Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

have, since at least the 2000 Commodity Futures Modernization Act [CFMA] contained more than true commercials but also the Index Funds/Swap Dealers complex,,,which grew qute a bit during that decade as new capital allocation model were put in place and as more money flowed to finance-in-general.

IOW - 'Commercial' is not all that commercial [in the sense of dealing with the physical]
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

This isn't anything like a rout....
More...
=====U=================================


Used to be a commodities rout was sneaky, quick and Large -- then, c 1999-2001 a new capital allocation model gained prominence and commodity markets increasingly financialized, pushing prices far far beyond fundamentals. Finally breaking partially as overdone/poorly grasped structured finance became partially undone from mid-2007 through 2008. [Soly by recollection, notional CDS USD 'value' fell from around 60 Trillion to 25 T - Recall these were largely bespoke, had often been squared or cubed beyond which many quants had fallen in love with gaussian copula centered models]

So much more, but a commodities rout today will be quick and large although also part of a more general Krach.
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 25%, SS – 8% /
The change in commitments of traders report and also the extreme (Commercials net long) both give us bullish signals. When the rally starts, we’re gonna see Commercials go back to deep net short territories.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
After last week’s rally it seem that we may have reached the bottom… if the rally continues this week, we should see market participants move away from their extremes.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is pretty obvious here, we are at or close to the top in prices --> the extreme is huge in Lean Hogs!

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS - 25%, SS – 31% /
The latest cot report is showing us that there were large changes in Trader’s positions. This, combined with the extreme in the market suggests that prices should continue their rise.

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 31%, SS – 11% /
The huge change in Commercials and Large Speculators positions tells us that prices may easily fall a bit, but let’s not forget that a few reports ago, we were at a major cot extreme which signaled the latest bottom and is still in effect.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
Although there was a roll-over in contracts here, it is still obvious that price have declined since last week’s signal… the extreme in this market is supporting the further decline of prices.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS - 28% /
The large change in the latest cot report indicates that prices will rise instead of continuing their decline. The situation in indexes is very exciting, cause we have an extreme or to say: large stresses amongst indexes these days, but I think that (it’s just a feeling:)) we will see an even greater extreme in the next few weeks/months, before prices really reach a top.

Live Cattle
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS - 24%, SS – 11% /
Both of our major cot signals are telling us that prices will fall --> We’ve witnessed another large change in Trader’s positions and as it happened, we’ve reached a relatively larger cot extreme (let’s just open a three year long chart) that is bearish signal.

Cotton
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is a definite extreme in Cotton as we can see and prices have already reacted.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
 
For several years, I hosted a COT forum, compiling the data and posting my own charts.

One day, after being challenged, I forcast with 100% accuracy , the direction of all of the up coming commitments that I tracked ... based on price action.

With a sickening feeling, thinking of all the time that I had wasted, I finally realized that if price forcasts the COT ... how in the world is that going to make you money if you are following the COT?

At best, the COT is a confirmation of something that you already know.
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27% /
The situation is interesting here, because the large change in Trader’s position is suggesting that price should rebound / get back into rally mode, but then again, we’ve just reached a cot extreme level that could easily turn this uptrend into a down trend.

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS - 22%, SS – 15% /
Similarly to S&P, we’ve got the two major cot signals pointing in opposite directions: the change is suggesting that prices will rise, but the extreme is still in place and it is showing us a bearish picture.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme /
The Extreme in Cocoa is pushing prices lower. If Commercials could reach a net short level of <25-20.000 contracts, we&#8217;d get a relative extreme that may push prices to rally mode.

I wish all of you good luck to this week&#8217;s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

EURO
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS - 12%, SS - 27% /
EURO became first on the list in respect to large changes in Commercials positions.. this could mean that prices will rally, but the cot extreme (relative) that is present suggests that prices will continue their fall. It’s not a clear picture…

Cocoa
COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS /
The cot extreme that is present in this market is telling us that prices cannot rally for too long anymore. I agree with it.

5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C-293 report, LS – 179 report, SS – 394 report COT extreme /
The extreme is pretty clear, so we are expecting a bottom to develop soon… of course, looking at longer charts (>10 year), we can find even greater extremes, so if prices continued their decline, we shouldn’t be surprised.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
 
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