facebook ipo - opinions - play by play - keep it brief
- Thread starter bellman
- Start date
As someone previously stated wasn't the buy just above 38.00 say 38.01 about as low risk as can be found. The chances of Morgan letting it break below the figure seems slight. I don't trade stocks and expected the offering to do somewhat better on day one so I missed it but can any active equity trader miss this trade?
The "I'll buy all ya got" bid at 38.00 was pretty predictable on day one -- particularly early in the day when the green shoe was still largely intact.
The "I'll buy all ya got" bid at 38.00 was pretty predictable on day one -- particularly early in the day when the green shoe was still largely intact.
Yes, it was a predictable and crowded trade: it cuts both ways. Yes, you could buy at 38.01 but for a large part of the day your only exit was at 38.0 - if you knew to get out at 41-42 several hours before the close, well that's dandy - but how would you know this was the going to be the best price for rest of the day (possibly ever)?
I think the underwriters used the green shoe effectively and are now out (despite all the misinformation in the press saying MS et al hold billions of stock). Nobody expects 38 to hold next week.
I think the syndicate just about got it away cleanly (can anyone confirm with some actual facts?).
When was the last time a sophisticated underwriter put up their own money (in size) to peg a deal? When that green shoe is gone -- sometime within 11 minutes of the Monday open -- they may pick their spots to do some token buying --and selling -- but they know that being buried in a position is simply not good business.
On Friday they were underwriters with a job to do. Very soon they revert to being traders with a different job to do. I think FB left not a red cent on the table. There are different schools of thought on that issue; one of which is a waterlogged issue, as this clearly is, leaves a bad taste and that the company is better off coming at 32.00 and having a better first few weeks. The other school is, of course, TAKE THE MONEY!
BTW ... why would I have to know what the best price of the day was going to be to buy at 38.01? Good traders leave money on the table all the time. I would know I was going to be out before the close and that the essence of the bet was that the bid would hold on opening day. A good bet.
On Friday they were underwriters with a job to do. Very soon they revert to being traders with a different job to do. I think FB left not a red cent on the table. There are different schools of thought on that issue; one of which is a waterlogged issue, as this clearly is, leaves a bad taste and that the company is better off coming at 32.00 and having a better first few weeks. The other school is, of course, TAKE THE MONEY!
BTW ... why would I have to know what the best price of the day was going to be to buy at 38.01? Good traders leave money on the table all the time. I would know I was going to be out before the close and that the essence of the bet was that the bid would hold on opening day. A good bet.
I think we should give Zuckerburg & co a lot of credit for sticking to a pretty wacky idea at the time and making it all the way to the market.
If I had heard the idea 10 years ago I wouldn't have seen the potential even.
What interesting things may lie in store for others now blessed with abundant capital. I think someone has already tried to flog off bits of the moon's surface. Mars ??
If I had heard the idea 10 years ago I wouldn't have seen the potential even.
What interesting things may lie in store for others now blessed with abundant capital. I think someone has already tried to flog off bits of the moon's surface. Mars ??
