, you will find even greater extremes… this means that the rally can go on, but we should be ready for a change in this trend.

British Pound
COT Index / C – 12%, LS – 77%, SS – 94% (!) /
We have reached a bearish cot extreme level in GBP, especially Small Speculators. If you look at the chart, you’ll find how well GBP reacts to cot signals.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS – 21% /
The 21% change in large Trader’s positions is a bearish cot signal that says prices will decline and looking at the chart we might have a sense that it is quite possible. Without a clear cot extreme signal, I would say that it’s the most that we can say now…

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 167 report COT extreme /
Commercials have reached their all time extreme level and Large Speculators aren’t that far from it either… keep watching this interesting market that I believe holds great shorting opportunities.

Copper
COT Extreme / C – 45 report, LS – 46 report COT extreme /
The extreme in copper is becoming pretty large, we may carefully start looking for shorting opportunities…

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
 
Quote from wwatson1:

None of these reports are of any use on there own
More...

I agree with your statement. As I’ve mentioned earlier a couple of times (see for example my post on: 07-26-12), cot analysis is just one tool that in my opinion should be used by many of us. It is a tool that works together with our system. It is a great measurement of stresses in a market, I don’t think there is any question about that. Using it to find trading opportunities or as confirmation tools… that’s the way to look at it – I think.

All the best,
Dunstan
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS – 31%, SS – 21% /
The situation is pretty confusing… Prices were unable to decline further, while the extreme was so large. Now we see Traders moving away from their extremes while the market is back to the rally. I’m unable to draw any conclusions from the cot report right now, the only interesting fact is that Small Speculators are the only ones Long now, both Commercials and Large speculators are Short.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Large Speculators have built up such large net long positions (while Commercials net short) that we haven’t seen in Crude Oil before… It is an unquestionable bearish cot extreme signal that may take prices down soon.

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 20%, SS – 22% /
COT Extreme / C – 124 report, LS – 124 report COT extreme /
The very large changes that we have may be able to slow down the rally a bit, but in the medium/longer term the bullish cot extreme that we had not long ago is influencing the market: the trend has changed, we are in a bull market again.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts
 
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