Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis
- Thread starter Dunstan
- Start date
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS - 31%, SS - 41% /
Large changes in Traders positions that have a bullish bias, but let’s not forget that the recent cot extreme triggered the down leg which may continue further. Analyzing the Volume and Open interest last week, we can see that it is also a bearish signal.
RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 26%, SS - 22% /
COT Extreme / C – 143 Report, LS – 144 report COT extreme /
Bullish picture supported by the large change in the commitments of traders report and also the cot extreme.
Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a huge COT extreme (All Time) in Copper that is telling us: the decline in prices may be over soon.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS - 31%, SS - 41% /
Large changes in Traders positions that have a bullish bias, but let’s not forget that the recent cot extreme triggered the down leg which may continue further. Analyzing the Volume and Open interest last week, we can see that it is also a bearish signal.
RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 26%, SS - 22% /
COT Extreme / C – 143 Report, LS – 144 report COT extreme /
Bullish picture supported by the large change in the commitments of traders report and also the cot extreme.
Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a huge COT extreme (All Time) in Copper that is telling us: the decline in prices may be over soon.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Oats
COT Change (52W) / C â 34%, LS - 27%, SS â 36% /
The large change in the cot report suggests that prices will rally, but the longer time frame is painting a different picture: there was a pretty large cot extreme last week that may push prices lower.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS â All Time COT extreme /
All Time Extreme still, stress levels are building up. The big question: when can we see prices react to this large extreme or would we witness a rally at all (commercial capitulation).
Gold
COT Extreme / C â 600, LS - 438 report COT extreme /
Stresses are really high in metals these days⦠weâve reached extremes that we havenât seen for over 10 years now!! The pictures is bullish.
I wish all of you good luck to this weekâs trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Oats
COT Change (52W) / C â 34%, LS - 27%, SS â 36% /
The large change in the cot report suggests that prices will rally, but the longer time frame is painting a different picture: there was a pretty large cot extreme last week that may push prices lower.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS â All Time COT extreme /
All Time Extreme still, stress levels are building up. The big question: when can we see prices react to this large extreme or would we witness a rally at all (commercial capitulation).
Gold
COT Extreme / C â 600, LS - 438 report COT extreme /
Stresses are really high in metals these days⦠weâve reached extremes that we havenât seen for over 10 years now!! The pictures is bullish.
I wish all of you good luck to this weekâs trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS - 53% /
It seems that we are witnessing again another large change in traders positions. The last couple of times the signals were affective, so we can expect prices to react to the recent one as well.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C – 121 Report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).
Gold
COT Extreme / C – 601 Report, LS – 439 report COT extreme /
The stress level in Gold is extremely high… we’ve reached levels that we didn’t see for over ten years now. In my opinion, we are looking at an extremely bullish picture.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS - 53% /
It seems that we are witnessing again another large change in traders positions. The last couple of times the signals were affective, so we can expect prices to react to the recent one as well.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C – 121 Report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).
Gold
COT Extreme / C – 601 Report, LS – 439 report COT extreme /
The stress level in Gold is extremely high… we’ve reached levels that we didn’t see for over ten years now. In my opinion, we are looking at an extremely bullish picture.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 26% /
A bit larger change then average, but I don’t think it deserves too much attention. What’s more interesting is that the extreme is again widening, which means the rally is still not over.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C ,LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week’s comment is still in place: “The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).”
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The All Time extreme situation in Australian Dollar has been present for over a month now and it seems that prices are starting to react.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 26% /
A bit larger change then average, but I don’t think it deserves too much attention. What’s more interesting is that the extreme is again widening, which means the rally is still not over.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C ,LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week’s comment is still in place: “The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).”
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The All Time extreme situation in Australian Dollar has been present for over a month now and it seems that prices are starting to react.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
Hi everyone,
Sorry, but it seems that COTbase.com did not post a new Commitments of Traders review this time. Anyhow, I will give you an update as usual
Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C â 25%, LS - 22% /
The change in the cot report was large and suggesting a bearish move --> as we see it today, prices did decline a bit. The longer/wider picture on the other hand is still pretty bullish: Commercials are net long, which in most cases throughout Coffeeâs history happened when prices were low.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS â All Time COT extreme /
Prices seem to support us --> the cot extreme may be in effect, thus we can expect the decline to continue.
Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C, LS â All Time COT extreme /
Commercials and Large Speculators (unfortunately without Small Speculators being in extreme) are at an All Time extreme level in their net positions. This, as we can see in the past is a very bearish signal, so we can expect prices to continue their decline that started roughly two weeks ago.
I wish all of you good luck to this weekâs trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
Sorry, but it seems that COTbase.com did not post a new Commitments of Traders review this time. Anyhow, I will give you an update as usual
Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C â 25%, LS - 22% /
The change in the cot report was large and suggesting a bearish move --> as we see it today, prices did decline a bit. The longer/wider picture on the other hand is still pretty bullish: Commercials are net long, which in most cases throughout Coffeeâs history happened when prices were low.
Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS â All Time COT extreme /
Prices seem to support us --> the cot extreme may be in effect, thus we can expect the decline to continue.
Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C, LS â All Time COT extreme /
Commercials and Large Speculators (unfortunately without Small Speculators being in extreme) are at an All Time extreme level in their net positions. This, as we can see in the past is a very bearish signal, so we can expect prices to continue their decline that started roughly two weeks ago.
I wish all of you good luck to this weekâs trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C â 26%, LS - 22%, SS â 30% /
The change size in recent cot report and the relative extreme that weâre at suggests a bottoming of prices soon. Since we are not at a major extreme level, which would be a clearer signal to act on, we should be careful with a long trade.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS â All Time COT extreme /
All market participants are at All Time or close to All Time extreme levels in their net positions. This means that stress levels are very high in Australian Dollar --> the bubble should burst our sooner or later. Of course the big question is as always: when?
S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS â All Time COT extreme /
The COT Extreme in Indexes is getting larger and larger as prices are moving higher. In my opinion the rally will continue into September and we will get much larger extremes before we reach the top.
I wish all of you good luck to this weekâs trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C â 26%, LS - 22%, SS â 30% /
The change size in recent cot report and the relative extreme that weâre at suggests a bottoming of prices soon. Since we are not at a major extreme level, which would be a clearer signal to act on, we should be careful with a long trade.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS â All Time COT extreme /
All market participants are at All Time or close to All Time extreme levels in their net positions. This means that stress levels are very high in Australian Dollar --> the bubble should burst our sooner or later. Of course the big question is as always: when?
S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS â All Time COT extreme /
The COT Extreme in Indexes is getting larger and larger as prices are moving higher. In my opinion the rally will continue into September and we will get much larger extremes before we reach the top.
I wish all of you good luck to this weekâs trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
Dunstan,
Just wondering whether you look at the 'Supplemental Report' and associated 'CIT' which breaks out the Index Funds [which L/S ratios are extreme as is their total size]. A glance few minutes ago made clear this remains the case, even as it had pre-2008 [but not quite so extreme now as then. Far as I know same applies to swap dealers who 'work' the Index Funds.
CIT -- http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deaviewcit.htm
Additionally, please note Index/Swap Funds had been - and probably still are - included in the COT's 'Commercials' group [even though they certainly are not, and that this results from a loop hole in the Commodity Futures Modernization Act [CFMA] which Clinton signed into law just before leaving office].
The [late] head of one of Citi''s commodity trading divisions made clear that metals' [and many others] prices had been moved ''Beyond Fundamentals'' in [I think it was] a 2006 report -- same was very evident in the oil markets, and became more so.
Finally, if you've not, you might want to take a look into Steve Briese's COT work et cetera.
Just wondering whether you look at the 'Supplemental Report' and associated 'CIT' which breaks out the Index Funds [which L/S ratios are extreme as is their total size]. A glance few minutes ago made clear this remains the case, even as it had pre-2008 [but not quite so extreme now as then. Far as I know same applies to swap dealers who 'work' the Index Funds.
CIT -- http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deaviewcit.htm
Additionally, please note Index/Swap Funds had been - and probably still are - included in the COT's 'Commercials' group [even though they certainly are not, and that this results from a loop hole in the Commodity Futures Modernization Act [CFMA] which Clinton signed into law just before leaving office].
The [late] head of one of Citi''s commodity trading divisions made clear that metals' [and many others] prices had been moved ''Beyond Fundamentals'' in [I think it was] a 2006 report -- same was very evident in the oil markets, and became more so.
Finally, if you've not, you might want to take a look into Steve Briese's COT work et cetera.