Fading today's rally.... Trade it or Fade it?

[SoyUnGanador]

Radically higher? Based on what assumptions? That people have a lot of money in their pockets to buy overpriced, low quality products that are designed to last for a very short time? I don't see that happening for many years to come. We must be living on different planets. In my province 70% of the residents can't make their ends meet. We hit the wall at some point and need to push the reset button.

Based on the assumption, that has always basically been 100% correct, that when a bear market ends and a bull market begins the bull market goes radically higher?

All those negative things you mentioned have to be reflected in the stock price at SOME point. When that is, I do not know. But, as has always happened, bear markets turn into bull markets, eventually.

P.S. sorry you live in the ghetto. Stay safe.

 

[murray t turtle]

You gotta be kitten. ES up almost 200 points from open. This might just become the biggest intraday bounce in stock market history.

%%
Sorry i missed that / but that's life + i have enough on my plate.
Frankly i like the trend move from yesterdays close to open today .
QQQ went up 10% / from eod close to next days peak, in May 2002 bear.
Of course that means one could lose 10% that same way.
And to trade a counter trend bear rally\
i could see where some may want to risk 1% of average short or inverse profit.
Or risk 1% or less today from [edit earlier] short or inverse profit.
Or watch their investments up tick a bit green/LOL
Strangely SPY bear rally finally closed up not much, but 00.9% for week

 

[KCalhoun]

I call bs dcb lasts 3 days max. Just bot 1k uvxy aftermarket. Fade this bitch is what I'm doing, not a reco

 

[SoyUnGanador]

Sure, we all send you a message the moment the top or bottom is in, so you can go all in. CLOWN.

 

[Darc]

i just trade price action; crushed uvxy premkt, then tqqq/soxl on rally, now flipping back to inverses if they ever fkng bounce

i dont care about inflation or the economy or what it all means, im a price action trader looking to make money off volatile moves. re what it all means, zero fucks given, to quote dest Ima trader, i hustle wall street

I wanna be like you when I grow up Ken.

 

[M.W.]

We are living at the edge of a radically changing long term environment. For decades the middle class has fully participated in the workforce and hence participated in wealth creation. That is already radically changing. We are in the midst of the establishment of a gig economy.

For decades the US was the lone superpower in the world. As with the British empire we are witnessing a decline of this power and influence around the world which ultimately feeds into domestic decline.

For decades overall and generally speaking leadership and bureaucrats have served the broad public (with exceptions). We are in the midst of a transition to leadership serving the elites, a tiny percentage of the large population.

For decades the broad public through wealth participation has kept quiet and we have not seen any revolutionary tendencies in our developed societies. This is changing. Our societies are split in half, politically. We are divided and a lot feel powerless and disenfranchised. This is textbook material for uprisings and revolutions.

For decades we have dealt with minor environmental changes and the impact they have on our lives, man-made or not is irrelevant in this context. This is changing where serious questions such as the livability in Florida must be called into serious question. Unless of course residents there are willing to insure their homes at multiple hundreds of percent more premiums.

Those are all factors that have the potential to upend many decades of constant wealth creation.

Still on the same planet? Then you might want to think about those geopolitical and geostrategic changing factors...

Based on the assumption, that has always basically been 100% correct, that when a bear market ends and a bull market begins the bull market goes radically higher?

All those negative things you mentioned have to be reflected in the stock price at SOME point. When that is, I do not know. But, as has always happened, bear markets turn into bull markets, eventually.

P.S. sorry you live in the ghetto. Stay safe.

 

[Nine_Ender]

I dunno about "cresting", everything I read says they were bad numbers:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/horrible-cpi-bracing-jumbo-hike-130817185.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-grocery-prices-jumped-130-in-september-160403150.html

The market sure seemed to think they were bad, hence its cratering before this remarkable rally.

What is your read on the numbers? They were "cresting" so really they were good?

Reality is it wasn't really bad news no matter how hard the media tried to present it like it was. Inflation in NA has hardly moved in two months ( actually dropped a touch in Canada ). Look beyond the official numbers there are numerous asset classes and prices already down significantly. And these are lagging indicators.

So the thesis that the inflation number was horrible was a nonstarter other then a buy/sell the news event that likely reversed in the near future. And in this case it more then reversed, probably because earnings on JPM etc will likely beat lowered expectations. Short term all this fear mongering can hurt markets but eventually it gets stale.

 

[Darc]

It's the Fed itself, or its Members, coming out all week saying they are going to raise Rates no matter what the cost to Employment.

The initial dump, preceded by JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon scare speech, then a massive Rally. Anyone smell a Shakeout by the Institutions?

 

[SoyUnGanador]

We are living at the edge of a radically changing long term environment. For decades the middle class has fully participated in the workforce and hence participated in wealth creation. That is already radically changing. We are in the midst of the establishment of a gig economy.

For decades the US was the lone superpower in the world. As with the British empire we are witnessing a decline of this power and influence around the world which ultimately feeds into domestic decline.

For decades overall and generally speaking leadership and bureaucrats have served the broad public (with exceptions). We are in the midst of a transition to leadership serving the elites, a tiny percentage of the large population.

For decades the broad public through wealth participation has kept quiet and we have not seen any revolutionary tendencies in our developed societies. This is changing. Our societies are split in half, politically. We are divided and a lot feel powerless and disenfranchised. This is textbook material for uprisings and revolutions.

For decades we have dealt with minor environmental changes and the impact they have on our lives, man-made or not is irrelevant in this context. This is changing where serious questions such as the livability in Florida must be called into serious question. Unless of course residents there are willing to insure their homes at multiple hundreds of percent more premiums.

Those are all factors that have the potential to upend many decades of constant wealth creation.

Still on the same planet? Then you might want to think about those geopolitical and geostrategic changing factors...

I hear you MW. Not arguing any of that. It could get very, very bad.

 

[SoyUnGanador]

Reality is it wasn't really bad news no matter how hard the media tried to present it like it was. Inflation in NA has hardly moved in two months ( actually dropped a touch in Canada ). Look beyond the official numbers there are numerous asset classes and prices already down significantly. And these are lagging indicators.

So the thesis that the inflation number was horrible was a nonstarter other then a buy/sell the news event that likely reversed in the near future. And in this case it more then reversed, probably because earnings on JPM etc will likely beat lowered expectations. Short term all this fear mongering can hurt markets but eventually it gets stale.

That is very interesting Nine Ender. You obviously study this stuff, don't just read the headlines like my "pure ignorant retail guy" self does. Thanks!