Fed countdown

[steve46]

Well I hope you got flat above 86.

I setup a limit long at 83.25

As expected I got hit just before the announcment and I took profit at 85.75.

Here is the chart showing the LRC midline (where I placed my stop)

What is interesting is the reversal move that followed.

Frankly I did not expect it.

My strategy is to capture a few points on the initial thrust
and if I see a pullback to either add or use it to get flat. As usual I would suggest retail stay out during these events.

I have posted on this before in a thread titled "trading the FOMC"

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from Surdo:

Great job tooting your own horn, You were correct for 8 minutes!
I hope you had time to enter orders in between back patting on here.

i actually did -

sold my october calls then bought them back 10 minutes later.

i won this one, let's see what tomorrow brings....

 

[HolyGrail]

Over the coming weeks the dollar is going to get slammed. I'm sure glad I have been short in the market. Remember now this was the "good news" and the market still went down. Wait until some more bad news comes out and this market will TANK!!!

Even if the market comes back before the end of the day I don't think there will be much upside from here.

 

[steve46]

I don't have a clue as to what will happen from here, but I do see the chart showing not much change as a result of this announcement.

Here is a daily chart with my trend lines in place.

 

[steve46]

and here is another with 60 min candles

I think what matters at this point is how bonds behave during the coming auction markets

If I remember correctly we have 3, 5 and 10 year comming this week. So far the bond market has behaved very well.

Steve

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from steve46:

and here is another with 60 min candles

I think what matters at this point is how bonds behave during the coming auction markets

If I remember correctly we have 3, 5 and 10 year comming this week. So far the bond market has behaved very well.

Steve

i think you're right steve. i don't have a good handle on where the trend is right now. a few more sessions and I think we will have direction for the next few months.

 

[bjg]

So where are all the bulls? Up seems to be the mood in this thread.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from bjg:

So where are all the bulls? Up seems to be the mood in this thread.

waiting. i don't expect a big move until tomorrow.

if cisco has good numbers and good guidence after the close, i expect the nas to start coming back....

 

[Maharaja]

Quote from nonlinear5:

If there is a pause, the market will go up slightly (since the pause is mostly expected). If there is a hike, there will be a big sell off. Therefore, the odds favor a short position with a tight stop. With that position, I figure, I risk 3 S&P points (the size of my stop) for a potential move down of 25 ES points. The probability of hitting the stop is about 70%. So, the expected value of this position is:

-3 * 0.7 + 25 * 0.3 = 5.5 (points of profit)

That's a lot of random numbers you are pulling out of your ass...

 

[caddyshack2006]

Quote from krazykarl:

best call ever. i should be on that fast money show...

to tell em how fast you lost your money