Extraordinary Unpopular Delusions...

[Arthur Deco]

The poster here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=189077

wants to know if he should never let a profit turn into a loss. He describes his typical trading scenario. If indeed he has a system, he could find the answer by backtesting. Why, instead, does he ask ET? Does he expect the quality of the thinking of respondents who don't know his system to be better than his own?

 

[Arthur Deco]

The thread owner here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=188371&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

says he has a system, but complains of taking profits too early, leaving much money on the table. Why doesn't he codify and backtest? One answer might be that he doesn't want to admit to himself that he really doesn't have a system.

 

[Arthur Deco]

A sincere noob here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=188096&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

is taking a four week class on trading. So far in his posts I have not seen the word "system." Why not? Could it be that his teachers don't ever want to be pinned down by backtesting?

 

[Arthur Deco]

For a long-running delusion, take a peek here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=135376&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

where the thread owner advocates pivots as S/R. What could be simpler than to backtest this assertion? You guessed it. No testing.

 

[Gabfly1]

Quote from Arthur Deco:

For a long-running delusion, take a peek here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=135376&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

where the thread owner advocates pivots as S/R. What could be simpler than to backtest this assertion? You guessed it. No testing.

Where's the excitement and drama in testing?

 

[Arthur Deco]

Indeed, M. Taon, the humiliation of months or years of failure in testing of scores, if not hundreds, of seemingly good ideas makes for poor drama. It is in fact quite pathetic and disheartening. The only good drama is in finding that one idea which works, and of course no trader ever reveals that.

For my own amusement I am scanning threads to see how often references to systematic testing appear. It is an alternative to proper orthography or Daily Hottie posting as an IQ test.

 

[nkhoi]

your picks is so random, is there a punch line somewhere?

 

[Arthur Deco]

Nkhoi, I am waiting for a punch line myself. Provisionally, it might be:

"Traders prefer the comfort of hopeful self-delusion to the heart-breaking discipline of backtesting."

But I am not finished reading yet. The picks are random because I am only reading new or very recent posts and threads.

 

[Arthur Deco]

Out of respect I won't provide a link, but this poster is home-brewing an auto-trading environment before he even has a profitable strategy:

"So my goal is to build a framework that provides good strategies a high probability of success. Once the framework is operational I can spend months and years developing trading (strategy) expertise, and hopefully in 8-12 years I'll be an expert (and financially independent)." Cart? Horse?

 

[godlike2010]

Quote from nkhoi:

your picks is so random, is there a punch line somewhere?

You've been trying to become profitable with Jack hershey's method for 10 years now with no success.. I doubt you ever see punchlines