waste of time. you can search on my past posts searching on "Fib levels" I posted a study PDF that was published that found fib levels are absolutely no better than other levels...
retracements are retracements.
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Fibonacci
- Thread starter erol
- Start date
waste of time. you can search on my past posts searching on "Fib levels" I posted a study PDF that was published that found fib levels are absolutely no better than other levels...
retracements are retracements.
Regardless of how certain people feel , I have known guys who are extremely successful traders who've been trading for 25 yrs who implement Fibonacci methodology into their trading.
You could make the same argument that many other people make that trend-trading doesn't work either...
Again, imo it boils down to traders not knowing how to use them and not having a plan or rules.
You could make the same argument that many other people make that trend-trading doesn't work either...
Again, imo it boils down to traders not knowing how to use them and not having a plan or rules.
A few free resources with years worth of charts and Fibonacci analysis:
http://traderx.blogspot.com/
http://traderjamie.blogspot.com/
http://traderx.blogspot.com/
http://traderjamie.blogspot.com/
since enough people follow fibs, it might be self-fulfilling. however, i like to use fibs (as well as pivot levels, etc..) as how to go against retail traders.
let's say some horrible guru says 38% is a good buy. well, let's say it bounces there slightly, then i look to see if the bounce is shallow. if it is, i sell under the recent low.
day traders do like 50% of a range.
61.8% is another horrible one. i find no edge there, just marketing.
50% is the "best".
remember, 90% fail. so fade what the masses look at.
let's say some horrible guru says 38% is a good buy. well, let's say it bounces there slightly, then i look to see if the bounce is shallow. if it is, i sell under the recent low.
day traders do like 50% of a range.
61.8% is another horrible one. i find no edge there, just marketing.
50% is the "best".
remember, 90% fail. so fade what the masses look at.
I can't say it enough. You need to have rules along with ANY trading system. No rules, no plan means no success.
Someone earlier in the thread asked about a book to check out. I highly recommend "Fibonacci Analysis" by Constance Brown. The book is not terribly well written but the content is excellent.
Once you get a feel for the techniques she intoduces in the book and apply them to your charts, you will get an insight into the eerie power of the Fibonacci sequence to describe price contraction and expansion.
Practicing the techniques is definitely the key. The places she recommends starting and ending the ratios, and her use of several overlaping ratios to create confluence zones is something I have found both novel and useful. Simply using the high and low of the swing never seems to work neatly by comparison.
The predictive value of future support and resistance levels derived by her techniques has been suprising. Fibonacci confluence support and resistance level projections I made months ago are now being respected by the price action.
I don't feel like it is some magical roadmap of future moves, but it gives you a set of high probability future waypoints where the price action will likely stall, or reverse. In particular her use of Fibonacci ratio "confluence" has proved extremely useful.
My 2 cents...
Once you get a feel for the techniques she intoduces in the book and apply them to your charts, you will get an insight into the eerie power of the Fibonacci sequence to describe price contraction and expansion.
Practicing the techniques is definitely the key. The places she recommends starting and ending the ratios, and her use of several overlaping ratios to create confluence zones is something I have found both novel and useful. Simply using the high and low of the swing never seems to work neatly by comparison.
The predictive value of future support and resistance levels derived by her techniques has been suprising. Fibonacci confluence support and resistance level projections I made months ago are now being respected by the price action.
I don't feel like it is some magical roadmap of future moves, but it gives you a set of high probability future waypoints where the price action will likely stall, or reverse. In particular her use of Fibonacci ratio "confluence" has proved extremely useful.
My 2 cents...
the truth is, fib levels are a complete waste of time. There is no advantage of 61.8 or any other level.
If you notice, there is nothing but testimonials. And of course, anger, flames and retorts. I posted proof as I pointed to. Fib and round number levels have been debunked by several studies.
Show one person who says, "here is 500 real-world, non-cherry-picked trades, at different Fib levels and here is 500 trades at various non Fib levels. "The Excel spreadsheet shows clearly that Fib levels outperforms random numbers."
Fibs are a belief. But they die hard.
You want to trade retracements, then do so. But getting wrapped up in fib levels and round numbers remains unsupported by evidence, rather than testimonials.
Let the supportes flame, but note the lack of statistical hard proof. "Self-fulfilling" is also a belief.
If you notice, there is nothing but testimonials. And of course, anger, flames and retorts. I posted proof as I pointed to. Fib and round number levels have been debunked by several studies.
Show one person who says, "here is 500 real-world, non-cherry-picked trades, at different Fib levels and here is 500 trades at various non Fib levels. "The Excel spreadsheet shows clearly that Fib levels outperforms random numbers."
Fibs are a belief. But they die hard.
You want to trade retracements, then do so. But getting wrapped up in fib levels and round numbers remains unsupported by evidence, rather than testimonials.
Let the supportes flame, but note the lack of statistical hard proof. "Self-fulfilling" is also a belief.
Quote from TraderZones:
the truth is, fib levels are a complete waste of time. There is no advantage of 61.8 or any other level.
If you notice, there is nothing but testimonials. And of course, anger, flames and retorts. I posted proof as I pointed to. Fib and round number levels have been debunked by several studies.
Show one person who says, "here is 500 real-world, non-cherry-picked trades, at different Fib levels and here is 500 trades at various non Fib levels. "The Excel spreadsheet shows clearly that Fib levels outperforms random numbers."
Fibs are a belief. But they die hard.
You want to trade retracements, then do so. But getting wrapped up in fib levels and round numbers remains unsupported by evidence, rather than testimonials.
Let the supportes flame, but note the lack of statistical hard proof. "Self-fulfilling" is also a belief.
Man, you must have really been burned not trading properly. Gotta have rules and a plan my friend. You can't just "trade fibs"
I've gotten the same complaints that trend trading doesn't work...I guess the last 10 yrs of trading fibs and trend was a fluke...
agreed ratio. same people tell me pivots dont work blah blah. its all about staring at something for long enough and seeing how the price reacts at the level/trendline or whatever. eventually u notice patterns, which i am not going to give details on haha
how come i can pick 1-2 pivots per day that combined with confluence of support and resistance over various indices offer bounce trades with 2:1 risk reward and 60+% win rate?
also i seem to be able to 'magically' pick the fibs that hold and avoid the ones that dont with above random results.
guess ive got a 4 leaf clover up my ass or something...
how come i can pick 1-2 pivots per day that combined with confluence of support and resistance over various indices offer bounce trades with 2:1 risk reward and 60+% win rate?
also i seem to be able to 'magically' pick the fibs that hold and avoid the ones that dont with above random results.
guess ive got a 4 leaf clover up my ass or something...
Quote from RatioTrader:
Man, you must have really been burned not trading properly. Gotta have rules and a plan my friend. You can't just "trade fibs"
I've gotten the same complaints that trend trading doesn't work...I guess the last 10 yrs of trading fibs and trend was a fluke...
no, but your response was expected. personal testimony instead of proof.
You did nothing to prove fib as opposed to other levels had anything to do with it. But your response was in line with what I said to expect.
If fibs have value, then they must have value outside of other widgets.