Fascinating Finding in Sentiment Polls: Bull Market Is Here To Stay

SPY In A Week

  • +5%

    Votes: 15 18.5%

  • +2%

    Votes: 9 11.1%

  • flat

    Votes: 18 22.2%

  • -2%

    Votes: 17 21.0%

  • -5%

    Votes: 22 27.2%
  • Total voters
    81
hate to sound arrogant....but ET is a great contrarian indicator. besides, the "votes" are coming from who? people posting pnl? doubt it.
 
Quote from shortie:

My hands have been itching to swing some shorts. Naturally, I could not resist and have opened short positions last week (under water now). These are meant to be 1-5 day swing positions.

As typical, looks like I was too early based on the negative sentiment that I see in the polls from realmoney.com. I found polls from last 3 weeks. Looks like they are initiated on a weekend and, i am guessing, most of the voting is done on that weekend.

One interesting observation is that the sentiment is extremely volatile. Another one is that the bearish sentiment is very strong going into the next week. These are dumb money voting, so they usually get it all wrong.

dates 03/29 04/09 04/17

Bullish 15.4% 44.0% 30.2%
Bearish 76.7% 40.8% 58.4%
Neutral 7.9% 15.2% 11.4%

Total Votes 22150 8143 5815

the last poll: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10487768/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
More...


another bearish reading = bull market is safe for now

Total Votes: 3880 votes


1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?

Bullish 34.17% 1326 votes
Bearish 52.11% 2022 votes
Neutral 13.71% 532 votes


http://www.thestreet.com/story/10491857/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html
 
Last week the majority of that poll was correct in general as the market retreated. Therefore, that poll is doubtful as judged by last week as a contrarian indicator.
 
Quote from riskfreetrading:

Last week the majority of that poll was correct in general as the market retreated. Therefore, that poll is doubtful as judged by last week as a contrarian indicator.
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yes and no:

the market was weak but came back to almost break-even (~1% drop for the week). now compare this to the poll that was very bearish (30% bull/58% bear). to me it looks like the folks were expecting a much more bearish action (and were wrong as usual).

the latest poll is shaping out similar to the previous one (34%/52%). so i am expecting a positive week. we shall see...
 
Quote from shortie:

My hands have been itching to swing some shorts. Naturally, I could not resist and have opened short positions last week (under water now). These are meant to be 1-5 day swing positions.

As typical, looks like I was too early based on the negative sentiment that I see in the polls from realmoney.com. I found polls from last 3 weeks. Looks like they are initiated on a weekend and, i am guessing, most of the voting is done on that weekend.

One interesting observation is that the sentiment is extremely volatile. Another one is that the bearish sentiment is very strong going into the next week. These are dumb money voting, so they usually get it all wrong.

dates 03/29 04/09 04/17

Bullish 15.4% 44.0% 30.2%
Bearish 76.7% 40.8% 58.4%
Neutral 7.9% 15.2% 11.4%

Total Votes 22150 8143 5815

the last poll: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10487768/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
More...

Realmoney published their summary of polling for the last 5 weeks. for some reason they excluded the super-bearish reading on around march 29(see the #s above).

actually, it appears that the majority is actually more right than wrong. they missed march-06 bottom, but after that they did quite well.

hmm??? who is the dumb money then?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10488249/1/bears-paw-back-in-poll.html

attachment.php


the reading for the coming week (they will date it ~Apr-27):
Bullish 34.17% 1326 votes
Bearish 52.11% 2022 votes
Neutral 13.71% 532 votes
 

Attachments

i am starting to think that a significant swine flu news (if any) next week may throw my contrarian thinking based on the bearish poll right into the trash.

an example of such news could be the first casualties in the States from the flu and/or a large number of new infections. it is hard to guess how much of this potential negative news is already priced in.

so, i think we are going to have an UP week as long as there is NO significant bad news about the flu.
 
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