Extraordinary Unpopular Delusions...

A

Arthur Deco

...and the Madness of Cliques (with apologies to the memory of the great Charles Mackay for the bad pun).

Ordinarily I can let trading foolishness wash over me, as it is as common here as rain on a summer day in Florida. But this:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=97684&perpage=6&pagenumber=180

made me split open my recent hernia incision laughing. So I decided to start a thread dedicated to the extraordinary lengths some people go to to imagine order where none exists. Starting with subtracting any gap from the chart, as in the above link.

Am I dead when I sleep? Do overnight events, both internal and external, have no impact on my life? Is it not better simply to accept that the overnight session tends to continue in the longer term trend direction, and to retrace significantly and semi-predictably against it overnight, and integrate that understanding into your regular session trading? How jingoistic and Ptolemaic it is in the present age to assume that overseas markets have no influence on ours, and that the world's economic events still revolve around New York!
 
Quote from Arthur Deco:

Is it not better simply to accept that the overnight session tends to continue in the longer term trend direction
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How'd that work out with today's gap?

Actually, I'm rather amazed you haven't performed a more thorough due diligence. If you had, your link would have taken you elsewhere. Before you fly too far off the reservation, I thought I'd suggest to you the possibility exists someone, other than who you believe, originated the thoughts you find so hilarious.

Either way, nice to see you posting again.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Arthur Deco:

... Am I dead when I sleep? Do overnight events, both internal and external, have no impact on my life? Is it not better simply to accept that the overnight session tends to continue in the longer term trend direction, and to retrace significantly and semi-predictably against it overnight, and integrate that understanding into your regular session trading? ...
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Intraday, market internals dominate; daily and higher, externals do. See this link.
This mechanism is behind the so-called Epps-eflect [16], namely that in high-frequency data the cross-correlations between stocks are much less pronounced than in, say, daily ones: Correlations reflect the similarities in how different stocks react to external effects and this is covered for short time horizons by noisy internal dynamics. These results offer a coherent qualitative picture about market dynamics. The impact of incoming news needs a finite time to diffuse. Hence, on short time scales, the response to them is small. The factor that determines the fluctuations of trading activity is internal: it is the trading mechanism itself. On daily or longer scales, however, the internal fluctuations have smaller importance, and the market tends to move with the global activity. In periods of "business as usual", the natural human scale of one day seems to be needed to reach a kind of coherence: News and trends can be evaluated, information is exchanged and collective decisions are made. Interestingly, the scaling of asset return distributions [11] also breaks down on the scale of one day...
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... it matters to what time frame you're trading. It's like black swans, God, etc.: if you didn't see them it doesn't mean they don't "exist" ... if you don't understand something it doesn't mean it's not so ... if you're laughing too easily you may look stupid. :)
 
Quote from Arthur Deco:

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snip.....



Do overnight events, both internal and external, have no impact on my life?

Weather does for me. So do parties and TV... I particularly like the informative channels and sports. you seem to giggle at night a lot

Is it not better simply to accept that the overnight session tends to continue in the longer term trend direction, and to retrace significantly and semi-predictably against it overnight, and integrate that understanding into your regular session trading?

Its your choice to do the above.

I work on the basis of a system that has precision. So by working through the questions that have to be dealt with, an answer comes to mind. Yours is above and you probably have to deal with its consequences.

Correcting for gaps has been explained and it is taken care of eithr manually or automatically. You rejected the thought process involved. I would say most people do not do a "carry over" nor preflight check daily. I do and it is necessary for me.

The pattern of price and how it satisfies the way fractals nest in a given market, affords traders more of the market's offer.

I do not predict or do any probability. I'm sure you have the stats and the tells for what you suggest. You have titled the thread to criticize another alternative than yours.

My stats are for the pattern and the nesting of fractals.

How jingoistic and Ptolemaic it is in the present age to assume that overseas markets have no influence on ours, and that the world's economic events still revolve around New York!

I looked at the world's trading outside of the US New York and Chicago market RTH's. The conclusion that is possible to draw is that the YM and ES are not traded very much during the hours the foreign markets are traded. Therefore the YM and ES "look like" different instruments during those hours. I do snagits on US news that is announced during other than RTH's. The movements have a "news" characterisitc, so I rate the kinds of news in "Greenspans" and I know the patterns of news. Naming what the off hours judgements are can be done; your names do not fill the bill. Choose a set of names that directly speak to no overlap of two differnt instrument characters.
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All kinds of people have all kinds of views. Their combination yields one pattern and the pattern affords a precise manner for the nesting of fractals. This makes it possible to always have the answers to the essential questions in hand. Google humpy, there are some charts there. The blank one is from 1957.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

All kinds of people have all kinds of views. Their combination yields one pattern and the pattern affords a precise manner for the nesting of fractals. This makes it possible to always have the answers to the essential questions in hand.
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Yeah you've always got the answers Jack, never asked a question in your life.. you are a braggart, a blowhard and a boor, all of which could be excused if you actually traded instead of living a lie
 
Really Jack??? LOL!!!

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2704833>



Quote from jack hershey:
I do not predict or do any probability.
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Today's lesson on self-delusion was inspired by this thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=186388&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

wherein we see a brilliant mind which can see in hindsight that a test of the previous high was "fakey." My advice is to learn how to backtest to see how often that really works. A helpful hint: "Oh, my! I need to find me a lucky coin!" The same goes for "tweezer" tops, where it is easy to get pinched. With apologies to George Santayana: "Those who cannot backtest the past are condemned to repeat it."
 
Quote from The Big D:

Every time I run into something Hershey-related, I get the giggles :D
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It's hilarious watching Spydertrader and Jack trying to tell everyone how to trade when they have never been profitable themselves
 
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