Feb 1, 2023 FOMC Meeting: To Hike or Not to Hike?

Nine_Ender said:
It's a dynamic situation so just because they said something doesn't mean they'll hike. You might get one more 0.25%. Canada already paused. The US doesn't operate in a bubble. The chances of a 0.50% hike today was almost zero in reality I was surprised how many thought otherwise. No, the US Fed doesn't exist to crash markets and support short side day trader's dreams and greed.
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CME FedWatch Tool yesterday morning was at 99.9% that they would only raise 25 bps. Where are you getting "how many thought otherwise" from?

But make that the world doesn't operate in bubble outside the U.S. As goes The Fed other CBs follow.

Meanwhile CL weakening for the second time in a matter weeks is interesting.
 
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HeSaidSheSaid said:
I don't think the independence or the disconnect is going to last every long, once those big job cuts from Tech companies would take effect and cascade down (collaterally) to other sectors, ... there're consequences to those big layoffs, then the FED would have the unemployment problem on their hands. Additionally, the bond markets are telling we're going to have recession in the near future (I think w r in the calm period before the big storm like it happened in the past). that's why I think the FED would go easy on the rate today. They didn't want to rock the boat too much (the job boat).



[I think your wife thinks you're having an affair with a Greek Aphrodite with all the Vega, Theta, Gammy, options talk).


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The disconnect relates to job strength pushing raises. Powell's comments in the presser imply he will allow job strength as long as wage growth is tame. Not targeting a "soft landing" but focusing on mandated inflation targets. That's why we've rallied so hard.

It's a pivot in the strongest possible language.
 
SunTrader said:
CME FedWatch Tool yesterday morning was at 99.9% that they would only raise 25 bps. Where are you getting "how many thought otherwise" from?

But make that the world doesn't operate in bubble outside the U.S. As goes The Fed other CBs follow.

Meanwhile CL weakening for the second time in a matter weeks is interesting.
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The Canadian CB has led the US Fed in interest rate moves and policy. In fact, the US Fed referred to it in their discussion. This is fact not open to debate. Same thing happened early in the 2009 bull. Try to keep up. Canada froze interest rate hikes. No need to consult the US Fed. Our inflation rate has been below the US rate throughout and our national debt to GDP is much lower since 2009. There was no bear market here in 2022. If you had invested in the TSX in 2022 in US$ you'd have made money.
 
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