Feburary could be a great month- Stay positive

[Landis82]

Quote from day7793:

Those were SPX 's March 2007 1370-1380 area lows and also August intraday low (which by itself doesn't have that much significance) The next resistance is the downward sloping 50 day moving average around 1420-1430 area.

Now you can test me on another quizz to see if I know what you think you only know.

Those lows that you have referred to have a lot less significance than you claim.
Here's why:


Yesterday, the SPX closed near the 21-day MA at 1378.90 after spiking through the MA and coming off a bit into the close.

Also interesting to note:

1383.12 is a fibonacci 61.8% of the initial leg up off the lows at 1270.05 to 1368.55

Take .618 of 98.50 ( first leg ) and add that to the Jan. 28th pullback low at 1322.25 to get the 1383.12 target for the "measured-move".

Also keep in mind that the 50% retracement of the move down off the mid-December high at 1498.85 to the low at 1270.05 = 1384.45

Yesterday's high:

1385.60

As a result of the above, I would say that the SPX showed itself to have broken above resistance in the 1383 - 1384.50 range, and not the 1373 that you have claimed by simply ( and naively ) looking back to the lows of March of 2007.

A "full" measured-move would now target 1420.75 by adding the initial leg off the 1270.05 low of 98.50 to the low at 1322.25 which gets you:

1420.75

Now that's what I call real Technical Analysis.
Thanks for playing.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from frank grimes:

day you have not answered my question, are you a one way investor, or do you short stock, indices, futures?

I am basically an Options strategist. I use Iron condors, put spreads, ratio spreads, synthetic positions, butterflies, calendar spreads etc etc.

I use stocks for my portfolio. I donot like directional trading and I used to work on SPX but lately moved to NDX, RUT, IWM etc.

I do short, but I can use options to create equivalent short positions, lot less hassles.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from Landis82:

Those lows that you have referred to have a lot less significance than you claim.
Here's why:


Yesterday, the SPX closed near the 21-day MA at 1378.90 after spiking through the MA and coming off a bit into the close.

Also interesting to note:

1383.12 is a fibonacci 61.8% of the initial leg up off the lows at 1270.05 to 1368.55

Take .618 of 98.50 ( first leg ) and add that to the Jan. 28th pullback low at 1322.25 to get the 1383.12 target for the "measured-move".

Also keep in mind that the 50% retracement of the move down off the mid-December high at 1498.85 to the low at 1270.05 = 1384.45

Yesterday's high:

1385.60

As a result of the above, I would say that the SPX showed itself to have broken above resistance in the 1383 - 1384.50 range, and not the 1373 that you have claimed by simply ( and naively ) looking back to the lows of March of 2007.

A "full" measured-move would now target 1420.75 by adding the initial leg off the 1270.05 low of 98.50 to the low at 1322.25 which gets you:

1420.75

Now that's what I call real Technical Analysis.
Thanks for playing.

Thank you for your enlightened post. I didn't evalute my results on fib analysis. There is a 50 day MA to be dealt with around 1420 and your fib number as well.

Wish you can provide a daily column on market analysis for all of us here on ET.

 

[FanOfFridays]

Landis, you're casting pearls before swine here. This idiot knows goddamn well that his analyses are garbage. He contradicts himself from post to post and then bails out into 'You are very bad people for selling short'.

I'm telling you, he's a serial masochist who's getting off on all of this.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from day7793:

Thank you for your enlightened post. I didn't evalute my results on fib analysis. There is a 50 day MA to be dealt with around 1420 and your fib number as well.

Wish you can provide a daily column on market analysis for all of us here on ET.

The thought has crossed my mind, but it does not do anything but become an educational process for others since the majority of posters on ET have very little knowledge base in Technical Analysis.

Coming across someone on ET that actually does their own "Homework" and number-crunching . . . let alone looks at anything more than a 50 day or 200 day moving average is an exception to the trash that I see posted repeatedly day in, and day out on this website.

I first became involved with ET because I learned a lot about how to set-up a remote trading platform in my home office. The Hardware and Software Forums seem to be the only forums here on ET that still provide some sort of value and quality content. Every now and then I will come across a trader who uses technical analysis from a different perspective than me, and it is most enjoyable and interesting to see such a point of view using the same technical tools.

Everything else here on ET has become garbage and Baron knows it.

Rather than actually doing something about it he sits back in "silence" counting his advertising dollars, made due in large part to the ridiculously absurd posts by the likes of "S2007" and all of his other aliases.

One of these days there is gonna be yet another "Why Did the ES Get Excited at 8:30AM" thread on ET and no one will even reply.

THAT day is coming sooner than Baron even knows . . .

 

[Landis82]

Quote from traderNik:

Landis, you're casting pearls before swine here. This idiot knows goddamn well that his analyses are garbage. He contradicts himself from post to post and then bails out into 'You are very bad people for selling short'.

I'm telling you, he's a serial masochist who's getting off on all of this.

Understood.
I may very well be on my last weekend of posting on ET. There is very little value left here.

 

[mburnz]

Quote from Landis82:

Understood.
I may very well be on my last weekend of posting on ET. There is very little value left here.

Maybe this is true for you. Thanks for the tip about the hw section I'm only new here myself. So I have a cheeky question - Where will you go?

 

[FanOfFridays]

Quote from Landis82:

Understood.
I may very well be on my last weekend of posting on ET. There is very little value left here.

I hear you loud and clear. I'm just waiting for word to pop up about a for-pay site where this kind of idiotic multiple posting is savagely beaten down.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from Landis82:

Those lows that you have referred to have a lot less significance than you claim.
Here's why:


Yesterday, the SPX closed near the 21-day MA at 1378.90 after spiking through the MA and coming off a bit into the close.

Also interesting to note:

1383.12 is a fibonacci 61.8% of the initial leg up off the lows at 1270.05 to 1368.55

Take .618 of 98.50 ( first leg ) and add that to the Jan. 28th pullback low at 1322.25 to get the 1383.12 target for the "measured-move".

Also keep in mind that the 50% retracement of the move down off the mid-December high at 1498.85 to the low at 1270.05 = 1384.45

Yesterday's high:

1385.60

As a result of the above, I would say that the SPX showed itself to have broken above resistance in the 1383 - 1384.50 range, and not the 1373 that you have claimed by simply ( and naively ) looking back to the lows of March of 2007.

A "full" measured-move would now target 1420.75 by adding the initial leg off the 1270.05 low of 98.50 to the low at 1322.25 which gets you:

1420.75

Now that's what I call real Technical Analysis.
Thanks for playing.

1370ish was modest resistance - it was the prior lows from August and earlier Jan. On Friday we gapped up to that level and immediately sold off. I agree it's not heavy resistance but trading off that level would have been very useful on last Friday after the initial 115 point S&P rally.

Same with 1420-30 - the market stalled there earlier this month, so it's probably a good place to lighten up on longs.

In any case, levels on the S&P or any other index are always a bit more vague than for individual stocks or markets like commodities, forex etc. The reason is that an index value is dependent purely on the constituent stocks. So 1375 last month may have seen most stocks hit their individual support levels. But 1375 recently may have seen some stocks above resistance, and some below resistance. The index value is the same, but the technical picture for the 500 stocks in the index could be radically different.

This is why I'm always a bit cautious with using technicals on indices. With the VIX out there, there's less need to rely on precise levels anyway.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from traderNik:

Landis, you're casting pearls before swine here. This idiot knows goddamn well that his analyses are garbage. He contradicts himself from post to post and then bails out into 'You are very bad people for selling short'.

I'm telling you, he's a serial masochist who's getting off on all of this.

Why dont take a hike and disappear if you are so swelled up in your bottom hole? Whoever asked you to come here and attack others on a personal basis? Have I ever attacked you without any provocation?

The fact is you are definitely inferior in your market fundamental knowledge, technical analysis, and also a depressed reject from the bottom of the pile. You could not even construct a technical analysis on the SPX as the other poster did , or come up with any decent comments to bring some kind of credibility to yourself.

Get lost.