Fed countdown

[krazykarl]

one hour until the minutes are released. is there anyone that has an open position right now? If so, what sectors are you looking to move the most?

 

[nonlinear5]

If there is a pause, the market will go up slightly (since the pause is mostly expected). If there is a hike, there will be a big sell off. Therefore, the odds favor a short position with a tight stop. With that position, I figure, I risk 3 S&P points (the size of my stop) for a potential move down of 25 ES points. The probability of hitting the stop is about 70%. So, the expected value of this position is:

-3 * 0.7 + 25 * 0.3 = 5.5 (points of profit)

 

[krazykarl]

vix made an interesting move up just now..... set up for a reversal????

 

[krazykarl]

i'm going out on a limb - but i see a bullish market reaction signaled on my screen right now.

5 minutes out.

 

[skyriderfox]

Might be good to play QLD? (Double the Nasdaq, long)....we got 3 minutes, let's see what Uncle Ben has in store.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from krazykarl:

i'm going out on a limb - but i see a bullish market reaction signaled on my screen right now.

5 minutes out.

best call ever. i should be on that fast money show...

 

[Surdo]

Great job tooting your own horn, You were correct for 8 minutes!
I hope you had time to enter orders in between back patting on here.

 

[HolyGrail]

Well here comes the slide anyway.

 

[smilingsynic]

Degenerate gamblers deserve every penny they lose.

 

[capmac]

Here comes the crater job...