Fascinating Finding in Sentiment Polls: Bull Market Is Here To Stay

SPY In A Week

  • +5%

    Votes: 15 18.5%

  • +2%

    Votes: 9 11.1%

  • flat

    Votes: 18 22.2%

  • -2%

    Votes: 17 21.0%

  • -5%

    Votes: 22 27.2%
  • Total voters
    81
piezoe,
i agree with you. i will be bailing out of my shorts as soon as monday. we should get a much better opportunity to short some time down the road.
 
Pretty sad when the only reason the mkt's rising is because well its going up. As others stated this is a 10 -20 year japan type situation. I follow the put to call ratio and overall its been realively low for weeks. Actually the media is very bullish now and has been for weeks. But i'm a trader and the trend is up till further notice
 
there is nothing strange or sad about it: market continue up because they started going up, and continue down because they started a moved down. That is the reason why they overshoot.
 
Flat to -2%, it's going to take extremely positive earnings from TXN, IBM, AAPL, AMZN and MSFT to keep this 6 week rally going.
 
Quote from shortie:

i admit that i am not very bright. but you misunderstood that i took my position based on realmoney poll. i entered shorts based on my own reasonings. i saw the poll only this friday and i dug up the older ones. having seen the polls, i want to bail out of my shorts ASAP.

i don't care who owns realmoney. i don't read it, but the polls have value IMHO.
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Oh ok. I'm just giving you a hard time.

To be sure, I've been trying to get short recently for a multi-day hold, but these trades continue to morph into intra-day trades.

I'm interested to see what happens this week now that Barron's has picked up (so so so late by the way) a story posted by Zero Hedge about a month ago. I emailed the story to my team 2 weeks before earnings season began. Now that Barron's "breaks" the story, I'm interested to see if they have the strength to pause this low volume mayhem. Trade what you see.

The Barron's link is here (note the date -- they're so late to the party):
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124000857570530541.html

The original Zero Hedge link is here (note the date): http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/exclusive-aig-was-responsible-for-banks.html

IMO, [some] bloggers are doing far better investigative journalism these days than their traditional counterparts. Where is Jon Stewart when you need him?
 
interestingly, Carboni is bullish (short-term daytrading), and his recommendation for tomorrow is
BUY THE MID TO LOW 850.00(s) LEVEL

looks like he thinks that SP (ES contracts move almost in similar fashion) gonna test at least MA200 level during next week:
http://tinyurl.com/c4rv5e

plus, too bearish stances usually good from contrarian perspective

to drop more or less significantly as it usually does in bearish market, this thing should at least test some local highs first. bearish rallies very often are pretty sharp

Quote from shortie:

My hands have been itching to swing some shorts. Naturally, I could not resist and have opened short positions last week (under water now). These are meant to be 1-5 day swing positions.

As typical, looks like I was too early based on the negative sentiment that I see in the polls from realmoney.com. I found polls from last 3 weeks. Looks like they are initiated on a weekend and, i am guessing, most of the voting is done on that weekend.

One interesting observation is that the sentiment is extremely volatile. Another one is that the bearish sentiment is very strong going into the next week. These are dumb money voting, so they usually get it all wrong.

dates 03/29 04/09 04/17

Bullish 15.4% 44.0% 30.2%
Bearish 76.7% 40.8% 58.4%
Neutral 7.9% 15.2% 11.4%

Total Votes 22150 8143 5815

the last poll: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10487768/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
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Quote from Hansel H:

Possibly. It seems too easy though - just sitting around waiting for capitulations. Like the generals fighting the last war, traders stick to the strategies that worked before but that might be out of date. IMO if 20 million smart guys are waiting for the obvious entry point that point won't happen.
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Luckily almost no one waits for capitulations, and most do the opposite - hang on until they capitulate. That's the benefit of trading against humans.
 
Quote from jnorty:

Pretty sad when the only reason the mkt's rising is because well its going up. As others stated this is a 10 -20 year japan type situation. I follow the put to call ratio and overall its been realively low for weeks. Actually the media is very bullish now and has been for weeks. But i'm a trader and the trend is up till further notice
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It's rising because news flow went more positive than people had expected, at a time when the price had declined a lot and sentiment had become very bearish. As a result most of us were either short or flat or underinvested. So now you have people wanting to buy because they see "good news" and have large cash balances, or shorts to cover.

The market is not rising because it has gone up recently - there are so far no major technical squeezes or margin-call rallies, if so you would see large spikes over 1-3 day periods, rather than the more steady move we have had.
 
nice dump today. i should be happy because i unloaded my shorts. but then i was stupid enough to cling to OPG longs which had no intention of reverting. i can't seem to learn to like being raped :(
 
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