Did any of you ever trade the "bund flipper"?
It's fairly rare these days but if you watch closely, every once in a while during quiet markets you might notice a stack of unusually large bids or offers, e.g. 750, 750, 750, apparently attempting to spook opposing algos in to trading the same way.
The trick was essentially to fade any panic, wait for the 750's to pull, and the market to likewise settle back to where it had rested before.
Anyway, over the months/years I've traded a few "gimmicks" like this and made more bucks than I've lost along the way.
Lately I've been thinking I might have had a bit more fun and made a bit more money had I devoted those hours to online poker (regardless of changes in US law). You see threads about people interested in moving from poker to trading, but I don't recall seeing any about going the opposite way.
I'm speculating that online poker might have nourished whatever 'neurotic needs' (for lack of better term) kept me obsessing over the financial markets, and perhaps same could be said for others?
* Very low barriers to entry and clearly defined stakes, allowing even a broke but dedicated learner to grind his way up the pecking order over time.
- Benefit #1 - That sense of "getting somewhere" on your own, in a purely meritocratic environment.
* Greater transparency in terms of who the other players are.
- Benefit #2 - It's easier to play the game when you know who you're playing with. You can read all the books you want about categorizing the various financial market players and their possible motives, but you can't see this on the price ladders (can you?). I wonder if this explains why some/many former pit-traders failed to transition successfully to the screens.
* Vastly larger number of "trades" to scrutinize, and instant "feel good" feedback.
- Benefit #3 - It seems more credible to me when someone has made a comfortable profit over the course of 100,000 hands (which can be done in a reasonable time frame), versus someone who has backtested a trading idea (which never really captures every crucial detail of the live environment), or versus someone who bought a Moving Average crossover at the start of a bull market 5 years ago. It's also in our nature to seek out quick gratification and at least with poker you don't have to wait around long to see the outcome, and hopefully the positive reinforcement to keep going.
* Clearly defined rules and fewer moving parts.
- Benefit #4 - The cards in the deck don't change from one year to the next. In contrast, I believe markets do tend to undergo periodic "regime change" whereby a breakout strategy (for illustrative example only) on a particular timeframe might be wildly successful for 6 months, and dire the next. I'm not saying poker is a perfectly static game where you can just build a mechanical system and leave it to make millions, but from what I know, success in trading is much more of a moving target.
* Less toxic online community
- Benefit #5 - No offence but I find everything about the trading industry repulsive. Everybody seems to be either trolling, scamming or selling something. I'm not so familiar with the major poker forums but I've spent some time there and I think you'll find the average member is more open and honest about their actual experiences in the game.
Just my thoughts. I'm not pushing an agenda whatsoever, just provoking some discussion is all.
It's fairly rare these days but if you watch closely, every once in a while during quiet markets you might notice a stack of unusually large bids or offers, e.g. 750, 750, 750, apparently attempting to spook opposing algos in to trading the same way.
The trick was essentially to fade any panic, wait for the 750's to pull, and the market to likewise settle back to where it had rested before.
Anyway, over the months/years I've traded a few "gimmicks" like this and made more bucks than I've lost along the way.
Lately I've been thinking I might have had a bit more fun and made a bit more money had I devoted those hours to online poker (regardless of changes in US law). You see threads about people interested in moving from poker to trading, but I don't recall seeing any about going the opposite way.
I'm speculating that online poker might have nourished whatever 'neurotic needs' (for lack of better term) kept me obsessing over the financial markets, and perhaps same could be said for others?
* Very low barriers to entry and clearly defined stakes, allowing even a broke but dedicated learner to grind his way up the pecking order over time.
- Benefit #1 - That sense of "getting somewhere" on your own, in a purely meritocratic environment.
* Greater transparency in terms of who the other players are.
- Benefit #2 - It's easier to play the game when you know who you're playing with. You can read all the books you want about categorizing the various financial market players and their possible motives, but you can't see this on the price ladders (can you?). I wonder if this explains why some/many former pit-traders failed to transition successfully to the screens.
* Vastly larger number of "trades" to scrutinize, and instant "feel good" feedback.
- Benefit #3 - It seems more credible to me when someone has made a comfortable profit over the course of 100,000 hands (which can be done in a reasonable time frame), versus someone who has backtested a trading idea (which never really captures every crucial detail of the live environment), or versus someone who bought a Moving Average crossover at the start of a bull market 5 years ago. It's also in our nature to seek out quick gratification and at least with poker you don't have to wait around long to see the outcome, and hopefully the positive reinforcement to keep going.
* Clearly defined rules and fewer moving parts.
- Benefit #4 - The cards in the deck don't change from one year to the next. In contrast, I believe markets do tend to undergo periodic "regime change" whereby a breakout strategy (for illustrative example only) on a particular timeframe might be wildly successful for 6 months, and dire the next. I'm not saying poker is a perfectly static game where you can just build a mechanical system and leave it to make millions, but from what I know, success in trading is much more of a moving target.
* Less toxic online community
- Benefit #5 - No offence but I find everything about the trading industry repulsive. Everybody seems to be either trolling, scamming or selling something. I'm not so familiar with the major poker forums but I've spent some time there and I think you'll find the average member is more open and honest about their actual experiences in the game.
Just my thoughts. I'm not pushing an agenda whatsoever, just provoking some discussion is all.
