Fading today's rally.... Trade it or Fade it?

SoyUnGanador · Oct 13, 2022

Darc said:
It's the Fed itself, or its Members, coming out all week saying they are going to raise Rates no matter what the cost to Employment.

The initial dump, preceded by JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon scare speech, then a massive Rally. Anyone smell a Shakeout by the Institutions?

That is an excellent point, could be. But I thought most of the "institutions" were short?

SoyUnGanador · Oct 13, 2022

So Nine Ender, do you have a view on where the market is going? Is your view most of the inflation/bad news behind us/built into price so we could be going higher from here?

Thanks!

Darc · Oct 13, 2022

SoyUnGanador said:
That is an excellent point, could be. But I thought most of the "institutions" were short?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the Put/Call ratio had been declining, until JP Morgan's Jamie Dimons scare speech.
Some Support and Resistance Guru here should be able to check to see if they took the Index below a Support to Shakeout the Stops, before buying.

TheDawn · Oct 13, 2022

KCalhoun said:
Traded uvxy premkt buy 12.8 sell 13.7, traded tqqq soxl with rally , now at 12:12pm ET I'm fading rally by buying uvxy sqqq as they bounce.

What's your snp call here - trade it or fade it?

I think today's rally is somebody propping up the market. They are doing that now after every single market-moving event like the Fed rate announcement, NFP and CPI. There is NO way that a market can go up by almost 3% after such a crappy CPI report which confirms what we know already and an increase in jobless claims which is starting to signal the start of a recession. But everything is going to all come crashing down tomorrow. There is only so much market- propping-up you can do.

Overnight · Oct 13, 2022

IMV this is nothing but a put-exercise-covering rally.

Wide Tailz · Oct 13, 2022

Absolutely textbook "one day reversal" bullish engulfing candle on huge volume today. I'm still long 300 sqqq. Outch!

KCalhoun · Oct 13, 2022

Wide Tailz said:
Absolutely textbook "one day reversal" bullish engulfing candle on huge volume today. I'm still long 300 sqqq. Outch!

Thx for the reminder, just bot SQQQ aftermarket

formikatrading · Oct 14, 2022

We'll see -- but you are citing past information when the market is a discounting mechanism and already looking out into the future. Not to mention, we're in a seasonal / cyclical sweet spot for a rally. Lots of stuff supporting that the low is in for at least several weeks now.

TheDawn said:
I think today's rally is somebody propping up the market. They are doing that now after every single market-moving event like the Fed rate announcement, NFP and CPI. There is NO way that a market can go up by almost 3% after such a crappy CPI report which confirms what we know already and an increase in jobless claims which is starting to signal the start of a recession. But everything is going to all come crashing down tomorrow. There is only so much market- propping-up you can do.

formikatrading · Oct 14, 2022

@Nine_Ender is definitely one of the better folks on this site with real wisdom and perspective about the markets.

SoyUnGanador said:
That is very interesting Nine Ender. You obviously study this stuff, don't just read the headlines like my "pure ignorant retail guy" self does. Thanks!

TheDawn · Oct 14, 2022

formikatrading said:
We'll see -- but you are citing past information when the market is a discounting mechanism and already looking out into the future. Not to mention, we're in a seasonal / cyclical sweet spot for a rally. Lots of stuff supporting that the low is in for at least several weeks now.

Sweet spot for a rally?? Really?? How? How is October a season/cyclical sweet spot for a rally? Please enlighten us.