facebook ipo - opinions - play by play - keep it brief

Google's biz model is far superior and diversified. FB has the social portal, but think of how intrusive the Co is and inured ppl are with google services. Search, mail, cloud, phone OS.

FB's sequential top and bottom lines were down. If that happened to GOOG the shares would be down 15%.

The killer app for FB would be payment processing, but who wants to give FB that power? Having a FB profile is like writing it on the stall at the public head. Even at 10% penetration you're talking revs of <$2B per year and perhaps $300MM net to FB, it's nothing. The bulk of the cash going to the bank, processor and V/MC.

There is no argument for revenue scalability. They will never see revs of $8B.
 
I'm just a Retail Trader, and don't understand everything Atticus is talking about, but I know the FB gang didn't get in the position they're in by being stupid.
They cashed in nicely on Friday with a high opening price, and are down today, but it's no out of control crash.
I'm sure they have a "5 Year Plan" just like the Chinese, and I think FB is more likely to go to 100 eventually than zero.

There's a good interview on Breakout called "Facebook's Future: Predicting the Next 5 Years" which goes into the Bull's Case for FB.
A lot of it makes sense to me.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/archive/3.html

I'll be going long after the Options come out next week, little by little.
What's the rush? FB is gonna be around for quite a while to come....
:cool:
 
Quote from atticus:

Google's biz model is far superior and diversified. FB has the social portal, but think of how intrusive the Co is and inured ppl are with google services. Search, mail, cloud, phone OS.

FB's sequential top and bottom lines were down. If that happened to GOOG the shares would be down 15%.

The killer app for FB would be payment processing, but who wants to give FB that power? Having a FB profile is like writing it on the stall at the public head. Even at 10% penetration you're talking revs of <$2B per year and perhaps $300MM net to FB, it's nothing. The bulk of the cash going to the bank, processor and V/MC.

There is no argument for revenue scalability. They will never see revs of $8B.
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Facebook raised 16 billion dollars in their IPO. They can do alot with that money. I'm not sure if they just started it or what, but I got a message that I had facebook email and I could use my current name @facebook.com or I could change it. With 16 billion you sure could get into the mobile phone biz, create a cloud and basically have everything right there. They might even come up with something that lets you redesign your facebook page so you could use it as a workspace.
 
Quote from traderslair:

Just a heads-up, you can short FB on interactive brokers starting on Wednesday 23rd May

I WILL !!!!!!!!!!:D :D
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No, they removed the SS restriction. It's no guarantee of borrowing.
 
Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research Group who was first to come out with a "Sell" rating on Facebook's stock on Friday.

It's not that he thinks the world's largest online social network is a bad investment.

But at $38 per share, it's just too expensive considering the risks associated with Facebook's brief history and unproven advertising model, he says.

His fair price, or "target price," is $30.

Atticus is onside to short the float so " face plant " is well on the way to zero.............:)

s
 
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