Feb 1, 2023 FOMC Meeting: To Hike or Not to Hike?

from CNBC, on earnings so far:


WED, FEB 8TH 2023
Shipping firm Maersk posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead
EARNINGS
Shipping firm Maersk posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead
WED, FEB 8TH 2023
SocGen reports 64% slide in annual profits but beats market expectations
EARNINGS
SocGen reports 64% slide in annual profits but beats market expectations
WED, FEB 8TH 2023
Chipotle misses expectations for earnings, revenue and same-store sales
RESTAURANTS
Chipotle misses expectations for earnings, revenue and same-store sales
TUE, FEB 7TH 2023
AUTOS
Hertz fourth-quarter profit beats as costs come down and travel rebounds
TUE, FEB 7TH 2023
EARNINGS
BP posts record 2022 earnings to join Big Oil profit bonanza
TUE, FEB 7TH 2023
TECH
SoftBank’s Vision Fund posts fourth straight quarter of losses


Disney to cut 7,000 jobs and slash $5.5 billion in costs as it unveils vast restructuring
MORE IN EARNINGS
Pinterest shares slip on fourth-quarter revenue miss and weak forecast
TECH
Pinterest shares slip on fourth-quarter revenue miss and weak forecast
MON, FEB 6TH 2023
Apple sales drop 5% in largest quarterly revenue decline since 2016
TECH
Apple sales drop 5% in largest quarterly revenue decline since 2016
THU, FEB 2ND 2023
Alphabet misses on earnings and revenue as YouTube falls short
TECH
Alphabet misses on earnings and revenue as YouTube falls short
THU, FEB 2ND 2023
TECH
Amazon beats on fourth-quarter revenue but provides light guidance
THU, FEB 2ND 2023
AUTOS
Ford posts full-year net loss, ugly fourth quarter citing ‘execution issues’
THU, FEB 2ND 2023
RESTAURANTS
Starbucks misses expectations as China Covid surge hurts international sales
FRI, FEB 3RD 2023
Qualcomm revenue falls 12%, guidance implies more pain this quarter
TECH
Qualcomm revenue falls 12%, guidance implies more pain this quarter

Deutsche Bank shares slip despite profit beat as traders weigh uncertain outlook
THU, FEB 2ND 2023
TECH
Meta shares soar almost 20% on better-than-expected revenue
WED, FEB 1ST 2023
Peloton shares surge 26% after fitness company posts subscription revenue growth
RETAIL
Peloton shares surge 26% after fitness company posts subscription revenue growth
WED, FEB 1ST 2023
Novartis says operating profit to grow again ahead of Sandoz spin off
HEALTH AND SCIENCE
Novartis says operating profit to grow again ahead of Sandoz spin off
WED, FEB 1ST 2023
AMD beats on sales and profit but warns of a 10% revenue decline in Q1
TECH
AMD beats on sales and profit but warns of a 10% revenue decline in Q1
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
TECH
Snap shares plunge on weak revenue as digital ad struggles continue
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
TECH
Spotify shares pop 12% on strong user growth
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
HEALTH AND SCIENCE
Pfizer expects 2023 sales to decline as much as 33% compared with record-breaking 2022
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
Exxon smashes Western oil majors' earnings record with $56 billion profit for 2022
OIL AND GAS
Exxon smashes Western oil majors’ earnings record with $56 billion profit for 2022
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
McDonald's profit grows as inflation-weary customers flock to its restaurants
RESTAURANTS
McDonald’s profit grows as inflation-weary customers flock to its restaurants
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
GM smashes expectations and guides toward a strong 2023
AUTOS
GM smashes expectations and guides toward a strong 2023
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
TRANSPORTATION
UPS revenue falls short of expectations despite growth in U.S. business
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
EUROPE NEWS
UBS gets a boost from higher interest rates, but warns of ‘uncertain’ year ahead
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
EARNINGS
UniCredit hikes payout goal by 40% after record profit
TUE, JAN 31ST 2023
Ryanair posts record Christmas quarter, sees 'very robust' summer demand
EARNINGS
Ryanair posts record Christmas quarter, sees ‘very robust’ summer demand
MON, JAN 30TH 2023
Chevron annual profit doubles to record $36.5 billion, but fourth-quarter miss hits shares
OIL AND GAS
Chevron annual profit doubles to record $36.5 billion, but fourth-quarter miss hits shares
FRI, JAN 27TH 2023
Fashion retailer H&M's profit tumbles more than expected as costs bite
EUROPE NEWS
Fashion retailer H&M’s profit tumbles more than expected as costs bite
FRI, JAN 27TH 2023
TECH
Intel shares drop on weak quarterly results and expectations for another quarter of losses
THU, JAN 26TH 2023
EARNINGS
Dow posts dour quarterly results, plans to slash 2,000 jobs
THU, JAN 26TH 2023
AIRLINES
American Airlines beats fourth-quarter profit expectations as higher fares buoy revenue
THU, JAN 26TH 2023
Comcast beats expectations even as broadband growth slows, Peacock racks up losses
MEDIA
Comcast beats expectations even as broadband growth slows, Peacock racks up losses
THU, JAN 26TH 2023
Southwest forecasts lingering losses as bookings slow in wake of holiday meltdown
AIRLINES
Southwest forecasts lingering losses as bookings slow in wake of holiday meltdown
THU, JAN 26TH 2023
Johnnie Walker-maker Diageo beats first-half sales estimates
RETAIL
Johnnie Walker-maker Diageo beats first-half sales estimates
THU, JAN 26TH 2023
TECH
Tesla reports record revenue and beats on earnings
WED, JAN 25TH 2023
TECH
IBM tops revenue estimates, says it will cut 3,900 jobs
WED, JAN 25TH 2023
RETAIL
Levi Strauss beats estimates, offers upbeat guidance for fiscal year
THU, JAN 26TH 2023
AT&T shares jump as subscriber growth tops analyst expectations
MEDIA
AT&T shares jump as subscriber growth tops analyst expectations
WED, JAN 25TH 2023
Boeing posts quarterly loss as labor and supply strains overshadow increase in jet demand
AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
Boeing posts quarterly loss as labor and supply strains overshadow increase in jet demand
WED, JAN 25TH 2023
Chip giant ASML sees 2023 sales surge; says China revenue to be steady despite U.S. restrictions
TECH
Chip giant ASML sees 2023 sales surge; says China revenue to be steady despite U.S. restrictions
WED, JAN 25TH 2023
TECH
Microsoft offers lackluster guidance, says new business growth slowed in December
WED, JAN 25TH 2023
INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES
GE’s 2023 profit forecast weighed down by renewable energy business
TUE, JAN 24TH 2023
ENTERTAINMENT
Netflix blows away expectations on subscriber numbers
THU, JAN 19TH 2023
Procter & Gamble revenue and profit fall as company looks to higher prices to offset declining sales
HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
Procter & Gamble revenue and profit fall as company looks to higher prices to offset declining sales
THU, JAN 19TH 2023
United results top estimates as demand remains resilient despite high fares
AIRLINES
United results top estimates as demand remains resilient despite high fares
WED, JAN 18TH 2023
Morgan Stanley earnings top expectations, helped by record wealth management revenue
MARKETS
Morgan Stanley earnings top expectations, helped by record wealth management revenue
TUE, JAN 17TH 2023
FINANCE
Goldman Sachs posts its worst earnings miss in a decade as revenue falls while expenses rise
TUE, JAN 17TH 2023
FINANCE
Citigroup’s fourth-quarter profit declines by 21% as bank sets aside more money for credit losses
FRI, JAN 13TH 2023
MARKETS
Wells Fargo shares rise even as bank’s profits cut in half by higher reserves, settlement costs
FRI, JAN 13TH 2023
JPMorgan tops estimates for fourth-quarter revenue, but says mild recession is now 'central case’
FINANCE
JPMorgan tops estimates for fourth-quarter revenue, but says mild recession is now ‘central case’
FRI, JAN 13TH 2023
Bank of America tops expectations as higher rates help offset declines in investment banking
MARKETS
Bank of America tops expectations as higher rates help offset declines in investment banking
FRI, JAN 13TH 2023
Higher labor costs dent Delta's profit forecast but travel demand is still strong
AIRLINES
Higher labor costs dent Delta’s profit forecast but travel demand is still strong
FRI, JAN 13TH 2023
AIRLINES
American Airlines shares jump nearly 10% after airline hikes revenue and profit outlook
THU, JAN 12TH 2023
RETAIL
Bed Bath & Beyond reports wider-than-expected loss as possible bankruptcy looms
TUE, JAN 10TH 2023
FOOD & BEVERAGE
Constellation Brands’ shares tumble as higher costs hit beer supply chain
THU, JAN 5TH 2023
Walgreens shares fall even after quarterly results top expectations
RETAIL
Walgreens shares fall even after quarterly results top expectations
THU, JAN 5TH 2023
Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year
TECH
Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year
TUE, JAN 3RD 2023
Semiconductor maker Micron announces 10% staff reduction, suspends bonuses
TECH
Semiconductor maker Micron announces 10% staff reduction, suspends bonuses

WED, FEB 8TH 2023
Affirm cuts 19% of workforce; shares tank on earnings miss
 
January 517K job creation has become dated information. looking forward, visibility is rather gloomy:

Mass Layoffs in 2022 & 2023: What's Next for Employees? (mondo.com)

Layoffs.fyi - Tech Layoff Tracker and Startup Layoff Lists
Companies with layoffs in 2023:
  • Disney layoffs: 3% of workforce laid off (February, 2023)
  • Zoom layoffs: 15% of workforce laid off (February, 2023)
  • Dell layoffs: 5% of workforce laid off (February, 2023)
  • HubSpot layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023)
  • PayPal layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023)
  • IBM layoffs: 1.5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Gemini layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Yankee Candle layoffs: 13% of office workers laid off (January, 2023)
  • 3M layoffs: <1% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Spotify layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Google (Alphabet) layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Microsoft layoffs: 4-5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Amazon layoffs: 1-2% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Carta layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Coinbase layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • DirecTV layoffs: 5-6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Salesforce layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Vimeo layoffs: 11% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Goldman Sachs layoffs: 8% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
  • Compass layoffs: size of layoffs not immediately known (January, 2023)
  • Stitch Fix layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)

Companies with layoffs in 2022:
  • Cisco layoffs: 5% of workforce laid off (December, 2022)
  • DoorDash layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (November, 2022)
  • Candy Digital layoffs: 33% of workforce laid off (November, 2022)
  • Redfin layoffs: 13% of workforce laid off(November, 2022)
  • Amazon layoffs: 1% of workforce laid off beginning (November, 2022)
  • Meta layoffs: 13% of workforce laid off (November, 2022)
  • Twitter layoffs: 50% of workforce laid off (November, 2022)
  • Zillow layoffs: 5% of workforce laid off (October, 2022)
  • Peloton layoffs: 12% of workforce laid off (October, 2022)
  • DocuSign layoffs: 9% of workforce laid off (September, 2022)
  • Taboola layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (September, 2022)
  • Snapchat layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (September, 2022)
  • Outbrain layoffs: 3% of workforce laid off (July, 2022)
  • Lyft layoffs: 2% of workforce laid off (July, 2022)
  • The Mom Project layoffs: 15% of workforce laid off (July, 2022)
  • Opensea layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (July, 2022)
  • Substack layoffs: 14% of workforce laid off (June, 2022)
  • Ninantic layoffs: 8% of workforce laid off (June, 2022)
  • MasterClass layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (June, 2022)
  • Bird layoffs: 23% of workforce laid off (June, 2022)
  • Superhuman layoffs: 22% of workforce laid off (June, 2022)
  • Cameo layoffs: 25% of workforce laid off (May, 2022)
  • Robinhood layoffs: 9% of workforce laid off (April, 2022)
  • Virgin Hyperloop layoffs: 50% of workforce laid off (February, 2022)
  • Peloton layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (February, 2022)
  • Beachbody layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2022)
 
Canada +150K jobs ten times expectation, mostly full time jobs. Note that would equate to 1.35M new jobs in the US pro rated to population. Reported that people are going back to work after pandemic and there are plenty of openings ( Canada had 1M job vacancies as of a few months ago it was 900K last I heard ). Some of you just aren't getting it. The worst case scenarios that got mostly baked into markets in 2022 are very unlikely with everyone working. Rates got hiked a ton in Canada, similar but even faster then the US, and they have specifically said no new hikes. In fact, the last 0.25% hike was a debate between no hike and that, with no possibility at all of more.
 
currently, US unemployment rate drops down to all time low (At 3.4%). Historically, this low rate combines with the yield-curve inversion. this is not a good sign. something is going to snap.

Yield-Curve-and-Unemployment-Rate.png



SPX-negative-Earning-Growth.png



bad combination for earnings: energy is up, dollar is up, inflation is up.
Energy-ISGoing-Up.png


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QQQFeb23.png


SMHFeb23.png


IWMFeb23.png


VIXFeb23.png
 
Everyone looks at the market in a limited way, because of how huge it is compared to our feeble minds, however the incentives involved are very simple. Everyone wants to take more money out than they put in. There are only three wayz:

1. Buy something that generates money

2. Buy something that absorbes new (freshly printed, or repatriated) money

3. Take money out of other traders' accounts

Fundies lock onto the first one.

Being an insider is how to get the second type.

But you have to be an ELITE TRADER to get the third!
 
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